Two sides that have already secured their place in the Champions League knockout stage do battle at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven on Tuesday. We look ahead with our data-powered PSV vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
PSV vs Arsenal Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer is predicting an Arsenal victory at the Philips Stadion on Tuesday, with the visitors winning 44.8% of the pre-match simulations.
- Noa Lang has been involved in 13 shots following a ball carry in the UEFA Champions League this season (nine shots, four chances created), second only to Rodrygo (15 – 10 shots, five chances created).
- Gabriel Jesus has scored in all four of his Champions League games for Arsenal and could become the first player ever to score in five in a row in the competition for the club.
Arsenal head to the Philips Stadion to take on PSV on Tuesday looking to emulate happy memories from their 2005-06 UEFA Champions League run to the final.
Having won four of their five matches in this season’s competition, Arsenal will aim to win five group-stage games in a single campaign for just the second time, having only previously done so in their charge to the 2005-06 final before ultimately succumbing to Barcelona.
Mikel Arteta’s men have already won Group B, in large part because of their ruthlessness in front of goal. No side has netted more goals than Arsenal this season, while only twice have they scored more in a single group stage than their 15 this term (18 in both 2010-11 and 2016-17), a statistic they would love to match, or even beat, with another prolific performance on Tuesday.
Arsenal have now scored in each of their last 22 Champions League group-stage matches, and Bukayo Saka has been a key part of their red-hot European goalscoring form this season.
With three goals and four assists, Saka has been involved in more Champions League goals than any other player this season. His seven goal involvements are also already the most by an Arsenal player in their debut campaign in the competition.
Gabriel Jesus has also done more than his fair share in attack, managing six goal involvements this term (four goals, two assists), only managing more in a single campaign in 2019-20 (nine) while playing for Manchester City.
But on Tuesday, Arsenal face a PSV side who are also already ensured of a place in the round of 16 having lost just one of their five matches, that sole defeat coming away at the Emirates Stadium in the reverse fixture.
While Lens can theoretically join PSV on eight points after Matchday 6, the Dutch side’s home victory and the 1-1 draw in France means they cannot be pipped to second place in Group B thanks to their superior head-to-head record.
PSV certainly have firepower of their own in attack, especially at the Philips Stadion, where Luuk de Jong has scored in each of his last six European games on home soil, a run that spans four matches in the Champions League and two in the Europa League and is the longest ever home scoring run by a PSV player in their European history.
PSV have won their last two Champions League matches, as many as they had in their previous 22. They last won three in a row in the 2006-07 group stages, in a campaign they would eventually reach the quarter-final after eliminating Arsenal.
They will be without Jordan Teze and Hirving Lozano on Tuesday, both out through injury. Noa Lang and Armel Bella-Kotchap could return for kick-off against Arsenal having missed the league win over Heerenveen last time out.
Arteta has a number of players ruled out, with Fabio Vieira and Takehiro Tomiyasu not expected back in the lineup until 2024, while Tuesday’s game comes too soon for Thomas Partey and Emile Smith Rowe. Jurrien Timber remains a long-term absentee and Arteta could make a change in goal, with Aaron Ramsdale potentially replacing David Raya to get some much-needed playing time.
PSV vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
PSV have won just two of their nine European games against Arsenal (three draws, four defeats). Both wins, however, have come in their last two home games: 1-0 in the 2006-07 Champions League and 2-0 in last season’s Europa League.
Arsenal are winless in their last three major European visits to the Netherlands (one draw, two losses) since a 2-1 win at Ajax in September 2005 in the Champions League.
The last clash between the two teams ended in a resounding 4-0 victory for Arsenal in the reverse fixture, with Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Jesus and Martin Ødegaard all getting on the scoresheet.
PSV’s defeat away to Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in September (83 days before this match) is still their only loss of the season so far in all competitions, winning all 15 of their Eredivisie games and currently holding a 10-point lead at the summit.
Their 2-0 league win over Heerenveen last Thursday means they enter this match on an eight-game winning streak in all competitions, last failing to win in the 1-1 away draw at Lens on 24 October.
Arsenal’s 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday was their first competitive loss in seven outings, while it was just the second time all season that they’d failed to find the back of the net in a game.
PSV are unbeaten on home soil in the Champions League this season (one win, one draw), last going a full group stage undefeated at home in 2015-16 under Phillip Cocu, when they won all three games.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
PSV vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is predicting that Arsenal will finish the group stage with a victory, giving the Gunners a 44.8% chance of sealing all three points versus PSV in Eindhoven on Tuesday night. PSV won 30.5% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations before kick-off, while a draw was the outcome in the remaining 24.7% of matches.
While both teams are assured of their progression, Arsenal are considered the more likely to make it into the latter stages of the Champions League. They are currently ranked as fourth favourites to win the competition, given a 9.9% chance of doing so, ahead of the likes of Inter (9.4%) and Barcelona (6.2%), but behind Bayern Munich (11.9%), Real Madrid (14.7%) and Manchester City (25.9%). Dutch league-leaders PSV, meanwhile, lift the trophy in just 1.3% of current UCL tournament simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
PSV vs Arsenal UCL Squads
PSV Eindhoven: Walter Benítez, Joël Drommel, Boy Waterman, Shurandy Sambo, Jordan Teze, Armando Obispo, André Ramalho, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Sergiño Dest, Mauro Júnior, Olivier Boscagli, Patrick van Aanholt, Malik Tillman, Guus Til, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Tygo Land, Dantaye Gilbert, Noa Lang, Luuk de Jong, Ricardo Pepi, Hirving Lozano, Yorbe Vertessen, Ismael Saibari, Tay Abed.
Head Coach: Peter Bosz.
Arsenal: Aaron Ramsdale, David Raya, James Hillson, William Saliba, Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães, Jakub Kiwior, Cédric Soares, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Lino Sousa, Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Leandro Trossard, Jorginho, Fábio Vieira, Mohamed Elneny, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Emile Smith Rowe, Gabriel Martinelli, Eddie Nketiah, Reiss Nelson, Ethan Nwaneri, Myles Lewis-Skelly.
Head Coach: Mikel Arteta.