We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Burnley prediction and preview. Will the Gunners get back to winning ways after last week’s controversial defeat on Tyneside?
Arsenal vs Burnley: The Quick Hits
- Arsenal are predicted to be strong favourites against Burnley at the Emirates Stadium, with the Gunners given a 63.6% chance of victory by the Opta supercomputer.
- Mikel Arteta has faced 24 different clubs in Premier League action as a manager at the Emirates. Burnley are the only one he has failed to beat or even see his team score against.
- Each of Burnley’s last eight points in the Premier League have been collected on the road, but they are winless in their last seven top-flight trips to London.
Match Preview
Arsenal joined neighbours Tottenham in seeing their unbeaten start to the Premier League campaign end on Matchday 11, though the circumstances surrounding their respective defeats were very different. Mikel Arteta was seething about refereeing standards after Saturday’s 1-0 loss at Newcastle United, but the Gunners must use their sense of injustice as fuel ahead of this week’s visit of Burnley.
Stuart Attwell’s decision to allow Anthony Gordon‘s second-half winner to stand was confirmed by VAR Andy Madley despite questions over a possible offside, the ball potentially going out of play and a debatable Joelinton push on Gabriel Magalhães. Arteta risked disciplinary action from The Football Association by describing the standard of Premier League officiating as “disgraceful”.
That reverse on Tyneside, which came hot on the heels of last week’s EFL Cup elimination at West Ham, represented the first time Arsenal had failed to score across all competitions this season, in their 17th game. However, they bounced back in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday as Leandro Trossard and Bukayo Saka netted in a comfortable 2-0 win over Sevilla.
While Arsenal are only three points adrift of Manchester City at the Premier League summit, they have not exactly hit their stride in 2023-24. Excluding penalties, Arsenal rank 11th for expected goals (xG) in the competition this term, with their total of 14.8 equating to an average of 1.35 per game. Last season, the Gunners ranked third with an average xG of 1.84 per match.
Injuries have not helped their cause lately, and Arteta has several dilemmas to ponder ahead of kick-off. Gabriel Jesus is still sidelined with a hamstring injury, while captain Martin Ødegaard has also sat out two matches with a hip issue. He will be assessed ahead of the game, as will Takehiro Tomiyasu and Saka, both of whom were substituted with knocks in midweek.
Eddie Nketiah missed the Sevilla win with an ankle issue, and given his strong home form, Arteta will also hope to have him available on Saturday. All five of Nketiah’s Premier League goals in 2023-24 have come at the Emirates, with only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (6) scoring more home goals in the Premier League this term.
Arteta has faced 24 different clubs in Premier League games at the Emirates since taking over as Arsenal manager in 2019. Burnley are the only opponent he has failed to beat or even see his team score against, recording one draw and one defeat against the Clarets on home soil.
Saturday’s visitors are desperate for a result after becoming the first team in English top-flight history to start a campaign with six successive home defeats last week. Goals from Jeffrey Schlupp and Tyrick Mitchell ensured Crystal Palace left Turf Moor with a 2-0 win, meaning only goal difference is keeping Burnley off the bottom of the Premier League table.
Burnley managed 17 shots to Palace’s four, though those attempts were only worth a combined 1.12 xG to their opponents’ 1.3 as they suffered a sixth defeat in their last seven league games, increasing the pressure on manager Vincent Kompany. Burnley’s total of 6.55 open-play xG for the season puts them 19th among Premier League teams, above only Sheffield United (4.91).
One of Kompany’s goals must be to lessen Burnley’s reliance on Lyle Foster. The South African’s three goals and two assists make him the only Clarets player with more than one top-flight goal involvement this season, but he may not return from illness until after the upcoming international break, so Jay Rodriguez and Zeki Amdouni could lead the line again on Saturday.
Josh Cullen may return after serving a one-match ban for accumulating five yellow cards, but Aaron Ramsey and Ameen Al-Dakhil must be assessed. Hjalmar Ekdal and Manuel Benson have stepped up their recoveries with the club’s under-21s, but Saturday’s match may come too soon for them.
Arsenal vs Burnley Head-to-Head
Arsenal were traditionally the dominant force in Premier League fixtures against Burnley, but have endured a frustrating time of things against the Lancashire side in recent years.
Having won 10 of their first 11 Premier League matches against Burnley (D1), Arsenal have only won one of their last five (D3 L1).
Burnley held the Gunners to a goalless draw in north London when the teams last met in January 2022, and are actually unbeaten in their last two trips to the Emirates after a Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang own goal handed them a 1-0 win on their previous visit in December 2020. Prior to those games, Burnley had lost on nine consecutive visits to Arsenal between 1975 and 2019.
The visitors will be looking to keep things tight on Saturday, particularly given their awful goalscoring record against their hosts.
Burnley have only scored eight goals in 16 all-time Premier League meetings with the Gunners, never netting more than once in a single match. No side has ever faced another more often in the competition without scoring multiple goals in a game, with Wigan Athletic also failing to do so in 16 meetings with both Fulham and Manchester United.
Recent Form
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 37 home league games against promoted teams (32 wins, five draws), thrashing Sheffield United 5-0 in their last such match just a fortnight ago.
Arteta’s team are also unbeaten in their last nine home games across all competitions, winning seven and being held to draws by London rivals Fulham and Tottenham.
Burnley, though, will be hoping to leave their Turf Moor blues behind them when they make the trip south. The last eight points they have collected in the Premier League have all been won on the road, with the Clarets beating Luton Town and drawing with Nottingham Forest this season.
However, they are winless in their last seven top-flight trips to London, recording four draws and three defeats in the capital since a 2-0 win at Fulham in May 2021.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction
Arsenal are expected to get their title challenge back on track against their struggling opponents on Saturday, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 63.6% chance of victory.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Burnley were only victorious in 13.6% of scenarios, with 22.8% finishing level.
Arsenal’s defeat at Newcastle hit them hard in our overall Premier League predictions, with the Gunners now assigned just a 3.5% chance of the title. Man City (87.6%) remain overwhelming favourites, while Liverpool (7.9%) are considered their main challengers.
Burnley, meanwhile, are relegated in 79.6% of our season simulations, with only Sheffield United (81.9%) viewed as being in greater danger of the drop.
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