Algeria are looking to end a run of four AFCON matches without a win when they take to the field on Saturday in a must-win group game. We look ahead to it with our Algeria vs Burkina Faso prediction and preview.

Algeria vs Burkina Faso: Pre-Match Facts

  • According to the Opta supercomputer, Algeria are predicted to get a much-needed win in this match, beating Burkina Faso in 54% of the model’s pre-match simulations.
  • This will be the third meeting between Algeria and Burkina Faso in the CAF Africa Cup of Nations – each encounter has taken place in the group stage. Their head-to-head record so far is perfectly balanced with one win and three goals each: 2-1 to Algeria in 1996, 2-1 to Burkina Faso in 1998.
  • Since winning the 2019 final against Senegal, Algeria haven’t won any of their last four matches at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations (D2 L2), last having a longer winless run across the 2010 and 2013 editions (five games).
  • This will be Burkina Faso’s 50th game at the Africa Cup of Nations, becoming the 13th nation to reach that total. Only three of the previous 12 have won their 50th game – Nigeria in 2000 (2-1 vs Senegal), Cameroon in 2002 (3-0 vs Togo) and Senegal in 2017 (2-0 vs Tunisia).
  • Algeria completed 442 passes in their 1-1 draw with Angola on MD 1 of this year’s Africa Cup of Nations, their joint-most in an AFCON game Opta has recorded (since 2010), also completing 442 against Togo in 2013.
  • Burkina Faso are looking to win consecutive games at the Africa Cup of Nations for just a third time, also doing so in February 1998 and January 2017.
  • Algeria have been eliminated in the group stage on the last three instances they’ve failed to win their opening match at the Africa Cup of Nations (2013, 2017, 2022), drawing 1-1 with Angola on MD 1 this year.
  • Burkina Faso enjoyed 62.1% possession in their win over Mauritania last time out, their highest average possession figure in an AFCON match that Opta has on record (2010 onwards). Their passing accuracy of 83% was also their best ratio in a game since 2017 against Egypt (86%).
  • Despite being substituted off in the 67th minute of Algeria’s 1-1 draw with Angola on MD1, Youcef Belaïli had the most shots (4), attempted the most passes in the final third of the pitch (28), made the most tackles (4) and won the joint-most duels (7) of any Algerian player; he also assisted Baghdad Bounedjah’s goal.
  • Bertrand Traoré’s winning penalty for Burkina Faso against Mauritania on MD 1 means he’s scored in three different AFCON tournaments, only the third Burkina Faso player to do so, along with Alain Sibiri Traoré (2012, 2013, 2017) and Aristide Bancé (2013, 2015, 2017). It was also their first penalty scored in the competition since 1998 (Kassoum Ouédraogo vs Tunisia).
  • Bounedjah’s goal against Angola made him Algeria’s oldest ever scorer at the Africa Cup of Nations (32 years, 52 days). Only two Algerian players have scored more than one goal at a single AFCON tournament aged 30+: Rabah Madjer in 1990 (two aged 31) and Abdelhafid Tasfaout in 2000 (two aged 30).

Match Preview

Algeria will be looking to end a run of four AFCON games without a win when they take on Burkina Faso this weekend. Since winning the 2019 final against Senegal, the two-time Champions have drawn two and lost two of their subsequent four games, last enduring a longer winless run between the 2010 and 2013 editions (five games).

Despite being pre-match favourites in their opening group game against Angola, the Fennec Foxes were held to a 1-1 draw, with Baghdad Bounedjah’s opening goal cancelled out by Mabululu’s second-half penalty. Djamel Belmadi’s side enjoyed the lion’s share of possession, completing 442 passes – their joint-most in an AFCON game since Opta has recorded passing data (2010) – but could only convert that into chances worth 0.86 expected goals, and Angola forced them to shoot from range.

Algeria 1-1 Angola xG

Previous history doesn’t bode well for Algeria’s chances of progression. They’ve been eliminated at the group stage on the last three instances they’ve failed to win their opening match at the Africa Cup of Nations (2013, 2017, 2022).

Burkina Faso left it very, very late against Mauritania on MD 1, but Bertrand Traoré’s 96th-minute penalty eventually won the contest. The victory saw Burkina Faso win their opening match of an Africa Cup of Nations edition for the very first time, drawing five times and losing on seven occasions in their previous 12 attempts.

Burkina Faso 1-0 Mauritania xG

Like their opponents on Saturday, Burkina Faso dominated the ball. With 62.1% possession in their win over Mauritania, they recorded their highest average possession figure in a Africa Cup of Nations match on record. Yet they didn’t really threaten with it, and required a VAR intervention to help award them their winning penalty.

Algeria vs Burkina Faso Head-to-Head

This will be the third meeting between Algeria and Burkina Faso in the Africa Cup of Nations. Each encounter has taken place in the group stage. They have one 2-1 victory each, with Algeria winning in 1996, and Burkina Faso returning the favour in 1998.

The two sides last met in qualification for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Drawn together in Group A, the teams drew both of their meetings, with Algeria eventually advancing.

Algeria vs Burkina Faso Prediction

Algeria vs Burkina Faso Prediction

The Opta supercomputer makes Algeria the favourites for this tie, giving them a 54.0% of taking all three points. Burkina Faso are given a 23.5% chance of causing an upset, while the draw is an outside shout at 22.5%.

In our overall tournament predictions, these two sides are our favourites to progress from Group D:

Algeria vs Burkina Faso Squads

Algeria: Moustapha Zeghba, Anthony Mandréa, Oussama Benbot, Raïs M’Bolhi, Aïssa Mandi, Ahmed Touba, Rayan Aït-Nouri, Mohamed Amine Tougaï, Ramy Bensebaïni, Zinéddine Belaïd, Yasser Larouci, Kévin Van Den Kerkhof, Youcef Atal, Hicham Boudaoui, Nabil Bentaleb, Youcef Belaïli, Sofiane Féghouli, Adam Ounas, Ismaël Bennacer, Houssem Aouar, Ramiz Zerrouki, Farès Chaïbi, Riyad Mahrez, Baghdad Bounedjah, Mohammed Amoura, Islam Slimani. 

Coach: Djamel Belmadi 

Burkina Faso: Hervé Koffi, Hillel Konaté, Kilian Nikièma, Sébastien Tou, Edmond Tapsoba, Steeve Yago, Issoufou Dayo, Valentin Nouma, Abdoul Guiébré, Adamo Nagalo, Nasser Djiga, Issa Kaboré, Blati Touré, Bertrand Traoré, Gustavo Sangaré, Sacha Bansé, Mamady Bangré, Cédric Badolo, Ismahila Ouédraogo, Dramane Salou, Adama Guira, Djibril Ouattara, Mohamed Konaté, Abdoul Tapsoba, Aziz Ki, Hassane Bandé, Dango Ouattara. 

Coach: Hubert Velud 

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