Two west London rivals meet at Stamford Bridge on Saturday hoping to earn some local bragging rights. We look ahead with our data-powered Chelsea vs Brentford prediction and preview.
Chelsea vs Brentford: The Quick Hits
- Chelsea (41.3%) are predicted to pick up a home victory against Brentford (29.2%), according to the Opta supercomputer.
- Since the start of February, Chelsea have won fewer home games than any other ever-present Premier League side (two), with only Bournemouth (12) earning fewer home points in that time than the Blues (13). Chelsea’s two victories in that run were against eventually relegated Leeds United in March and promoted Luton Town in August.
- Brentford have won both of their Premier League away games against Chelsea – no team has ever won their first three games at Stamford Bridge in the competition.
Chelsea will look to continue their improved form when they welcome west London rivals Brentford to Stamford Bridge on Saturday.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side have picked up seven points from a possible nine over their last three matches since defeat to Aston Villa, and can probably feel aggrieved not to have picked up all nine having let a two-goal lead slip at home to Arsenal at the weekend to draw 2-2.
Across those three games, Chelsea have won more points (seven) and scored more goals (eight) than they had in their previous nine Premier League matches (six points, seven goals). They were profligate in the early stages of the season, but the ball is finally finding the back of the net and the rewards are coming; they are currently 10th and edging closer to the European places.
Brentford, meanwhile, make the short trip to Stamford Bridge off the back of a dominant 3-0 home win over Burnley, their first victory since Matchday 2, following a run of defeats against Newcastle, Everton and Manchester United, and draws with Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. The win moved Thomas Frank’s team up to 14th, six points above the bottom three. Three points at Stamford Bridge will take Brentford above Chelsea.
The Burnley win exhibited a much-needed ruthless streak that has largely eluded Brentford this season. They are tied with Bournemouth for the most points dropped from winning positions, with 11. Only West Ham (seven) have scored the opening goal in more Premier League games than Brentford (six) this season, yet the Bees have won just two of those matches.
With key striker Ivan Toney suspended for betting offences for the latter stages of last term and the start of this one, Bryan Mbeumo has stepped up in his absence, involved in 11 goals in his last 12 Premier League games (eight goals, three assists) and nine in his last eight London derbies in the competition (seven goals, two assists). With Toney unavailable until January, Mbeumo will need to keep firing.
Mbeumo’s excellent London derby record matches that of his team, with Brentford unbeaten in their last 12 such games in the Premier League, their longest run without defeat against fellow London sides in their league history. They have won their last three such games, never winning four in a row on the road in the capital before.
Chelsea’s London derby performances of late pale in comparison to Brentford’s, winning just two of their last 12 in the Premier League. Cole Palmer’s form will give Blues fans hope ahead of this one, though, after he scored in back-to-back Premier League games for Pochettino’s men. With a goal against Brentford, Palmer would join Tammy Abraham and Christian Pulisic as the only players to score in three Premier League games in a row for Chelsea when aged 21 or younger.
In terms of team news, Pochettino’s squad continues to be hampered by injuries, with the likes of Wesley Fofana, Christopher Nkunku, Ben Chilwell and Roméo Lavia all long-term absentees. However, Reece James and Nicolas Jackson are expected to be available having played some valuable minutes against Arsenal after recently returning, while Axel Disasi and Benoît Badiashile both made the bench for that game and could feature against Brentford.
For Frank, Aaron Hickey will likely feature from kick-off after serving his one-match suspension for picking up five yellow cards, and although Keane Lewis-Potter, Mikkel Damsgaard and Shandon Baptiste are nearing returns, the Chelsea game will probably come too soon for their inclusion in the lineup. Toney remains a big miss through suspension, as well as the injured Rico Henry and Kevin Schade.
Chelsea vs Brentford Head-to-Head
Having won seven of eight meetings with Brentford in all competitions between 1947 and 2021, Chelsea have now lost two of their last three against the Bees, including a 4-1 humiliation at Stamford Bridge in April 2022.
The last meeting between the sides came back in April 2023 as Brentford picked up a second straight away win at Chelsea thanks to a César Azpilicueta own goal and a Mbeumo strike that secured a 2-0 victory.
Their back-to-back wins in away league games at Chelsea is more victories than in their five such encounters in league football prior to their promotion (one win, four losses).
Chelsea’s upturn in fortunes in front of goal has been the leading cause of their improved form, scoring at least twice in three straight games for the first time since October 2022 to take them into the top half ahead of MD 10.
Palmer has scored a penalty in each of Chelsea’s last two Premier League games, putting them 2-1 up against Burnley and 1-0 ahead against Arsenal. He could become the second Chelsea player to score a penalty in three consecutive appearances, after Willian in July 2020, while he would be the youngest player overall to do so in the Premier League.
There was another positive last time out against Arsenal in Mykhailo Mudryk scoring what was only his second Premier League goal for Chelsea. Top scorer Raheem Sterling, however, failed to find the net again.
After this game against Brentford, Chelsea face a tough run of games, with Tottenham, Man City, Newcastle, Brighton and Man Utd up next, so there is even more need for a good result here.
Brentford’s win over Burnley ended a run of six Premier League games without a win. They have scored in all but one of their nine league matches this season, and the Bees’ goal difference of +2 is the best in the bottom half. Three points on Saturday will move Frank’s men onto 13 points and see them leapfrog Chelsea in the league table.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
Chelsea vs Brentford Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Chelsea to keep up their improved form by coming away from Saturday’s derby against Brentford with all three points; Pochettino’s men won 41.3% of the 10,000 simulations ahead of the weekend.
Brentford are given a 29.2% chance of recording a third straight victory at Stamford Bridge, their second away win of the season in west London having beaten Fulham 3-0 at Craven Cottage in August, while the teams sharing the spoils happened in 29.5% of simulations.
Both Chelsea and Brentford are expected to be mid-table this season, with the former predicted to finish 10th, with a 1.2% chance of finishing in the Europa League spots, and very, very little chance of making it into the Champions League. Meanwhile, the Bees’ most likely finishing position is 14th, relegated in just 0.4% of Opta’s 10,000 simulations.