We look ahead to Sunday’s late kick-off in the Premier League with our Tottenham vs Newcastle prediction and preview, as both sides look to respond to defeats on Thursday.
Tottenham vs Newcastle: The Quick Hits
- Tottenham are favourites to end their five-game winless run against Newcastle United on Sunday, winning 45.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Spurs became the first team in Premier League history to fail to win five successive matches despite going 1-0 up on each occasion on Thursday.
- Among the 41 fixtures to be played at least 50 times in the Premier League, Tottenham versus Newcastle averages more goals per game than any other (3.16), with 177 being scored in 56 meetings.
Match Preview
This weekend’s Premier League action is rounded off by a meeting between two UEFA Champions League hopefuls on Sunday, with Tottenham and Newcastle United still separated by just one point in the table following their miserable defeats on Thursday. Who – if anyone – will get back to winning ways?
It all started so well for Tottenham on Thursday as Cristian Romero’s looping header gave them an early lead in their London derby against West Ham, but a comedy of defensive errors cost Ange Postecoglou’s team yet again. Jarrod Bowen capitalised on ricochets off Romero and Ben Davies for the Hammers’ equaliser, before Destiny Udogie sold fellow Italian Guglielmo Vicario short with an awful back pass, allowing James Ward-Prowse to grab the winner.
Having also been pegged back in defeats to Chelsea, Wolves and Aston Villa, as well as last week’s wild 3-3 draw with Manchester City, Tottenham are the first team in Premier League history to go 1-0 up in five successive games and fail to win any. They are also the first side in the competition’s history to lose three straight home games despite scoring first in each, while their 16 points dropped from winning positions are the most in the league this season. Some might describe that as ‘Spursy’.
Spurs do, of course, have selection issues, with James Maddison, Micky van de Ven and Rodrigo Bentancur among their long-term absentees. Captain Son Heung-min was substituted late on Thursday after sustaining a knock, and Postecoglou will be desperate to see him recover for Sunday’s game.
Regardless of their injury problems, Spurs certainly need to tighten up at the back. Starting with last month’s chaotic 4-1 defeat to Chelsea, they have conceded more goals (13) and faced more expected goals against (12.84 xGA) in their last five Premier League games than in their first 10 under Postecoglou, when they conceded nine times from 12.71 xGA.
As Spurs look for a way out of their slump, perhaps their right-wing partnership of Dejan Kulusevski and Pedro Porro could hold the key. Going into Matchday 16, only Man City’s Phil Foden (23) and Brighton and Hove Albion’s Kaoru Mitoma (22) had bettered Kulusevski’s total of 21 chance-creating carries in the Premier League.
Porro, meanwhile, registered his fourth assist of the Premier League season on Thursday, his 10th goal involvement since his competition debut in February (three goals, seven assists). Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold (13) is the only defender with more in that time.
Newcastle, meanwhile, enter MD 16 four points adrift of the top four after being thrashed 3-0 by Everton at a raucous Goodison Park, with Dwight McNeil, Abdoulaye Doucouré and Beto on target for the Toffees.
Eddie Howe’s men served up an uncharacteristically flat performance as Everton fired off 21 shots and created 3.36 xG, with the Magpies failing to get winger Anthony Gordon into the game against his former club. They were also hurt by mistakes at the other end as Kieran Trippier lost possession for Everton’s first two goals, and while he has been terrific going forward, his two errors leading to goals are the joint-most among all Premier League players this season.
If Tottenham have injury problems, Newcastle have the biggest full-blown crisis in England on their hands, with Nick Pope, Jacob Murphy, Dan Burn, Callum Wilson, Elliot Anderson, Sean Longstaff, Sven Botman, Matt Targett and Joe Willock among those still sidelined, while Sandro Tonali is suspended. Club captain Jamaal Lascelles also hobbled off late on at Goodison, but Howe is hopeful he only suffered a minor knock.
