With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Premier League season in 2023-24 is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.
Manchester City are defending champions and the team to beat, though it looks highly competitive behind them, with around half the division starting the campaign with realistic hopes of European qualification.
There is set to be an equally intense battle to avoid relegation at the bottom of the league table, with playing in the Premier League now more valuable financially than ever before.
Our AI-powered Opta supercomputer will be making its match picks for every fixture over the course of what looks set to be an exciting season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League predictions, and be sure to check back here every week.
Matchweek 16
The Opta supercomputer is working at a frenetic pace as a busy run of Premier League fixtures in the run up to the festive period continues with Matchday 16.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the latest round of games, a fixture card which comes hot on the heels of a packed midweek schedule.
The system correctly picked Arsenal, Fulham, Liverpool and Manchester United to win in its most recent match predictions.
However, the supercomputer’s love of Manchester City resulted in an inaccurate call as Aston Villa recorded an impressive 1-0 win to continue a surprise recent slump for Pep Guardiola’s champions.
There is a tricky test for Liverpool away to Crystal Palace in the match that opens this weekend’s action, while it may be even tougher for leaders Arsenal as they travel to play Villa on the back of Unai Emery’s side recording that morale-boosting triumph over Man City.
City are also on the road when they play away to Luton Town, a clash which it may not be easy to bounce back in after the hosts gave the Gunners a major midweek scare, the promoted team losing an epic contest 4-3 in the dying moments.
Man Utd and Brighton will be hopeful of home wins against Bournemouth and Burnley respectively, before Tottenham vs Newcastle looks set to be a thrilling encounter for the neutrals to conclude the MD 16 action, as both teams pursue a top-four finish in the league table.
Ahead of another vital weekend of Premier League football, let’s run through the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 16: The Quick Hits
- Man City emphatically backed to end winless run against Luton.
- Wins for Brighton and Man Utd are also high conviction predictions.
- Tottenham given the edge for standout fixture against Newcastle United.
After defeating Sheffield United, the next task for Liverpool (58.8%) is an away match against Crystal Palace (19.0%) in the Saturday early fixture. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League meetings with Palace, winning 10 of those matches, while Jürgen Klopp has won on seven of his eight visits to Selhurst Park as Liverpool manager, drawing the other. Virgil van Dijk was one of the Reds’ scorers at Sheffield United in midweek. Since the start of the 2018-19 season, Van Dijk has scored 17 Premier League goals, more than any other defender. Liverpool are well fancied to win by our model, a result that would put them top before Arsenal’s game at Aston Villa in Saturday’s late kick-off.
Two wins in three matches have got Brighton back on track ahead of their home game against struggling Burnley. The free-scoring hosts are on the brink of reaching 100 goals for the calendar year, something they have only ever done once before, back in 1955. They are currently on 98 goals from 48 matches in all competitions during 2023, only failing to score in three matches all year. Brighton tend to fare well against promoted sides, losing just one of their last 12 home top-flight games against such teams. Roberto De Zerbi’s men are heavily backed with a win percentage of 61.6%, with second-bottom Burnley down at 18.1%.
Manchester United (58.0%) are another team the system fancies this week as they take on Bournemouth (20.6%) at Old Trafford, where they enjoyed an improved performance in the win over Chelsea on Wednesday. United racked up 28 shots in their 2-1 victory, their second-best total across the last seven Premier League seasons. Despite missing a penalty, captain Bruno Fernandes created five chances against Chelsea, the 22nd different time he’s done so in a top-flight game since his debut in February 2020. In that time, only Kevin De Bruyne has achieved that more often (23).
Man Utd have never lost a home game against Bournemouth in 10 previous meetings at Old Trafford, winning nine, and have only played more home games against Reading (12) without losing at home. It’s been a turbulent campaign for Erik ten Hag, but amid his side’s struggles in Europe, they’ve racked up 18 EPL points since the start of October – a total only bettered by leaders Arsenal (19) – and the Red Devils are tipped to add three more to that tally in this one.
