If close games are your thing, this might be the week of the NFL season to clear your schedule. Who are we kidding? It’s mid-October and only two teams are on bye weeks. Your schedule is already as clear as the Dolphins as favorites over the Panthers in our NFL Week 6 predictions.
Week 6 begins Thursday with the Chiefs hosting the Broncos, and it ends Monday with the Cowboys visiting the Chargers. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our predictive model and come up with the projected scores.
Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner like the 49ers heading to Cleveland, or a game we may be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through the model’s NFL picks, boldly dropping score predictions for each. Keep in mind this model uses our advanced data only and nothing from the betting market to produce score projections, so there can be slight discrepancies in scores when considered against the percentages of our win probability model found elsewhere. These scores consider team news as of Wednesday. For those games close enough to be projected as a tie, we outline at the bottom of this piece which of those teams have a slight edge in win probability.
We’ll start with that classic clash of a tuned-in NFC offense versus an AFC defense that figures to be well-rested coming off a bye. The 49ers decimated the Cowboys last week thanks to four touchdown passes from Brock Purdy, and have scored 30 or more points in eight straight games in the regular season, the fifth-longest streak in NFL history. Cleveland, meanwhile, has gone 11 straight games without allowing 30 points. But if it’s close, pick the team with the more reliable QB, and Deshaun Watson hasn’t been that for the Browns just yet while also dealing with a shoulder injury. The supercomputer is showing San Francisco with a 61.7% chance of beating Cleveland in regulation.
Baltimore is playing its fourth road game in the last five weeks as it heads to Nashville to take on the Titans. The last time these teams played, the Ravens scored a road win in the playoffs back in January of 2021. And we think Baltimore will earn a tight one-point win on Sunday.
The Rams are 10-2 under Sean McVay against the Cardinals, but Arizona has won its last two road games in the matchup. And even with Cooper Kupp back in the mix, we have the Cardinals as one-point favorites to equal the Rams at 2-4 in the NFC West.
For fantasy this weekend, two of the three wide receivers with the highest point projections in our Week 6 rankings are on the Dolphins, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both expected to have big games against the winless Panthers. It’s no surprise that our score prediction for the matchup has the largest point difference of any game in Week 6 at 31-17.
Another wideout expected for a large fantasy haul is Stefon Diggs at 13.9 points, behind only Tyreek Hill. Diggs’ Bills are taking on the 1-4 Giants, and we expect Buffalo to move to 4-2 with a 27-17 home win on Sunday night.
Here’s one last look at all 15 NFL Week 6 predictions, featuring Patrick Mahomes guiding the Chiefs to a six-point win, Bill Belichick and Mac Jones losing by a touchdown to drop the Pats to 1-5, the Justin Jefferson-less Vikings in a potential overtime game with a Bears team that put up points last week, Joe Burrow in a similar close situation against the Seahawks, and Zach Wilson and the Jets hanging tough with a Super Bowl contender:
NFL Week 6 Predicted Scores
Thursday night:
- Kansas City Chiefs 27, Denver Broncos 21
Sunday:
- Baltimore Ravens 21, Tennessee Titans 20
- Atlanta Falcons 21, Washington Commanders 20
- Minnesota Vikings 23, Chicago Bears 23 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Vikings a slight advantage)
- Cincinnati Bengals 23, Seattle Seahawks 23 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Bengals a slight advantage)
- San Francisco 49ers 20, Cleveland Browns 17
- New Orleans Saints 21, Houston Texans 21 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Saints a slight advantage)
- Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Indianapolis Colts 21
- Miami Dolphins 31, Carolina Panthers 17
- Las Vegas Raiders 24, New England Patriots 17
- Detroit Lions 21, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Lions a slight advantage)
- Arizona Cardinals 24, Los Angeles Rams 23
- Philadelphia Eagles 21, New York Jets 20
Sunday night:
- Buffalo Bills 27, New York Giants 17
Monday night:
- Dallas Cowboys 24, Los Angeles Chargers 24 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Cowboys a slight advantage)
Week 6 Byes: Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers
Don’t forget to check out every team’s chances to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl this season in our season-long predictions. We also have weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then you can use our sit/start comparison tool to help with lineup decisions.
We’ll be back next week, when some of you may be interested in whether the Ravens can tame the Lions, others duty-bound to spend three hours watching Commanders-Giants. We select our favorite teams as children, stick with them through anything and let them torture us for decades. The supercomputer won’t judge. It only predicts.