We look ahead to Monday’s London derby in the Premier League with our Tottenham vs Fulham prediction and preview. Will the Ange-ball revolution continue?
Tottenham vs Fulham: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer expects Tottenham’s flying start to 2023-24 to continue, with Spurs assigned a 51.8% chance of beating Fulham.
- With a win, Ange Postecoglou would break the record for most points earned by a manager in their first nine Premier League games, held by Mike Walker and Guus Hiddink (22).
- No player was involved in more open-play sequences ending in a shot than James Maddison (63) across the first eight matchdays of the Premier League season.
Having overseen Tottenham’s best start to a Premier League season by leading his new side to 20 points from eight games, Ange Postecoglou has the chance to make more history when Spurs round off Matchday 9 by hosting London rivals Fulham on Monday.
Another victory for the hosts would see Postecoglou break the record for the most points collected by a manager in their first nine Premier League matches, currently held by Mike Walker and Guus Hiddink, who both earned 22 with Norwich City and Chelsea respectively.
Tottenham fans could have been forgiven for having flashbacks to ‘Spursy’ performances of yesteryear when they visited Luton Town on MD 8, with Richarlison and Pedro Porro spurning clear chances before Yves Bissouma received a second booking for simulation. However, Micky van de Ven converted James Maddison’s second-half cutback to hand Spurs a hard-fought victory.
Maddison’s assist was his fifth of the Premier League season, a tally only matched by Newcastle United’s Kieran Trippier and Wolves winger Pedro Neto going into MD 9. Ahead of the weekend’s fixtures, no Premier League player had been involved in more open-play sequences ending in a shot than Maddison’s 63 (22 shots, 15 open-play chances created, 26 build-up involvements).
Maddison also has four goal involvements in his last two league games against Fulham, scoring once and providing three assists while with Leicester City. Bissouma’s one-match ban means Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, who reportedly rejected a move to Fulham on transfer deadline day, will likely join Maddison and Pape Matar Sarr in Spurs’ midfield.
Spurs have had to manage the workload of captain Son-Heung min, who has been battling a groin problem and was seen limping while representing South Korea during the international break. However, they are hopeful September’s Premier League Player of the Month will be available.
While ex-Fulham duo Ryan Sessegnon and Manor Solomon remain sidelined, Tottenham have few new selection issues. Postecoglou should have Cristian Romero available despite the defender being substituted during Argentina’s midweek win over Peru, while Brennan Johnson could be involved after recovering from a thigh injury.
The 22-year-old’s return could make Monday’s clash between youth and experience even more stark. While Spurs have named starting lineups with the third-youngest average age in the Premier League this season (24 years, 345 days), Fulham’s have been the oldest (29 years, 183 days).
Fulham can lay claim to being the only team to get the better of Postecoglou’s Spurs, winning a penalty shoot-out to advance after the sides drew 1-1 at Craven Cottage in the EFL Cup in August.
In the Premier League, Marco Silva’s men have been solid if unspectacular, moving to 11 points with a 3-1 win over Sheffield United last time out. Bobby De Cordova-Reid put Fulham ahead before Antonee Robinson put through his own net to level things up, but Tom Cairney saw his looping effort deflect in off Wes Foderingham before Willian rounded off the scoring.
Though they managed to put the Blades to the sword, Fulham have struggled in the attacking department this season. Only Sheffield United (6.11), Burnley (6.58) and Nottingham Forest (7.8) created fewer expected goals (xG) than Fulham’s 8.79 across the first eight matchdays, with De Cordova-Reid their only player to score two goals.
Striker Raúl Jiménez was replaced by Carlos Vinícius last time out, with his Premier League goal drought currently standing at 22 games. However, the Mexican scored four goals in six league starts against Spurs for former club Wolves.
Silva is facing multiple selection issues in defence; though Kenny Tete could return after missing Fulham’s last four games, Tosin Adarabioyo is out and Issa Diop may join him on the sidelines after sustaining a foot injury against Sheffield United.
Tottenham vs Fulham Head-to-Head
Tottenham have an excellent record against Fulham in recent Premier League meetings, winning 13 of their last 15 top-flight games against them (one draw, one defeat).
Fulham have failed to score more than once in any of their last 17 league meetings with Spurs, only netting nine times against them since a 2-1 home win in November 2008.
Fulham have also struggled against fellow London clubs more generally, failing to win any of their last 10 Premier League games versus capital opponents (four draws, six defeats).
They have already played four Premier League London derbies this term, drawing at Arsenal and Crystal Palace but suffering home defeats against Brentford and Chelsea.
Now-Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane scored the winner in both meetings between the teams last season, with Tottenham triumphing 2-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last September and 1-0 in the reverse fixture in January.
As mentioned, Fulham sent Spurs crashing out of the EFL Cup earlier this season, winning on penalties after a 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage.
Tottenham are unbeaten in nine Premier League outings dating back to last season (seven wins, two draws). They last went 10 without defeat in the competition between April and September 2022, a run of 13 under Antonio Conte.
Spurs have also won their first three home Premier League matches under Postecoglou, beating Manchester United, Sheffield United and Liverpool. The Australian could become the first Tottenham boss to win his first four home games in the competition.
Though Fulham are targeting their first back-to-back Premier League wins this season, they have failed to win any of their last three on the road (two draws, one defeat). They have never gone four away Premier League games without winning under Silva.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Tottenham vs Fulham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer expects Tottenham’s terrific form to continue on Monday. Spurs triumphed in 51.8% of 10,000 match simulations conducted before kick-off. Fulham were victorious in 21.7% of scenarios, with the remaining 26.5% finishing level.
Whisper it quietly, but only in their double-winning 1960-61 campaign have Tottenham enjoyed a better start to a top-flight season, earning 24 points from their first eight games if converted to three points per win. However, they are only given a 1.6% chance of capturing the title in our 2023-24 projections.
Spurs are at least among the favourites for UEFA Champions League qualification, however, finishing fourth in a league-high 25.2% of simulations.
Fulham, meanwhile, are expected to enjoy a season of mid-table security, with 12th (16.3%) and 13th (16.1%) their most common finishing positions.