Chris Wilder will hope to record his first points since returning as Sheffield United boss, but he faces another tough test, this time against Brentford. On the plus side for Wilder, the Blades are unbeaten in their last five league games against Brentford, all of which were played in the Championship. But Brentford have won each of their last five Premier League games against promoted sides. The hosts will have to be careful in the penalty area, as Bryan Mbeumo scored a penalty against Brighton last time out, which was Brentford’s 16th successful spot-kick attempt from 17 taken in the competition. The Bees are given a 52.2% chance of coming out on top by our predictive model, with Sheffield United rated at 23.6%.
Wolves are the most likely team to win at home this week, according to the Opta supercomputer. The hosts have a 51.0% chance of defeating slumping Nottingham Forest, who are given just a 24.0% shot after losing four straight matches, including a 5-0 thumping at Fulham. Wolves have only lost one of their last 11 against Forest in all competitions and they have an in-form forward in Hwang Hee-chan, who has scored seven goals in his last eight Premier League home games. Matheus Cunha also means business – he has been involved in a goal in each of his last four top-flight appearances for Wolves, with two goals and two assists.
Our model is more on the fence when it comes to Aston Villa vs Arsenal, although the Gunners are marginally favoured despite the hosts’ magnificent form at Villa Park. While Villa have been flying, they have lost their last four Premier League games against Arsenal and are winless in their previous eight matches against sides starting the day top of the table. Emery has fared reasonably well in meetings with his former club. Three of the five clashes have been draws, although his only defeat was the 4-2 loss in this exact fixture last season. The Gunners are rated at 44.8%, with Villa still given a decent chance at 30.0% and the draw a worthy consideration at 25.2%.
Everton host Chelsea on the back of claiming a morale-boosting 3-0 victory over Newcastle on Thursday. It was just a second league win of the season for Sean Dyche’s side at Goodison Park, and one that took them back out of the bottom three. If the Toffees had not been deducted 10 points, then they would go into Sunday’s home clash with Chelsea ahead of the Blues, but as it is, our model makes Mauricio Pochettino’s team the slight favourites (42.5%). Dyche has lost his last five home Premier League games against Chelsea, all as Burnley manager.
One of the closest matches to call this weekend is Fulham (36.5%) hosting West Ham (34.3%) in a London derby on Sunday. Fulham have lost five of their last six Premier League games against West Ham, but their huge win over Forest was their best in the top-flight since 2012 and their second straight Craven Cottage success. Hammers boss David Moyes is unbeaten in his last 13 league meetings with Fulham, a run that includes his spells with Everton, Man Utd and West Ham. Along with the Everton vs Cheslea game, this is the most likely draw this week at 29.2%.
Manchester City may have gone four matches without a win, hurting the supercomputer’s usually excellent track record for Premier League match predictions, but the system has doubled down on Guardiola’s men this week. Man City are given an enormous 76.9% chance of defeating Luton, whose win rate is just 9.1%. City are on their worst winless run since April 2017 and have not gone five matches without a win since 2009, while Guardiola has never had such a run in his top-flight managerial career, so the odds would strongly suggest the champions get back on track here. Also in City’s favour is the fact they have won 13 of their last 14 league games against promoted sides, drawing the other. Luton, meanwhile, are without a league clean sheet this season. Premier League top scorer Erling Haaland has gone two games without a goal but has netted nine times in eight Premier League games against promoted sides, so has every chance of returning to form here.
This encounter pits the highest ranked team in world football against the third lowest-ranked Premier League side in the Opta Power Rankings:
Whatever the outcome, it looks safe to say this match will provide an entertaining finish to MD 16, as Tottenham host Newcastle. Both sides are coming into this one on the back of defeats, with Spurs losing 2-1 at home to West Ham and Newcastle going down at Everton. Ange Postecoglou’s team have now lost four of their last five games, but our predictor makes them the favourites (46%), with Newcastle given just a 26.9% chance of taking the points. Tottenham have won their last three Premier League home games against sides that finished the previous season in the top four, as many as in their previous 16 (D1 L12), though Newcastle have won 11 away Premier League matches against Spurs, their joint-most against an opponent along with West Ham.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our new football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.