Jürgen Klopp’s side head to Kenilworth Road on Sunday determined to continue their impressive start to the Premier League season. We look ahead to the game with our Luton Town vs Liverpool prediction and preview.
Luton Town vs Liverpool: Quick Hits
- Liverpool (66.5%) are predicted to claim a first away league win against Luton (12.6%) since 1987 according to the Opta supercomputer.
- Luton are yet to keep a Premier League clean sheet in 10 games this season.
- Only three players have created more chances in the Premier League this season than Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai (25). It’s the most chances created by a player in his first 10 appearances in the competition since James Rodríguez for Everton in 2020 (also 25).
Liverpool will look to keep in touching distance of the Premier League summit when they travel to take on struggling Luton Town at Kenilworth Road on Sunday.
Jürgen Klopp’s men have tasted defeat just once in their 10 league outings so far, taking 23 points from a possible 30 to leave the Reds heading into Matchday 11 in fourth, three points behind early leaders Tottenham.
Meanwhile, only fellow newly promoted sides Sheffield United and Burnley are keeping Luton off the foot of the league table, with seven defeats from the Hatters’ opening 10 matches leaving fans very concerned over the future of their team’s Premier League status.
And those worries could be deepened this weekend, coming up against a formidable Liverpool side who have tasted defeat just once in their last 21 Premier League games (14 wins, six draws), with that singular loss, against Tottenham in September, marred by VAR controversy.
Only Aston Villa and Newcastle United have scored more than Liverpool’s 23 Premier League goals this term, while the Reds have amassed the highest expected goals total (22.4). Only Spurs (178) have attempted more shots in the Premier League this season than Liverpool (176), and their average of 17.6 shots per game is their second highest in a Premier League campaign under Klopp, behind only 2021-22 (19.2).
Liverpool’s scary firepower in attack could prove troubling for Luton, who are looking to avoid becoming only the second team in Premier League history to concede in each of their first 11 games in the competition, along with Leicester City in 1994.
Rob Edwards’ men will have to keep a particularly close eye on Mohamed Salah, who has been involved in 32 Premier League goals in 2023 (20 goals, 12 assists), with only Manchester City’s Erling Haaland managing more goal involvements (33) this year. The three most recent instances of a player both scoring 20+ goals and assisting 10+ goals in the Premier League in a calendar year have all been Salah, achieving the feat in 2018, 2021 and now 2023.
This all sounds ominous for Luton, though one area they have excelled in this season has been their strong finishes to matches, scoring six of their nine Premier League goals in the last 10 minutes of games, a return that only Arsenal (seven) can beat. However, only two of the last 31 Premier League goals Liverpool have conceded have come during that time; Klopp’s men usually stay switched on right up to the final whistle.
Despite their poor start, Luton are just one point from safety and the performances of Alfie Doughty will have given fans hope that they can defy the odds and stave off the drop, with only James Ward-Prowse (16) creating more chances from set-plays than the full-back. His delivery is superb, making 23 successful crosses, a number only bettered by Kieran Trippier (31).
This week, we analysed where each Premier League team attacks from, and we found that a higher proportion of Luton’s chances created are coming from the left flank than any other team.
Liverpool edged past Bournemouth 2-1 on Wednesday to reach the EFL Cup quarter-finals with the added bonus of picking up no further injuries, though Andy Robertson and Thiago Alcântara remain out of contention for Sunday’s game, as does Stefan Bajcetic. Luis Díaz is also unavailable due to the kidnapping of his father back home in his native Colombia.
For Edwards, his team’s already difficult situation has not been aided by a spate of injuries, with Sunday’s game coming too soon for Jordan Clark, Reece Burke and Sambi Lokonga while Dan Potts and Mads Andersen are not expected back until the end of the year. One positive for Luton is that Amari’i Bell could feature against Liverpool, having missed the last three games with a thigh injury.
Luton Town vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Liverpool have lost just one of their last 10 meetings with Luton in all competitions (five wins, four draws), going down 3-1 at Kenilworth Road in February 1991.
Luton are unbeaten in their last four home league games against Liverpool, with this the first such meeting since a goalless draw in August 1991.
This is the first game between Luton and Liverpool in any competition since January 2008, when the Reds won an FA Cup third round replay 5-0 at Anfield largely thanks to a Steven Gerrard hat-trick.
Much has been made of Kenilworth Road and its hostility, providing the type of surroundings largely unfamiliar to the Premier League’s elite, but that is yet to translate into results. Luton are yet to win a home game this season.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League matches on the road, though they have lost their last two away league games against newly promoted sides, last having a longer such run between December 2010 and March 2012 (four in a row).
Klopp’s men have scored in each of their last 25 outings in all competitions, last failing to score in April when they drew 0-0 away at Chelsea.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Luton vs Liverpool Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has only Man City (84.6% vs Bournemouth at home) heading into MD 11 as bigger favourites to win than Liverpool, with Klopp’s men picking up maximum points in 66.5% of the 10,000 simulations conducted ahead of the weekend.
Luton are given just a 12.6% chance of earning a first home victory of the season, while the draw stands at 20.9% probability, a result that the Hatters would surely be delighted with.
Sunday’s game is a clash between two teams expected to be fighting at opposite ends of the table, with Liverpool given a 10.7% of regaining the Premier League title while Luton are one of the favourites to go down, relegated in 72.57% of simulations. The supercomputer is predicting both to fall short of their objectives, with Liverpool predicted to finish second behind title winners Manchester City, while Luton are expected to end the season in 19th, sending them back to the Championship after just one season in the top flight.