We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League tussle at Goodison Park with our Everton vs Luton Town prediction and preview. Can Luton pick up their first win of the campaign?
Everton vs Luton Town: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer makes Everton favourites for Saturday’s six-pointer, giving the hosts a 45.7% chance of beating Luton Town.
- Everton are looking to win successive Premier League games for the first time under Sean Dyche. Their last back-to-back wins came under Frank Lampard last year.
- Luton are yet to take the lead in five Premier League matches this season. Norwich City were the last team to fail to go ahead in their first six games of a top-flight campaign in 2021-22 – their sixth game was a 2-0 defeat at Everton.
Luton Town are finally off the mark in the Premier League after Carlton Morris’ penalty salvaged a 1-1 draw with 10-man Wolves last Saturday, though the Hatters might see that result as something of a missed opportunity. With fellow strugglers Everton up next, can Rob Edwards’ team turn one point into three?
Luton failed to take full advantage of their numerical superiority after Wolves’ Jean-Ricner Bellegarde was dismissed for kicking out at Tom Lockyer, and they remain the only Premier League side yet to lead at any point this season. Things then went from bad to worse on Tuesday as a much-changed side was dumped out of the EFL Cup by Exeter City.
The last team to fail to go ahead in their first six games of a Premier League campaign was Norwich City in 2021-22, who suffered a 2-0 defeat at Everton in their sixth game. If Luton are to avoid a similar fate, they must improve in the final third.
Luton have posted better expected goals (xG) figures (6.66) than Nottingham Forest (6.28), Fulham (5.51), Sheffield United (4.47) and Burnley (4.06), despite the first three playing one game more. However, the Hatters are the Premier League’s lowest scorers with just three goals and have the division’s worst shot conversion rate (4.76%).
Morris has contributed to all three of their goals, converting two penalties and assisting Mads Andersen’s consolation against West Ham. He could become just the third player to be involved in a club’s first four Premier League goals, after David White for Manchester City in 1992-93 and Pascal Groß for Brighton and Hove Albion in 2017-18.
If Luton are to lessen their reliance on Morris, Alfie Doughty‘s partnership with Jacob Brown could be key. Doughty created four chances for Brown against Wolves, the most any player has created for one teammate in a Premier League game this term. Ross Barkley could return to the lineup against his former club, with a hamstring injury keeping Albert Sambi Lokonga out.
Everton, meanwhile, earned a much-needed 3-1 win at Brentford last Saturday, moving three points clear of Luton. The Toffees are now looking to win successive Premier League games for the first time under Sean Dyche, with their last pair of back-to-back victories coming under Frank Lampard between September and October 2022.
Abdoulaye Doucouré, James Tarkowski and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were on target in west London, the latter netting his 48th Premier League goal for Everton. Only Romelu Lukaku (68), Duncan Ferguson (60) and Tim Cahill (56) have previously reached 50 goals in the competition for them.
Dyche is yet to field Calvert-Lewin alongside fellow striker Beto, who has had a positive impact since arriving from Udinese. Although only Luton and Burnley (four) have scored fewer than Everton’s five Premier League goals this term, their attacking numbers make for positive reading.
Having averaged 11.3 shots per game in the Premier League last season, Everton are averaging 14.2 in 2023-24, their highest in a season since 2013-14 under Roberto Martínez (14.8).
In a further boost, Jack Harrison could make his first league appearance for Everton since arriving on loan from Leeds United after recovering from a hip injury. Harrison started Wednesday’s EFL Cup win at Aston Villa, though he may be limited to a substitute role for this one after Dwight McNeil and James Garner impressed against Brentford.
Everton vs Luton Town Head-to-Head
Saturday’s game will be the first meeting between Everton and Luton since October 2007, when the Toffees secured a 1-0 extra-time win at Kenilworth Road in the League Cup.
The Hatters’ most recent trip to Goodison Park came in another League Cup tie 12 months earlier when they were thrashed 4-0 in the third round.
Luton are winless in their six previous league games against Everton (three draws, three defeats), with this the first such meeting between the teams since a 1-1 draw at Goodison Park in March 1992.
Luton could start a season with a six-game winless run for the fourth time in their Football League history, having been unable to record a win against any of Brighton, Chelsea, West Ham, Fulham or Wolves.
The Hatters failed to win any of their first seven games in the 1959-60 and 1971-72 campaigns, before going nine without a victory to start 1974-75.
Everton, meanwhile, are looking to end a miserable run at Goodison Park, having lost their last three home league games without scoring (vs. Fulham, Wolves and Arsenal). They have only started a campaign with four successive home defeats on one previous occasion, in 1958-59.
There have only been four instances of a team failing to net in their first four home games of an English top-flight season, most recently Crystal Palace and Huddersfield Town in 2018-19. No team has ever lost their first four home matches of a top-flight season without scoring.
They climbed up the Premier League table with their win at Brentford though, and seemed to indicate this is a more substantial return to form after also winning 2-1 at Aston Villa in the EFL Cup on Wednesday. The return to fitness of Calvert-Lewin has already made a big difference.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Everton vs Luton Town Prediction
Everton are given a 45.7% chance of victory on Saturday, with the supercomputer making them favourites to triumph in this early-season relegation six-pointer.
That means Luton are assigned a 54.3% chance of getting at least a point at full-time. Luton were victorious in 26.5% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 match simulations ahead of kick-off, with 27.8% finishing level.
Looking further ahead, Everton’s win at Brentford saw their chances of relegation dip to 26.1%. The supercomputer holds out less hope for Luton, though, giving them a 75.3% chance of an immediate return to the Championship.