Eddie Howe’s team are top of Group F going into another huge UEFA Champions League clash. We look ahead to the game with our data-powered Newcastle United vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and preview.
Newcastle United vs Borussia Dortmund: Quick Hits
- Newcastle United (51.7%) are favourites to defeat Borussia Dortmund (24.8%) according to the Opta supercomputer.
- The home side now have a 78.9% chance of reaching the last 16 after their famous win over Paris Saint-Germain.
- Dortmund are under pressure with only one point but have been impressive in the Bundesliga.
Whatever happens from now for Newcastle United in the UEFA Champions League, they have already provided their supporters with a priceless memory.
The famous 4-1 win over French champions PSG will still be fresh in the minds of Newcastle fans as Eddie Howe’s team prepare to take on Borussia Dortmund in another high-profile continental clash on Wednesday.
With four points from two matches, Newcastle are top of a daunting Group F lineup and know a home victory against Dortmund will put them within touching distance of a dream qualification to the last 16.
But the stakes are high and margins remain fine going into this fixture. A win for Dortmund, who are currently bottom of the pool, would see them join Newcastle on four points in the standings at the halfway stage.
After two decades out of the competition, it’s been an impressive return so far for Newcastle, with a creditable 0-0 draw away to seven-time winners AC Milan followed up by that incredible victory – their biggest-ever in the UCL – over a PSG team containing two-time World Cup finalist Kylian Mbappe, a performance that had St. James’ Park rocking.
Dortmund also recorded a draw with Milan but have been on the back foot since Mbappe and Achraf Hakimi condemned them to a 2-0 defeat in Paris on Matchday 1.
Edin Terzić’s team will now face Newcastle in a double-header knowing their progression chances are already hanging in the balance. This away match looks like an almighty test, especially given Dortmund have lost their last six away games against English sides, conceding at least twice each time.
Indeed, the German team have not won on English soil since Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored twice to seal a 2-1 UEFA Europa League win over Tottenham Hotspur in 2016, with Dortmund winning that last 16 tie 5-1 on aggregate.
Newcastle have historically been a greater Champions League force at home, winning six of their 10 matches in front of their own fans, compared to just two out of 10 on their European travels, so that adds to the scale of Dortmund’s challenge.
The hosts come into this match with incredible momentum too. A troubling run of three straight defeats against Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton could have derailed their 2023-24 season but instead prompted a sensational response, with six wins and two draws from the Magpies’ next eight fixtures.
As well as their heroics against PSG, Newcastle stuck eight goals past Sheffield United in the Premier League and added another four when they last took to the field against what had previously been a resolute Crystal Palace team. The comprehensive 4-0 win on Saturday saw them return to the top six.
In a welcome sight, Alexander Isak came off the bench after his recent injury that ruled him out of Sweden duty in the international break. Howe is spoilt for choice in attack, with Isak among the continent’s leading strikers, while Callum Wilson netted against Palace and continues to impress when given the opportunity.
The England forward now has 43 top-flight goals for Newcastle. Wilson said when he signed a new contract in September that he wants to secure second place in the club’s EPL scoring charts behind legend Alan Shearer (148). He is on the brink of doing that, having now equalled Andrew Cole and Shola Ameobi, trailing second-placed Peter Beardsley by only three goals.
While Newcastle have impressed and have their attackers firing on all cylinders, Dortmund are not exactly short of form either, so an intriguing battle lies ahead.
Julian Brandt, who scored in Friday’s battling 1-0 Bundesliga win over Werder Bremen on his 300th appearance in the competition, will be key to Dortmund’s hopes.
He has racked up three goals and four assists in BVB’s first eight league games, while no player has created more chances than his eight through the first two UCL matchdays this season.
Newcastle United vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head
Newcastle and Dortmund have never played before, so this will be the first competitive meeting between the teams.
The Magpies have fond memories of playing German teams in Europe, though, winning four and drawing one of their five previous such fixtures, having faced Bayer Leverkusen, Eintracht Frankfurt and 1860 Munich.
