After four successive home defeats, Sean Dyche needs a win. Will another possible relegation rival inflict further damage at Goodison Park? Here’s our Everton vs Bournemouth prediction and preview.

Everton vs Bournemouth: The Quick Hits

  • Everton have lost eight of their last nine home matches, but they are still fancied to win for Saturday’s match, with Opta’s supercomputer giving the Toffees a 44.7% chance of victory.
  • Bournemouth are still without a win in the Premier League this season.
  • The corresponding fixture last season saw Everton win 1-0 on the last day to stay in the Premier League at Leicester City’s expense.

Match Preview

Just as Everton seemed set to turn a corner, they were brought back down to earth with a shuddering halt in last week’s 2-1 defeat to Luton Town, which followed on from successive away wins at Brentford and Aston Villa – the latter of those games coming in the EFL Cup third round.

Saturday’s dismal loss at Goodison Park was Everton’s fourth straight home defeat. Only four teams in top-flight history have ever lost their first five on home soil in a single campaign – Manchester United in 1930-31, Portsmouth in 2009-10, Bolton Wanderers in 2011-12 and Newcastle United in 2018-19 (Burnley could also suffer that fate this season).

The upheaval at Everton has perhaps spared Dyche further pressure; representatives of the club’s potential new owners, 777 Partners, were in attendance at the Luton game. While reports suggest 777 is supportive of Dyche, that patience will wear thin if results do not pick up – though quite who would make that decision until 777 is officially in charge is up in the air.

Goals from Tom Lockyer and Carlton Morris – which both came from set-pieces – exposed Everton’s inability to keep a clean sheet, and it was a predictable story for the Toffees, who in spite of their lowly position in the league table, have far exceeded each of their opponent’s expected goals (xG) in three of their four home matches this term.

Although xG is a good indicator of a team’s ability to create chances, converting those chances is what counts. Everton posted 2.89 xG against Luton, but only 0.65 of that came in the second half, with the lack of a clear tactical plan on show, much to the home faithful’s frustration.

Everton are averaging 15.4 shots per game in the Premier League this season (108 shots in total), their highest since the 2012-13 campaign (16.7). They had 23 attempts against Luton, but they did not have a single shot on target following their 41st-minute goal.

Everton xG

Indeed, the only real positive for Everton is that Dominic Calvert-Lewin netted that scruffy goal, marking the third time in as many games that the forward – who will be hoping is finally over his injury issues – had found the back of the net.

Calvert-Lewin has scored more goals in the last three games than he had in his previous 21 appearances combined (two). He is looking to score in four consecutive appearances for the first time since September/October 2020.

His form is a bright mark, though fellow striker Beto is still waiting for his first Premier League goal. Jack Harrison has returned from injury, so former Bournemouth player Arnaut Danjuma might have to settle for a place on the Toffees bench, though the Dutchman is certainly able to provide a quality touch in the final third.

Everton are in desperate need of a victory, but the same can be said for Bournemouth. The Cherries are winless in their seven league games under Andoni Iraola so far. As it stands, it is the joint-longest such run by a Spanish manager from the start of a Premier League career. Iraola is level with Pepe Mel with West Brom in 2013-14 in that unwanted statistic, who won his eighth game in charge – away at Swansea City (2-1).

Bournemouth have conceded 86 Premier League goals since their return to the top flight last season, at least eight more than any other side. Overall, they average 1.77 goals conceded per game in the Premier League (416 conceded in 235 games), the highest rate of any team to play in more than two seasons.

The Cherries’ only wins this season have come in the EFL Cup. They beat Stoke City 2-0 last week, a match in which Tyler Adams made his debut, only for the former Leeds United player to then suffer an injury set-back that is set to keep him sidelined “for some time”, according to Iraola.

Dominic Solanke is Bournemouth’s leading scorer this season with three league goals to his name. Interestingly, those three goals have come from 3.0 xG – showing the former Liverpool forward is performing on track. Solanke also jointly leads the squad for key passes (eight), along with Ryan Christie.

Dominic Solanke xG

Everton vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head

Everton have won five of their six home Premier League matches against Bournemouth (L1), with their only defeat to the Cherries at Goodison Park coming on the final day of the 2019-20 season, a 3-1 loss.

The home team have won nine of the 12 Premier League games between Everton and Bournemouth (D2 L1), the only away win being a 3-1 Bournemouth victory in July 2020.

Bournemouth comfortably dealt with Everton at home last season – winning two games in the space of four days by an aggregate score of 7-1 (4-1 in the EFL Cup, 3-0 in the league). However, Everton won their last meeting at Goodison on the last day of last season. The 1-0 victory kept them in the Premier League at the expense of Leicester City.

They have only met 17 times in all competitions down the years – with Everton shading the record with nine wins to Bournemouth’s six, though their win over the Cherries in May – which came courtesy of Abdoulaye Doucoure’s stunning volley and a fine Jordan Pickford save – snapped a four-game losing streak against the south coast side.

Dyche will at least be buoyed by his own record against Bournemouth. He has won seven Premier League games against them, his most wins against an opponent in the competition. He’s won his last five in a row against them – a run stretching back to September 2018 with Burnley.

Recent Form

After winning four of their five Premier League games up until the end of April last season (L1), Bournemouth are now winless in 11 (D3 L8). No side is currently on a longer run without a win in the competition.

Everton have scored just 11 goals in their last 17 Premier League home games, never netting more than once in a match in that run. Only two teams have had longer home runs without scoring more than one goal – Sunderland (28 between December 2002-May 2006) and Huddersfield Town (24 from March 2018-May 2019).

Both teams are on four points, but Bournemouth can certainly point to having a tougher start to the season. Everton have faced Fulham, Wolves, Arsenal and Luton at home – losing all of those games – while they have played Aston Villa, Sheffield United and Brentford on the road.

Bournemouth, on the other hand, were hammered 4-0 by Arsenal at home on Saturday. They have also faced Liverpool, Brighton and Hove Albion, Tottenham, West Ham, Brentford and Chelsea in their opening seven fixtures.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

Everton vs Bournemouth Prediction

Everton vs Bournemouth Prediction Opta

Despite Everton’s dismal home form, they are ranked as the favourites to win this one by Opta, given a 44.7% chance. Bournemouth are handed a 26.3% likelihood of securing their first league win of the season, while the draw is at 29%.

In terms of the season as a whole, the latest Premier League simulations from the Opta supercomputer rate Everton’s chances of being relegated at 41.3%, while Bournemouth are pretty much given a 50/50 chance of survival (49.9% to go down).

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