With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Premier League season in 2023-24 promises to be one of the best in recent memory.
Manchester City are defending champions and the team to beat, though it looks highly competitive behind them, with around half the division starting the campaign with realistic hopes of European qualification.
There is set to be an equally intense battle to avoid relegation at the bottom of the league table, with playing in the Premier League now more valuable financially than ever before.
Our AI-powered Opta supercomputer will be making its match picks for every fixture over the course of what looks set to be an exciting season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League predictions, and be sure to check back here every week.
Matchweek 7
The Opta supercomputer has enjoyed a very good start to the season, but it’s fair to say last week’s Premier League action was more of a mixed bag for the system.
Most importantly, its top three Premier League match predictions were successful, with Manchester City easing past Nottingham Forest despite a sending off for Rodri, Liverpool comfortably seeing off West Ham at Anfield and Brighton continuing their fine campaign with a home victory over Bournemouth.
But the supercomputer was taken by surprise as Brentford lost at home to struggling Everton and wrongly backed Chelsea for the third consecutive week, with the Blues falling to a home defeat against Aston Villa.
Chelsea are away to Fulham this week, so it will be interesting to see whether the supercomputer has finally turned against the Blues, while Tottenham vs Liverpool looks like the best match of the week after Spurs’ dramatic derby draw at Arsenal.
Without further ado, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s Matchday 7 predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 7: The Quick Hits
- Liverpool given edge over Tottenham in battle between unbeaten sides.
- Rampant leaders Man City favoured to record a seventh straight win.
- Man Utd, Newcastle and Arsenal all tipped to prevail this week.
Eight of the games in Matchday 7 will take place on Saturday, starting with an intriguing early fixture between Aston Villa (37.7%) and Brighton (33.3%), who both sit inside the top six. Villa have won their last four Premier League games against Brighton and are on a run of nine consecutive home wins in the competition, their best streak for 40 years. Both sides have been involved in some entertaining fixtures this season, and it’s part of a longer run for Brighton, who have netted in 22 consecutive Premier League games, scoring 51 times, while only keeping six clean sheets in that sequence. They are still waiting for their first shutout in 2023-24.
Villa have been impressive under Unai Emery and, since they beat Everton at Goodison Park on 25 February, only champions Manchester City (55) and Liverpool (48) have won more than their 45 points, while striker Ollie Watkins, who scored against Chelsea last week, has netted in three straight matches against Brighton. The system is really struggling to pick an obvious winner in this one, with Villa given the most marginal edge and the draw a real possibility at 29.0%.
Bournemouth are one of only four EPL teams who are yet to win going into their home contest with Arsenal, with the system predicting their wait for a victory will continue. The supercomputer thinks the Gunners will prevail and, across all 10 fixtures, is only more confident in Man City this week. Arsenal are strong favourites at 56.4%, with the hosts way down at 18.4%, partly because Mikel Arteta’s team have scored at least once in all 12 of their Premier League games against Bournemouth (29 goals in total). The struggling Cherries are winless in 10 league matches, collecting a total of just three points, while Arsenal have had two solid away wins so far, 1-0 victories over Crystal Palace and Everton. This could be the third time they have won their first three EPL away games, after doing so in 2004-05 and 2013-14. Look out for in-form Bukayo Saka, who has four goals and two assists in his last seven top-flight appearances and a total of 30 goal involvements since the start of last season. The England star has extra motivation this weekend, as Bournemouth are one of only three teams he is yet to score against in the competition (Burnley and Leicester City are the others).
Following a shock win for Everton at Brentford, a Goodison Park clash with promoted side Luton Town gives them a rare chance to secure two consecutive top-flight victories. The system gives the hosts the edge at 45.7% but is not ruling out Luton (26.5%) adding to their sole point gained so far. It’s been a miserable start at home for Everton, who have lost their first three matches without scoring. They are looking to avoid suffering a fourth straight loss to start a home league campaign for the first time since 1958. Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s strike in the crucial Brentford triumph means he is two away from becoming just the fourth player to score 50 Premier League goals for the Toffees after Romelu Lukaku (68), Duncan Ferguson (60) and Tim Cahill (56). Everton will have even more confidence ahead of this match following their EFL Cup win at Aston Villa in midweek, while Luton were dumped out of the trophy by League One side Exeter City on Tuesday.
Manchester United (51.3%) will play Crystal Palace (21.3%) for the second time in five days and Erik ten Hag’s men are backed to emerge triumphant like they did in the Carabao Cup. The Red Devils suffered defeat in their last home Premier League game, losing 3-1 against Brighton, but have not lost consecutive top-flight matches at Old Trafford for almost two years, since Liverpool and Man City beat them in the last two such contests managed by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Man United steadied the ship with an away win at Burnley before a more comfortable win over Palace in the cup, though both sides made changes on Tuesday. For Palace, Roy Hodgson is looking to become the first manager in Premier League history to go unbeaten in five straight EPL away games against Man Utd. United will have to be wary of Eberechi Eze, who has 42 combined shots and chances created in the division this season, more than any other player.
