We look ahead to Tuesday’s EFL Cup quarter-final at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Newcastle prediction and preview. Eddie Howe’s Newcastle side reached the final last season; can they go one step closer to doing it again?
Chelsea vs Newcastle Stats: The Quick Hits
- Newcastle have lost 10 of their last 11 away games against Chelsea, drawing the other 1-1 on the final day of the 2022-23 Premier League season.
- Eddie Howe will take charge of his 100th competitive match at Newcastle United.
- This will be Newcastle’s eighth consecutive EFL Cup tie versus Premier League opposition, equalling a competition record.
Match Preview
Eddie Howe will take charge of his 100th competitive game as Newcastle United manager on Tuesday night, as he takes his side to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea in this League Cup quarter-final. When Howe took over the club on 8 November 2021, the Magpies were second from bottom in the Premier League with five points from 11 games. Since his first game in charge on 20 November 2021, he’s led Newcastle to 144 Premier League points in 82 games – the fifth-highest total and 30 more than Chelsea in the same period.
His Newcastle side are looking to reach the League Cup semi-final in consecutive seasons, having reached the last four just once between 1960-61 and 2021-22. Last season they knocked out Southampton over the two-legged semi-final before losing 2-0 to Manchester United at Wembley Stadium in the final.
Since beating Tranmere in the second round last season, this will be Newcastle’s eighth consecutive League Cup tie against Premier League opposition. It’s the joint-longest run of facing exclusively top-flight opponents in the competition’s history, level with Chelsea’s run of eight between November 2004 and December 2006.
Chelsea have won their last four League Cup quarter-final ties, last going out at this stage of the competition in 2013-14 against Sunderland.
Mauricio Pochettino may hand a first competitive Chelsea start to summer signing Christopher Nkunku following his return to fitness. The Blues still have a long list of injury absentees, however, with Trevoh Chalobah, Carney Chukwuemeka and Wesley Fofana out with long-term injuries and now joined on the sidelines by goalkeeper Robert Sánchez, Noni Madueke, Ben Chilwell, Reece James, Marc Cucurella, and Lesley Ugochukwu. They will be hoping that another signing from the summer – Roméo Lavia – will be returning to fitness soon, but this game is likely to be too early.
Chelsea’s injury crisis seems minor compared to Newcastle’s, though. Nick Pope will be out until late into the season, with Martin Dúbravka expected to continue in goal. Joelinton and Fabian Schär both suffered knocks in the weekend win over Fulham and were forced off the pitch before half-time, while Kieran Trippier, Joe Willock, and Alexander Isak all missed the game. Both Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy are expected to be out until the new year. One boost is the news that Lewis Hall is eligible to play in this match despite being on loan from Chelsea.
Recent Form
Chelsea enjoyed a 2-0 home win over Sheffield United on Saturday thanks to goals from Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer. It was a much-needed victory following back-to-back Premier League defeats away at Man Utd and Everton.
Across all competitions, Chelsea are unbeaten in four successive games at Stamford Bridge, winning against Blackburn in the last round of the EFL Cup (2-0) before drawing with reigning Premier League champions Man City (4-4) and beating Brighton (3-2) and Sheff Utd (2-0). Their last home defeat came at the hands of west London rivals Brentford (2-0) on 28 October.
The Blues have reached this stage with three home wins against AFC Wimbledon (2-1), Brighton (1-0) and that victory over Blackburn.
Newcastle have reached the quarter-finals thanks to wins over Man City (1-0) and Man Utd (3-0) – the latter an impressive 3-0 win at Old Trafford thanks to strikes from Miguel Almirón, Lewis Hall and Joe Willock.
This weekend’s win over Fulham ended a sequence of three successive defeats for Howe’s injury-hit side, as they lost to Everton (3-0), Tottenham Hotspur (4-1) and AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League (2-1).
Chelsea vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle have already enjoyed a victory over Chelsea this season, beating them 4-1 at St James’ Park in the Premier League on 25 November. Goals from Alexander Isak, Jamaal Lascelles, Joelinton and Anthony Gordon sealed the win and meant Raheem Sterling’s first-half equaliser was in vain. Chelsea defender Reece James was sent off in the 73rd minute of the game.
Newcastle have lost 10 of their last 11 away games against Chelsea in all competitions (D1) since a 2-0 win in May 2012 under Alan Pardew thanks to two wondergoals from Senegalese striker Papiss Cissé. That sole draw came last season on the final day of the Premier League campaign at Stamford Bridge. Gordon opened the scoring in the ninth minute before Kieran Trippier scored an own goal 18 minutes later.
In the League Cup, Chelsea won their first four League Cup ties against Newcastle between 1992 and 2006 but lost the most recent encounter 4-3 at home in September 2010.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in this Carabao Cup match, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction
Chelsea’s home advantage in this EFL Cup quarter-final gives them the edge with the Opta supercomputer pre-match prediction. The London side won 37.9% of pre-match simulations inside 90 minutes, but Newcastle’s success rate wasn’t far off at 35.7%. Across the sims before kick-off, 26.4% of them saw the game drawn inside 90 minutes and forced to extra-time.
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