We look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League action with our Sevilla vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Can the Gunners bounce back from their defeat at Lens on Matchday 2?
Sevilla vs Arsenal: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer predicts Arsenal have a 51.9% chance of earning their second UEFA Champions League win of the season when they face Sevilla at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
- The Gunners have only won three of their 17 away games against Spanish teams in all competitions, drawing three and losing 11.
- Youssef En-Nesyri has scored nine Champions League goals for Sevilla and his next strike in the competition will see him equal Wissam Ben Yedder’s club-record tally of 10.
Arsenal may have preserved their unbeaten start to the Premier League season by fighting back for a 2-2 draw at Chelsea on Saturday, but it has not been plain sailing for the Gunners on their return to the UEFA Champions League. Having suffered a surprise defeat at Lens on Matchday 2, Mikel Arteta’s men need a positive result when they visit Sevilla on Tuesday.
With late efforts from Declan Rice and Leandro Trossard helping Arsenal recover from a two-goal deficit at Stamford Bridge, they have only lost one of their 13 games across all competitions in 2023-24 (eight wins, four draws), with that lone defeat coming in Europe three weeks ago.
Gabriel Jesus fired Arsenal ahead on that trip to northern France, but fine finishes from Adrien Thomasson and Elye Wahi turned the game on its head and put Lens top of Group B, with Arteta’s team now sitting second with the three points they earned by beating PSV 4-0 on Matchday 1.
That result has heightened the importance of Arteta’s return to his native Spain, but Arsenal have only won one of their 17 previous away games against Spanish teams (three draws, 11 defeats). Those victories came against Celta Vigo in February 2004 (3-2), Real Madrid in February 2006 (1-0) and Valencia in May 2019 (4-2).
Arteta is still awaiting his first win over Spanish opponents as a coach. On his only previous return to his homeland, Arsenal lost 2-1 at Villarreal in the 2020-21 UEFA Europa League semi-finals, before a goalless draw in the home leg saw them eliminated.
He also has a decision to make regarding the only Spanish player in his squad after David Raya’s poor positioning allowed Mykhailo Mudryk to score from a tight angle on Saturday. Aaron Ramsdale missed that game due to the birth of his child, but he could make his Champions League debut here.
Arsenal will be relying on striker Jesus to continue his Champions League hot streak. Having scored against PSV and Lens, he could become just the second player to net on his first three Champions League outings for the Gunners, after Marouane Chamakh in 2010-11.
Jesus will likely be flanked by Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka, with the latter returning from injury to assist Arsenal’s equaliser against Chelsea, taking him to 11 goal involvements in all competitions this season (five goals, six assists). Three of those (one goal, two assists) have come in the Champions League.
Europa League holders Sevilla have made a change in the dugout since their dramatic 2-2 draw with PSV on Matchday 2. They twice led through goals from Nemanja Gudelj and En-Nesyri in that game, but Jordan Teze’s stoppage-time equaliser left them on two points from as many outings.
José Luis Mendilibar was sacked five days later as another 2-2 draw – against Rayo Vallecano – continued Sevilla’s underwhelming start to the season in La Liga. Replacement Diego Alonso oversaw an encouraging display on Saturday as his first game in charge ended in a 1-1 draw at home to Real Madrid, with David Alaba’s own goal putting Sevilla ahead before Dani Carvajal levelled for Los Blancos.
Sergio Ramos went close to a fairytale winner against his former club late on, and the 37-year-old should continue alongside Gudelj, Marcos Acuña and Jesús Navas in an experienced, battle-hardened backline. Sevilla’s starting lineups in the Champions League this season have had an average age of 30 years and 343 days – the oldest in the tournament.
Striker En-Nesyri, meanwhile, is eyeing a place in the Sevilla record books on Tuesday. Having scored nine times in 16 Champions League appearances, he is one goal away from matching Wissam Ben Yedder’s club-record tally of 10 strikes in the competition.
Sevilla vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Sevilla and Arsenal have only met on two previous occasions, with both games coming in the Champions League group stages in the 2007-08 campaign.
The Gunners triumphed 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium on Matchday 1, but Sevilla ran out 3-1 victors in the teams’ only previous meeting at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
While Arsenal have a poor record in Spain, Sevilla have largely enjoyed welcoming English teams to Andalusia, only losing three of their 10 previous home matches against English clubs in UEFA competitions (five wins, two draws).
Their most recent such game came against Manchester United in last season’s Europa League quarter-finals, with En-Nesyri’s brace and Loïc Badé’s header securing a memorable 3-0 win over the Red Devils.
Arsenal have lost their last two Champions League away games, though they came either side of a six-year absence from the tournament. Before losing at Lens this month, they were thrashed 5-1 at Bayern Munich in February 2017.
They last lost three successive away matches in the competition in 2010-11, with the third defeat in that run coming against La Liga opposition as they were beaten 3-1 by Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona.
Sevilla have only won one of their last seven games across all competitions, beating Almería 5-1 in La Liga last month, though they’ve also lost just once – to Barcelona – in that time (five draws).
They’re also unbeaten through their last five home games, however, winning twice and playing out three draws.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Sevilla vs Arsenal Prediction
Across 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer ahead of kick-off, Arsenal were victorious in 51.9% of scenarios.
Sevilla picked up three points to leapfrog Arsenal in the standings in 24.0% of simulations, with the remaining 24.1% finishing level.
In the supercomputer’s overall 2023-24 projections, Arsenal are viewed as genuine contenders. Only holders Manchester City (32.6%), Real Madrid (11.4%) and Bayern Munich (10.8%) have a better chance of winning the Champions League than the Gunners (7.65%), according to our tournament predictions.
Arteta’s men reach the last 16 in 88% of simulations, doing so as Group B winners 64.3% of the time.
Sevilla, meanwhile, are assigned a 21.8% chance of advancing and only top the group in 6.1% of simulations – less than Lens (20.9%) and PSV (8.7%).
Sevilla vs Arsenal UCL Squads
Sevilla: Marko Dmitrović, Ørjan Nyland, Jesús Navas, Federico Gattoni, Adriá Pedrosa, Sergio Ramos, Tanguy Nianzou, Marcos Acuña, Loïc Badé, Nemanja Gudelj, Joan Jordán, Ivan Rakitić, Djibril Sow, Fernando, Óliver Torres, Boubakary Soumaré, Lucas Ocampos, Suso, Rafa Mir, Dodi Lukebakio, Mariano Díaz, Youssef En-Nesyri, Erik Lamela.
Head Coach: Diego Alonso
Arsenal: Aaron Ramsdale, David Raya, James Hillson, William Saliba, Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães, Jakub Kiwior, Cédric Soares, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Lino Sousa, Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Leandro Trossard, Jorginho, Fábio Vieira, Mohamed Elneny, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Emile Smith Rowe, Gabriel Martinelli, Eddie Nketiah, Reiss Nelson.
Head Coach: Mikel Arteta.