As well as attempting to snap their difficult recent run in England, Dortmund are desperate for a goal at Newcastle. They have failed to score in each of their last three Champions League games, having only fired blanks in three of their 28 tournament matches before that, so this streak is most unlike them.
The teams’ respective goal tallies are surprising given Newcastle have had the fewest touches in the opposition box in the Champions League this season (23). Dortmund, who were European champions in 1997, have racked up 32 shots compared to their opponents’ 18 and have never before gone four straight matches in the competition without netting, so Nick Pope will have his work cut out to keep a clean sheet.
Newcastle were flying against Palace and no team can better their record of four Premier League home wins so far this season.
This is also the first time since 2007-08 that they have won as many as four of their first five home games in a top-flight campaign and the one they did lose, against Liverpool, was a match they largely controlled until a stunning late turnaround inspired by Darwin Núñez.
Goals have been flowing for Newcastle, with 24 netted in nine league games, the most they have managed at this stage of a campaign since 1994-95, when they had 26 under Kevin Keegan.
Kieran Trippier has been an influential figure for Howe. With six assists in nine Premier League games, the full-back tops the creative charts in England’s top flight – with Wolves’ Pedro Neto – and is the first Newcastle player to have assisted a goal in four consecutive appearances in the competition.
While they have collected only one point from their first two UCL games, Dortmund have made a strong start to the domestic season. Their home win over Werder Bremen last time out was more comfortable than the narrow scoreline suggested and they are yet to be beaten in the Bundesliga, winning six and drawing two of the opening eight fixtures.
With veteran defender Mats Hummels playing a key role, they have been solid in defence, conceding just eight times, although their goals tally of 17 is notably lower than title rivals Bayer Leverkusen (25), Stuttgart (25) and Bayern Munich (26) despite signing Niclas Füllkrug, the joint-top scorer in the Bundesliga last term.
While they lost to PSG, Dortmund have otherwise been on an impressive away run. In 2023 overall, Terzić’s side have only lost once on the road from 12 games in the Bundesliga, and that was a Klassiker defeat to Bayern in April. They come into this match having won three of their last four away top-flight fixtures.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this week, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Newcastle United vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
The Opta supercomputer sees a Newcastle United win as the most likely outcome for this game.
Our predictive model gives Newcastle a 51.7% shot of winning a second consecutive Champions League match, with Dortmund’s chance down at 24.8% and the draw also a consideration at 23.5%.
As well as being rated as favourites for this match, Newcastle will like the look of our model’s overall competition predictions.
At 78.9%, they are the most likely team in the pool to qualify for the last 16, and after beating PSG they now top the group in over half (53.4%) of our simulations. There is even a 10% chance that they make it all the way to the final at Wembley, way up from 5.4% when the tournament began.
For Dortmund, things already look difficult. PSG (57.6%) and Milan (40.0%) rate comfortably higher than their 23.4% chance of reaching the knockout rounds and BVB finish bottom of Group F in 47.8% of our simulations, so they need a positive result from their trip to England or the odds will begin to look insurmountable.
Newcastle vs Dortmund UCL Squads
Newcastle United: Martin Dúbravka, Loris Karius, Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Paul Dummett, Sven Botman, Fabian Schär, Jamaal Lascelles, Matt Targett, Tino Livramento, Dan Burn, Sandro Tonali, Harvey Barnes, Lewis Hall, Miguel Almirón, Sean Longstaff, Bruno Guimarães, Joelinton, Callum Wilson, Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak, Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock.
Head Coach: Eddie Howe.
Dortmund: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Silas Ostrzinski, Marcel Lotka, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Emre Can, Niklas Süle, Julian Ryerson, Lion Semic, Hendry Blank, Özcan, Gio Reyna, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julien Duranville, Marius Wolf, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Sebastien Haller, Niclas Füllkrug, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi.
Head Coach: Edin Terzić