Travelling to play Newcastle United one week after they recorded one of the biggest wins in Premier League history and then beat 2022-23 treble winners Man City in the EFL cup on Wednesday night is the last thing struggling Burnley needed and, unsurprisingly, Eddie Howe’s men are favoured to capitalise on their momentum. Newcastle have won their last four Premier League games against Burnley and earned 19 points from a possible 27 in their last nine home matches against them. Anthony Gordon comes into the game on a high as he continues to add an end product to his lively wing play. He has been directly involved in five goals in his last seven Premier League games, which is one more than in his previous 47 combined for Everton and Newcastle. A Newcastle win is the most likely outcome at 52.5%, but Burnley (20.4%) are seen as having a fighting chance of getting something from the game, with the draw at 27.1%.
West Ham (52.8%) will be eyeing the opportunity to bounce back from their losses to Man City and Liverpool when they take on Sheffield United (20.1%) at home. The Opta supercomputer is not always overly kind to David Moyes’ team, but this week they are the most likely home team to record a victory, according to our model. Since losing to Forest at the start of last season, it’s been an impressive six wins on the bounce for West Ham against promoted teams from the Championship, their longest ever run. They have been ruthless when playing teams stuck to the bottom of the table, with nine straight victories in those matches. Jarrod Bowen has scored four goals in six appearances this season and has been directly involved in 12 goals in his last 13 league games against promoted sides with six goals and six assists.
Wolves will not be relishing their assignment as they look to stop rampant Manchester City from racking up a seventh consecutive Premier League victory to start their title defence. Wolves (14.4%) should not give up all hope, but at 62.0% Man City are clear favourites and the most confident match prediction from the supercomputer once again this week. Having done the Premier League double over Man City in 2019-20, Wolves have since lost the last six meetings by an aggregate score of 19-3. City have never won their first seven matches of an EPL season, a feat which has only been achieved by Chelsea (2005-06) and Liverpool (2019-20) before.
Pep Guardiola’s dominant team have earned 71 points in the Premier League in 2023, which is 16 more than any other side and 39 more than opponents Wolves have. They have also netted the most goals (66) and conceded the fewest (20) of any side to play in both Premier League seasons. And top scorer Erling Haaland has already raced up to eight goals. Based on all those numbers, the only hope for Wolves may be that the suspension for Rodri has an impact, especially given City have lost four of the last 14 top-flight games the Spain midfielder has missed.
Two unbeaten sides will do battle when Tottenham (29.2%) host Liverpool (43.9%) in what looks like the standout Premier League fixture in MD 7. The Reds are given a marginal edge but the system is keeping its options open, with the draw not discounted at 26.9%. Mohamed Salah is flying, having now had a goal involvement in 12 straight Premier League appearances, with three goals and four assists from his six outings this season. He could match David Beckham for Man Utd in 2000-01 and Haaland for Man City in 2022-23 and become only the third player to have seven matches in a row with a goal involvement to start a campaign. Liverpool have scored at least once in each of their last 15 Premier League games against Tottenham, though Spurs have also been a goal threat in this fixture, with the Reds only managing two clean sheets as part of that run. Indeed, both teams have scored in each of the last six meetings. It it is a tough one to call for our predictive model, but, as is often the case given Liverpool’s track record, it tends to lean in the Reds’ direction as they bid to continue a 17-match run without losing.
The only game on Sunday sees Nottingham Forest (29.6%) take on a Brentford (41.6%) side who suddenly find themselves under pressure after winning only one of their first six matches. Forest are winless in their last four league games against Brentford and it is the Bees who are given the narrow edge in this match. But beating Forest at the City Ground is no easy task, with Steve Cooper’s men having lost just two of their last 17 home Premier League matches, both of which came against teams who made the top four last season to reach the UEFA Champions League (Newcastle and Man Utd). Morgan Gibbs-White is due a goal. Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandez (13) is the only player to have more shots without scoring in the 2023-24 campaign than Gibbs-White (12), who has fond memories of this fixture having scored in it last season.
Fulham versus Chelsea in a big London derby on Monday night rounds out the week, with the Blues desperate for a result after only collecting five points from their first six games. Fulham turned the tables on Chelsea last season, picking up four points from the two games, as many as they had earned in their previous 15. In a worrying statistic for Chelsea, they are winless in their last 18 top-flight matches against sides who start the day above them in the table, with the Cottagers sitting three points ahead of them coming into the contest. However, Fulham have their own problems, as they are winless in their last nine Premier League London derbies. This final game of MD 7 is also seen as the most likely encounter to end up as a draw, with that chance at 29.9%. The system gives a narrow edge to Chelsea, but there isn’t much conviction with the Blues at 39.7% and Fulham at 30.4%, so an unpredictable battle lies ahead.
Even though Chelsea are below Fulham in the Premier League table coming into Matchday 7, Mauricio Pochettino’s side are just above west London rivals Fulham in the Opta Power Rankings:
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