A vociferous Goodison Park atmosphere is promised this weekend, with Sean Dyche’s men in action for the first time since receiving the heaviest points deduction in Premier League history. Look ahead with our data-powered Everton vs Manchester United prediction and preview.

Everton vs Manchester United: Quick Hits

  • Manchester United are favourites to come out on top against Everton on Sunday, winning 44.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.
  • United’s 13 goals in the Premier League this season is three fewer than any other side in the top 12.
  • Since Sean Dyche’s first game in charge of Everton, Abdoulaye Doucouré has scored more goals (nine) than any other player for them. However, just two of those have come at Goodison Park.

Match Preview

Everton’s first game since receiving a 10-point deduction from the Premier League sees them play host to Manchester United at Goodison Park on Sunday.

There’s sure to be a raucous atmosphere as Everton fans respond to the sanction dished out for breaches of the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules. The hefty punishment, the biggest points deduction in the league’s history, dropped Everton into the bottom three, two points from safety.

It makes their need for victories immediately more pressing, though their recent form should convince them they can stave off relegation, suffering defeat in just one of their last five Premier League matches, a run that helped them up to 14th before the deduction.

They came out on top at Crystal Palace in their last outing before the international break as Idrissa Gueye’s 86th-minute goal secured a 3-2 victory, and this weekend offers Everton the chance to win back-to-back league games for the first time since October 2022.

To achieve that, though, Sean Dyche will have to get over his shocking record against Man Utd, having beaten them just once in his Premier League career with Burnley and Everton. His teams have earned just two points when hosting United, drawing two and losing five of those games.

United also go into the game in decent form, accumulating 12 points from their last five league games, more than any other side over the same period. They head into Matchday 13 sixth in the table, five points off the automatic UEFA Champions League spots.

And yet, Erik ten Hag’s men have rarely convinced this season, particularly in front of goal, where their key attacking players have been well off the boil in the Premier League. Marcus Rashford has scored just the one goal from 3.9 xG (expected goals), while Rasmus Højlund is yet to find the back of the net in the league from 2.5 xG. They are the two players underperforming the most in the competition in relation to their xG totals.

xg Underperformance Premier League 2023-24

United are yet to beat a team by more than one goal in this season’s Premier League, with their 1-0 win over Luton Town last time out their 20th by a one-goal margin since the start of last term. No other side has more than 13 during that time, while only Paul Jewell (74% – 25/34), Chris Hughton (73% – 30/41), Mike Walker (73% – 27/37) and Alex McLeish (73% – 24/33) have secured a higher percentage of their Premier League wins by a single goal than Ten Hag (67% – 20/30).

One positive has been their away form, winning three in succession on the road in the Premier League after losing on their first two trips of the campaign. It’s United’s longest away winning run in the competition since a 10-game streak under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2020.

Bruno Fernandes has been a vital part of that, either scoring (two) or assisting (one) in each of United’s last three Premier League away games, only enjoying longer such runs in the competition between February/July 2020 and July/November 2020 (both five games).

In fact, since his league debut in February 2020, only Mohamed Salah (56), Harry Kane (54) and Son Heung-min (41) have more away goal involvements than Fernandes’ 38 (22 goals, 16 assists).

Injuries continue to ravage Ten Hag’s lineup, with Jonny Evans, Christian Eriksen, Casemiro and Lisandro Martínez not expected back until December at the earliest, while Højlund, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Facundo Pellistri and André Onana are all doubtful for Sunday with various fitness issues.

Jadon Sancho remains out of the picture after a spat with Ten Hag, though United could be boosted by the return of Luke Shaw, having been without their first-choice left-back since August because of a muscle injury. Rashford sustained a knock with England but should be available for Sunday.

Seamus Coleman managed his first 90 minutes of the season for Everton Under-21s in midweek and could play a part this weekend, though Dyche won’t know about the fitness of key midfielder Amadou Onana until closer to kick-off after he withdrew from the Belgium squad with a calf injury. Dele Alli remains out, while André Gomes is also not yet ready to return.

Everton vs Manchester United Head-to-Head

Everton have won just one of their last eight Premier League meetings with United (four draws, three defeats), a 1-0 home win in April 2022.

United won this exact fixture 2-1 last season, last winning back-to-back away league games against Everton in September 2007 (a run of three).

Everton have lost 39 times to Man Utd in the Premier League and could become the first side to lose 40 games to a single opponent in the competition’s history. The most recent of those defeats came in the teams’ last meeting back in April, with goals from Scott McTominay and Anthony Martial enough to hand United a 2-0 victory.

Recent Form

Everton’s improved form has been aided by them starting to find the net more regularly, scoring at least once in all but one of their last nine matches in all competitions, winning six of those games.

United, meanwhile, have lost three of their last five in all competitions, with two of those losses coming against Newcastle United and FC Copenhagen in the EFL Cup and Champions League respectively. Their defence is there to be got at, conceding at least three goals in all of those defeats over their last five outings.

Everton have alternated between not winning (one draw, three defeats) and winning (four victories) in their previous eight league matches. Dyche will be desperate to put a winning run together to help steer his team away from the bottom three after their points deduction dragged them back into trouble.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here are the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Everton vs Manchester United Prediction

Everton vs Manchester United Prediction

The Opta supercomputer favours Manchester United to come away from Sunday’s game with all three points, winning 44.2% of the 10,000 simulations conducted ahead of this weekend’s matches.

Roared on by a boisterous Goodison Park, Everton are given a 27.1% chance of finally recording back-to-back Premier League victories with a win over United, while the teams draw 28.7% of the time.

The points deduction has predictably had a significant impact on Everton’s chances of survival, given a 96.5% chance of staying up prior to the penalty, compared to 65.9% now. The Opta supercomputer still expects them to survive, though, predicting them to finish 17th, above Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town.

Despite United’s improved run of Premier League results, they’re still considered outsiders to finish in the top four, making the guaranteed Champions League places in just 6.34% of simulations – fifth could end up being enough for UCL qualification, though.

Nevertheless, the supercomputer considers seventh to be United’s most likely finish, behind the likes of Aston Villa and Newcastle.

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