The UEFA Champions League’s ‘group of death’ is still wide open ahead of Matchday 6. We look ahead to Tuesday’s clash at Signal Iduna Park with our Borussia Dortmund vs PSG prediction and preview.
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Stats: The Quick Hits
- Paris Saint-Germain must win to be certain of reaching the last 16. The Opta supercomputer, though, predicts that they have only a 30.4% chance of beating Borussia Dortmund (44.9%).
- PSG have lost their last three away Champions League games. They have never previously lost on four successive road trips in major European competitions.
- Kylian Mbappé has been involved in at least one goal on all four of his Champions League starts against Dortmund (four goals, one assist). Only Cristiano Ronaldo (seven) has ever scored more goals against BVB in the competition.
Match Preview
Group F always looked likely to provide the best viewing when the UEFA Champions League draw was conducted back in August, and so it has proved with Paris Saint-Germain, Newcastle United and Milan still in contention to join Borussia Dortmund in the last 16 ahead of Matchday 6.
Having got out of jail against Newcastle on Matchday 5, the French champions must win in Germany to avoid having to rely on a favour from elsewhere on Wednesday.
Though PSG beat Dortmund 2-0 on Matchday 1 with Kylian Mbappé and Achraf Hakimi on target, replicating that success might be easier said than done as they have lost their last three away Champions League games, going down to Milan (2-1) and Newcastle (4-1) this season after losing at Bayern Munich (2-0) in the last 16 in 2022-23. Never before have the Parisiens lost on four successive away games in major European competitions.
Things could have been worse for Luis Enrique’s men, who needed a controversial Mbappé penalty to salvage a 1-1 draw at home to Newcastle in their last European outing. Things are going well for them domestically, however, with goals from Bradley Barcola and Randal Kolo Muani guiding them to their eighth successive Ligue 1 victory on Saturday as Nantes were beaten 2-1.
PSG received a major double boost in that game as captain Marquinhos and teenage midfielder Warren Zaïre-Emery returned from injuries. Going into Matchday 6, only Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (four) had more open-play assists than Zaïre-Emery’s three in this edition of the Champions League.
Luis Enrique has a dilemma in attack with Ousmane Dembélé suspended for this clash with his former club after receiving three yellow cards in the competition. Barcola could replace him but will have big shoes to fill, with Dembélé’s having been involved in more shot-ending sequences in open play than any other play across the first five matchdays (17 shots, 12 chances created).
As is always the case, Mbappé will shoulder much of PSG’s attacking burden. He has been involved in at least one goal on all four of his previous Champions League starts against Dortmund (four goals, one assist). Only Cristiano Ronaldo (seven) has scored more goals against them in the competition.
With that record in mind, Dortmund are sure to pay close attention to the France star. Over the first five Champions League matchdays of 2023-24, Mbappé was the player with the highest percentage of his touches being pressured by an opponent (90%). In fact, just 28 of his total 279 touches came when not under pressure from an opponent, and he can expect more tight marking here.
Dortmund, meanwhile, secured their place in the last 16 with a deeply impressive 3-1 win at San Siro on Matchday 5, with Marco Reus, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Karim Adeyemi on target. They simply need to avoid defeat to win the group, something they last did in 2020-21, when they went on to be eliminated by Manchester City in the quarter-finals.
However, Edin Terzić’s men are struggling domestically, dumped out of the DFB-Pokal by Stuttgart last week before Mats Hummels’ early red card cost them in a 3-2 Bundesliga defeat to RB Leipzig on Saturday, which left them four points adrift of a top-four spot.
Hummels will be available for this European contest, though, and only Benfica’s in-demand midfielder João Neves (18) has won more tackles than Hummels’ 16 in the Champions League this season.
Terzić has several selection dilemmas elsewhere, with Julian Ryerson, Youssoufa Moukoko and Felix Nmecha among Dortmund’s absentees. Sébastien Haller and Marcel Sabitzer both missed Saturday’s game, but BVB are hoping to have them back in contention here.
Dortmund will hope to see England Under-21 international Bynoe-Gittens replicate his excellent display against Milan on Matchday 5, when the 19-year-old winger became the eighth different teenager to net a Champions League goal for the club. Only Ajax (14) and Barcelona (11) have ever had more.
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Head-to-Head
Dortmund have traditionally struggled against PSG, only winning one of the teams’ five previous meetings in major European competitions (two draws, two defeats).
That lone victory came at home, by a 2-1 scoreline in the first leg of a last-16 tie in February 2020, but they subsequently lost the reverse fixture 2-0 in Paris and were eliminated.
Indeed, both of PSG’s European victories over Dortmund have come in the French capital, and they have failed to win either of their two away games against them (one draw, one defeat).
BVB were well beaten when they last faced the Ligue 1 champions on Matchday 1, only recording one shot on target and creating just 0.66 expected goals (xG) to PSG’s 2.44 as they made a losing start to their Group F campaign.
Recent Form
However, Dortmund have enjoyed a real turnaround in Europe since that loss, only conceding one goal while going unbeaten through their last four games in Group F (three wins, one draw). Only Real Sociedad (two) shipped fewer than Dortmund’s three goals against through the first five matchdays.
At home, Dortmund have only conceded once in their last seven Champions League matches (four wins, three draws) since losing 3-1 to Ajax in November 2021. Their current run of four successive home clean sheets is the longest in their European Cup/Champions League history.
Meanwhile, among all teams competing in the Champions League this campaign, PSG are on the longest ongoing run without an away shutout in the competition (15 games). Their last away clean sheet came under former BVB boss Thomas Tuchel in 2020, in a 2-0 win at İstanbul Başakşehir.
Even if PSG do join Dortmund in the last 16, they have made hard work of this group. Luis Enrique has failed to win three of his first five Champions League group-stage games with PSG (two wins, one draw, two defeats), after winning 14 of 18 group-stage matches in the competition with former club Barcelona (two draws, two defeats).
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides:
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG Prediction
Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the supercomputer ahead of kick-off, PSG clinched the victory they need to be certain of qualification in just 30.4% of scenarios, with Dortmund winning 44.9% and 24.7% finishing level.
A draw will be enough for the visitors if Newcastle fail to beat Milan, and the supercomputer rates PSG’s chances of reaching the last 16 at 67.21%.
Newcastle are given a 26.1% chance of continuing in Europe’s premier club competition, with Milan’s hopes rated at just 6.6%.
Looking further ahead, PSG are given a 3.1% chance of going all the way and capturing their first European crown, making them ninth favourites overall, just ahead of Dortmund (3.0%).
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG UCL Squads
Borussia Dortmund: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Silas Ostrzinski, Marcel Lotka, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Emre Can, Niklas Süle, Julian Ryerson, Lion Semic, Hendry Blank, Özcan, Gio Reyna, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julien Duranville, Marius Wolf, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Sébastien Haller, Niclas Füllkrug, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi.
Head Coach: Edin Terzić.
Paris Saint-Germain: Keylor Navas, Alexandre Letellier, Arnau Tenas, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Nordi Mukiele, Milan Škriniar, Manuel Ugarte, Fabián Ruiz, Danilo, Vitinha, Kang-in Lee, Carlos Soler, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Ethan Mbappé, Kylian Mbappé, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marco Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola.
Head Coach: Luis Enrique.
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