Howe led Newcastle to two Premier League victories over Tottenham last season – the most recent a crushing 6-1 win at St James’ Park in April – having only won one of his first 11 games against them in the competition with Bournemouth and the Magpies (two draws, eight defeats).
He will be hoping Joelinton can make the difference against his favourite opponents. Against no club has the Brazilian scored more Premier League goals than he has against Tottenham (three), with his first-ever strike in the competition coming in a 1-0 win for the Magpies in this exact fixture in August 2019.
Tottenham vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Neutrals will be banking on this game to serve up some Sunday afternoon entertainment. Among the 41 fixtures to be played at least 50 times in the Premier League, Tottenham versus Newcastle averages more goals per game than any other (3.16), with 177 scored in 56 meetings.
Both teams have scored in each of their last seven league meetings. Spurs have netted 16 to Newcastle’s 15 across those matches, which have averaged a huge 4.43 goals per game.
There were plenty of goals when the teams last met in April, but unfortunately for Tottenham, it was one-way traffic as Newcastle routed Cristian Stellini’s shellshocked team 6-1 at St James’, going 5-0 up within the first 21 minutes.
The Magpies also won this exact fixture last October as Wilson and Miguel Almirón scored in a 2-1 away win, with Harry Kane on target for Spurs. Newcastle have won 11 away Premier League games against Tottenham, their joint-most against any single opponent (also West Ham).
Tottenham could now lose three successive Premier League games against Newcastle for the first time since suffering six straight losses against them between 2006 and 2008.
Whatever you do, don’t be late in settling down for this one. There have been 86 first-half goals scored in Premier League fixtures between Spurs and Newcastle – only Arsenal versus Tottenham (88) and Liverpool against Newcastle (87) have witnessed more in the competition’s history.
Recent Form
Tottenham have lost three successive home Premier League games for the first time since September 2008, when Juande Ramos was in charge. This run has come after they started the campaign with four straight wins at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have struggled on their travels this season, only winning one of their seven away Premier League games in 2023-24 (two draws, four defeats), with that lone triumph coming by an 8-0 scoreline at Sheffield United in September.
Going into MD 16, their return of five points on the road was the fifth worst in the Premier League in 2023-24, with only Sheffield United (one), Luton Town, Nottingham Forest and Burnley (all four) winning fewer points away from home.
Newcastle, however, tend to enjoy visiting the capital. They are unbeaten in eight Premier League games in London since suffering a 5-1 loss on this ground in April 2022, winning four and drawing four. This is their longest-ever unbeaten run in league action in London.
Tottenham vs Newcastle Opta Player Ratings
The Opta Player Ratings are something we introduced ahead of 2023-24. For a quick primer on how they’re calculated, you can check our explainer here.
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Tottenham
Son Heung-min: 84.9 (out of 100)
James Maddison: 77.3
Dejan Kulusevski: 72.5
Pape Matar Sarr: 71.5
Micky van de Ven: 70.6
Newcastle
Anthony Gordon: 76.7 (out of 100)
Kieran Trippier: 76.2
Alexander Isak: 72.1
Bruno Guimarães: 71.2
Callum Wilson: 70.9
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides:
Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction
Despite Tottenham’s poor run of form, the supercomputer makes them favourites for this meeting of top-four hopefuls.
Of 10,000 match simulations conducted ahead of kick-off, Spurs won 45.3%, with Newcastle triumphing in 27.3%, and 27.4% finishing level.
Tottenham’s defeat to West Ham came as a further blow to their hopes of a top-four finish, according to the supercomputer’s 2023-24 predictions. They now achieve that feat in just 12% of our season simulations, while Newcastle do so in 26.4%.
Both teams could be left hoping that fifth is enough for Champions League qualification, as a result of format changes in that competition. Newcastle finish fifth in a league-high 25.9% of scenarios, but sixth (22.1%) is Spurs’ most common position in our projections.
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