Sean Dyche returns to Turf Moor to face his former side as we look ahead to a crucial Premier League clash with our Burnley vs Everton prediction and preview. Can the Toffees put the hosts in increasing danger of relegation?
Burnley vs Everton Stats: The Quick Hits
- There is almost nothing to separate these two sides at Turf Moor as the Opta supercomputer predicts an Everton triumph in 35.1% of simulations compared to a Burnley win in 35.0%.
- Everton have won their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 6-0, beating Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United and Chelsea.
- Burnley have won five of their eight Premier League home games against Everton (D1 L2).
Everton will be aiming to pull further clear of the Premier League relegation zone on Saturday when Sean Dyche returns to Turf Moor to face former side Burnley, who are in danger of an immediate return to the Championship.
Dyche’s Everton have been in fine form in recent weeks, registering three straight top-flight wins over Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United and Chelsea, although their league position of 17th is far from reflective of their performances due to the 10-point deduction for a breach of Premier League profit and sustainability rules.
Sitting four points clear of 18th-place Luton Town and with Burnley five adrift heading into the weekend’s games, Everton have not let their points penalty – which they have appealed – distract them.
Jordan Pickford, Amadou Onana and James Garner all passed late fitness tests to feature in the Goodison Park triumph over Chelsea last weekend, although Dyche will remain without Dele Alli, André Gomes and Seamus Coleman for Saturday’s game. It will be Dyche’s first return to Turf Moor since departing in April 2022, with his only previous away game against the Clarets coming in the Championship in August 2011 – a 2-2 draw with Watford, in his first ever game as a manager.
Having parted ways with Dyche after 10 years in charge when battling an inevitable Premier League relegation two seasons ago, Burnley’s top-flight fortunes under new manager Vincent Kompany – who brought the Clarets back up immediately last term – have far from improved. The Lancashire club have won just twice all campaign, a narrow victory at Luton Town in October and a 5-0 hammering of Sheffield United at the start of this month.
A 1-1 draw at Brighton in their last outing will at least have boosted the mood in Kompany’s camp, though Wilson Odobert’s first-half strike was cancelled out by Simon Adingra’s 77th-minute effort. Odobert has scored in two of his three Premier League starts for Burnley this season (also against Chelsea), netting in both games in which he’s played more than 45 minutes. Only former winger Dwight McNeil (four) – who also returns to Turf Moor on Saturday with Everton – scored more goals as a teenager for Burnley in the competition than the 19-year-old French forward (two).
Taking a hard-fought point away from the Amex Stadium was impressive, but Burnley need to secure more points at home. That thrashing of Sheffield United was their first home league win of the season, having lost their previous seven.
There is little positive news on the absentee front for Kompany, too, with Charlie Taylor suspended after racking up five yellow cards this season. Former Leeds United full-back Taylor joins Josh Cullen, Jack Cork, Lyle Foster and Luca Koleosho – the latter with a season-threatening knee injury – on a growing absentee list for last season’s Championship winners.
Burnley vs Everton Head-to-Head
Burnley have enjoyed facing Everton in recent years at Turf Moor, winning five of their eight Premier League home games against the Merseyside club (D1 L2) – more than they’ve managed against any other opponent on their own turf in the competition.
Under the stewardship of Frank Lampard, Everton lost their last top-flight meeting with Burnley 3-2 back in April 2022 as Nathan Collins, Jay Rodriguez and Maxwell Cornet proved Richarlison’s brace redundant.
Everton will still fancy their chances here. Only once have they lost consecutive games against Burnley in the Premier League, doing so in the 2017-18 campaign.
Dyche’s side were also 3-0 winners when these two sides met in the EFL Cup round of 16 at the start of November as former Burnley defender James Tarkowski, Onana and Ashley Young did the damage in a routine Goodison Park win.
Everton are in their best form since the appointment of Dyche, whose side have won their last three Premier League games – against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United and Chelsea – by an aggregate score of 6-0. They last won four in a row in December 2020 under Carlo Ancelotti, while they last did so without conceding in November 2002 under David Moyes (a run of five).
The Toffees have also triumphed in four of their last five Premier League away games (L1) – winning at Forest, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Brentford – as many as in their previous 42 (D15 L23). They’ve won each of their last three, last winning four in a row on the road in February 2021.
Their form has been built on a sturdy defence; only Arsenal, Liverpool (both 15) and Manchester City (18) have conceded fewer Premier League goals than Everton (20) this season, while only the Gunners and Newcastle (six each) have kept more clean sheets so far than their five.
Burnley have earned four points from their last three Premier League games (a draw with Brighton, a win over Sheffield United and a loss to Wolves), as many as they had in their first 13 this season (W1 D1 L11). They’re looking for consecutive top-flight home wins for the first time since April 2022 (a run of three), having lost nine in a row before beating the Blades at the start of December.
Burnley vs Everton Opta Player Ratings
Before kick-off in this match, here are the top five performing players from both teams in the 2023-24 Premier League according to the Opta Player Ratings:
Josh Cullen: 62.7 (out of 100)
Jóhann Gudmundsson: 61.6
Lyle Foster: 61.2
Josh Brownhill: 61.1
Zeki Amdouni: 60.8
Vitalii Mykolenko: 71.0 (out of 100)
James Tarkowski: 67.3
Amadou Onana: 64.6
Dwight McNeil: 64.6
Aboulaye Doucouré: 64.4
These Opta Player Ratings also power our set of brand-new, free-to-play gaming experiences, which you can play on Opta Analyst all season long.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of Saturday’s kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides:
Burnley vs Everton Prediction
Despite the differing likelihoods of relegation for the two sides, the Opta supercomputer can barely separate these two at Turf Moor, with Burnley winning 35.0% compared to Everton triumphing in 35.1% of 10,000 data-led simulations.
A draw would do little to stem the increasing pressure on Kompany, although that occurred in 29.9% of scenarios, with this expected to be the tightest clash of this weekend’s fixtures.
Everton’s relegation chances are going down by the week and now sit at just 9.3% heading into Matchday 17. By contrast, Burnley’s chances of immediate return to the Championship have risen to 86.7%, as per the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.