Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every matchup. No matter if it’s this week’s Dolphins-Ravens headliner or a game we’re not quite as excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through our model’s NFL picks.
Week 17 kicks off Thursday with the Jets visiting the Browns and ends on Sunday night with the Vikings hosting the Packers. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data and pumped it through our predictive model. Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shakes things up. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.
According to our projections, the AFC teams most likely to make the Super Bowl this season are the Ravens and the Dolphins. Baltimore’s current odds of making the big game are 30.1%, which is the highest of any NFL team regardless of conference. In Sunday’s meeting, Baltimore has a win probability of 61.4% as the Ravens look to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win.
There are seven AFC teams currently either a game over or a game under .500, and two of those teams will meet in Indianapolis this weekend as the Colts and Raiders face off. The Colts are currently the seventh seed in the playoff race while the Raiders are currently 11th and will need lots of help to reach the postseason. And while Las Vegas has won consecutive games, we like Indy in this one with a win probability of 60.9%.
Tampa Bay is looking to clinch the NFC South title against the Saints this weekend as the Bucs just need a win to lock up the division. The Buccaneers have taken control of the South by winning four straight games, twice as long as any other current win streak by an NFC team. And Tampa Bay will likely run the win streak to five straight as we are giving them a 57.5% chance of victory.
Both Seattle and Pittsburgh enter their game on Sunday with 8-7 records after important wins last week, but the teams have completely different odds of making the playoffs. The Seahawks have a better than 70% chance of making the postseason out of the NFC while the Steelers have just a 26.2% chance according to our projections. And we like Seattle to get one step closer, giving them a 60.8% chance of victory.
On Saturday, the Lions will take on the Cowboys as both teams have already clinched a playoff spot. Detroit is one win away from its 12th win of the season, which would tie a franchise win record with its 1991 team. If the Cowboys win their last two games, they will hit the 12-win mark for the 16th time in team history. We think Dallas will get one step closer as we give them a 72.4% chance of beating Detroit.
Here’s a look at all 16 Week 17 NFL win probabilities with the favorite listed first, including C.J. Stroud and the Texans tipped over the Titans and the Broncos given the edge over the Chargers despite deciding to move on from Russell Wilson for the remainder of the season:
NFL Week 17 Picks
Thursday:
- Cleveland Browns 73.4%, New York Jets 26.6%
Saturday:
- Dallas Cowboys 72.4%, Detroit Lions 27.6%
Sunday:
- San Francisco 49ers 77.9%, Washington Commanders 22.1%
- Baltimore Ravens 61.4%, Miami Dolphins 38.6%
- Buffalo Bills 85.0%, New England Patriots 15.0%
- Chicago Bears 61.0%, Atlanta Falcons 39.0%
- Houston Texans 67.3%, Tennessee Titans 32.7%
- Indianapolis Colts 60.9%, Las Vegas Raiders 39.1%
- Jacksonville Jaguars 70.3%, Carolina Panthers 29.7%
- Los Angeles Rams 63.4%, New York Giants 36.6%
- Philadelphia Eagles 80.8%, Arizona Cardinals 19.2%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 57.5%, New Orleans Saints 42.5%
- Seattle Seahawks 60.8%, Pittsburgh Steelers 39.2%
- Denver Broncos 61.1%, Los Angeles Chargers 38.9%
- Kansas City Chiefs 73.3%, Cincinnati Bengals 26.7%
- Minnesota Vikings 57.9%, Green Bay Packers 42.1%
If fantasy football is more your thing and you need a hand for championship week, check out our weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then use our sit/start comparison tool to help with lineup decisions.
We’ll be back next week for the Bills-Dolphins rematch and every teams’ finale. Some may be meaningless to the outcome of the NFL season, but the supercomputer cares not for relevance. It deals in probabilities.