We look ahead to Saturday’s early kick-off at Kenilworth Road with our Luton Town vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Will Spurs move to the Premier League summit?
Luton Town vs Tottenham: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer makes Tottenham strong favourites against Luton Town. Across 10,000 match simulations, Spurs were victorious in 55.7% of scenarios.
- Spurs have scored at least twice in all seven league games under Ange Postecoglou. Nobody has seen their team score multiple goals in their first eight matches as a Premier League manager.
- Son Heung-min has been involved in 31 goals in his last 32 Premier League appearances against promoted sides (21 goals, 10 assists), scoring a hat-trick at Burnley on Matchday 4.
Match Preview
While the headline Premier League fixture of Matchday 8 sees Manchester City visit Arsenal on Sunday, the competition may have new leaders before that clash. Having overseen a staggering revival of Tottenham’s fortunes, Ange Postecoglou can lead his team to the top of the league table when they visit Luton Town in Saturday’s early kick-off.
We already knew something special might be brewing in north London, but last week’s dramatic (and controversial) 2-1 win over nine-man Liverpool Tottenham Hotspur Stadium suggested the ‘Spursy’ nickname may no longer be relevant. Spurs got a huge slice of fortune as Joël Matip put into his own net late on, but the victory felt like a watershed moment for Postecoglou’s project.
Tottenham are unbeaten in eight games under Postecoglou in 90 minutes, winning five and drawing three, though they did lose a penalty shoot-out at Fulham in the EFL Cup. It’s the best unbeaten start by any manager in Spurs’ history, while Tottenham have also scored two or more goals in all seven of their league games; nobody has ever seen their team net multiple goals in their first eight matches as a Premier League manager.
Having cast off the shackles of the Antonio Conte era, Tottenham have attempted more shots than any other Premier League team this season (138), averaging 19.7 efforts per game, their highest ratio on record in a top-flight campaign (since 1997-98).
Captain Son Heung-min has led Spurs’ resurgence, scoring six goals in his last four league games, as many as in his previous 23. The South Korean will be confident of maintaining his decisive form against Luton, having registered 21 goals and 10 assists in his last 32 Premier League outings against promoted teams, including a hat-trick at Burnley on Matchday 4.
Son and James Maddison overcame knocks to face Liverpool and should headline Saturday’s line-up, but Brennan Johnson may not return from his hamstring injury until after the international break and Manor Solomon is reportedly set for a couple of months out. Ivan Perisic, Rodrigo Bentancur, Ryan Sessegnon and Giovani Lo Celso are still sidelined, while Yves Bissouma must watch his step after accumulating four yellow cards this season, one short of a suspension.
Luton finally had Premier League lift-off last Saturday as goals from Tom Lockyer and Carlton Morris fired them to a 2-1 win at Everton, their first top-flight victory since overcoming Aston Villa in April 1992. However, the Hatters came crashing back to Earth on Tuesday as they lost 2-1 at home to fellow strugglers Burnley. Elijah Adebayo’s turn and finish cancelled out Lyle Foster’s opener, but Jacob Bruun Larsen’s stunning strike gave the Clarets their first victory of 2023-24.
There was plenty of talk about Luton needing to make Kenilworth Road a fortress before the season began, but they have lost two of their three home Premier League games, also drawing with 10-man Wolves. The Hatters have lost as many home league games this term as in their last 19 in the Championship (10 wins, seven draws).
Rob Edwards will check on the fitness of Amari’i Bell after the defender limped off on Tuesday, with Reece Burke the likely replacement if he misses out. Albert Sambi Lokonga will miss several more weeks, but Ross Barkley could return after sitting out four matches.
Luton Town vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Saturday’s game will be the first competitive meeting between the teams since March 1992, when they played out a goalless draw in the old First Division at Kenilworth Road.
Spurs, though, are unbeaten in their last nine league matches against Luton (five wins, four draws) since suffering a 2-0 away defeat in 1987, with Ian Allinson scoring both goals.
Luton have a poor record against London sides in general, only winning one of their last 10 home league games against teams from the capital at any level (five draws, four losses), beating Queens Park Rangers last October.
Recent Form
No Premier League side is on a longer unbeaten run than Tottenham, who halted Liverpool’s 17-game streak last week. Spurs’ eight-match run is only matched by local rivals Arsenal.
Tottenham have already beaten Burnley and Sheffield United this term, meaning they have won 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against promoted sides (one draw, one defeat). They last lost to a team in their maiden Premier League season in 2011, going down 3-1 at Blackpool.
Luton are still awaiting their first home Premier League win. They are the first team to fail to win any of their first three home games in the competition since Blackpool, who went on to be relegated in 2010-11.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides:
Luton Town vs Tottenham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer expects Tottenham to end Saturday top of the Premier League standings. Postecoglou’s men were victorious in 55.7% of 10,000 match simulations ahead of kick-off.
Luton are given a 20% chance of causing a big upset, while 24.3% of simulations finished level.
Tottenham’s flying start under Postecoglou has boosted their chances of a return to the UEFA Champions League, according to the supercomputer’s season projections. Fourth (22.9%) is now seen as Spurs’ most likely finishing position, though they are only given a 0.8% likelihood of winning the title.
Following a mixed few days in which Luton won one potential six-pointer before losing another, the Hatters are relegated in 64.8% of our season simulations.
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