After picking up his first win as Chelsea boss, Mauricio Pochettino will want his side to keep up the momentum. Our Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest prediction provides the key insights.
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest: Quick Hits
- Chelsea are big favourites to beat Nottingham Forest at Stamford Bridge in this 3pm kick-off on Saturday, with the Opta supercomputer handing the Blues a 58.2% chance of victory.
- Forest have won just one of their last 14 away games against Chelsea in all competitions (D5 L8).
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last nine meetings with Nottingham Forest in all competitions since a 2-0 loss in January 1997.
Mauricio Pochettino claimed his first win as Blues boss last time out in the Premier League, with the Blues dispatching Luton Town 3-0 at Stamford Bridge.
Raheem Sterling was in fine form, scoring twice and providing the assist for new signing Nicolas Jackson to open his Chelsea account.
A goal had been coming for Jackson, who has already made 49 off-the-ball runs into the box in the Premier League this season, at least 19 more than any other player.
Sterling, meanwhile, seems to have recaptured his best form. He has attempted more take-ons (21) and made more drives into the box (four) than any other player in the top flight so far in 2023-24.
Chelsea made hard work of beating AFC Wimbledon in the EFL Cup, coming from behind to beat the League Two side 2-1 on Wednesday.
Forest, meanwhile, will be looking to bounce back from successive defeats after a 3-2 loss at Manchester United last weekend and a 1-0 reverse at the hands of Burnley in the EFL Cup. Steve Cooper’s team went 2-0 up within four minutes at Old Trafford, yet squandered their lead and lost captain Joe Worrall to a red card.
Taiwo Awoniyi is Forest’s big threat, having scored in each of his last seven Premier League appearances. The last player to score in eight successive games in the competition was Jamie Vardy between October and December 2019.
Morgan Gibbs-White has often been the key playmaker in the lineup for Forest. Gibbs-White has created 74 chances (45 more than any other teammate), provided nine assists (six more than any other teammate) and been involved in the joint-highest number of goals for the club (14) since the start of last season.
Chelsea’s defenders will have to be switched on aerially, with Forest having scored more headed goals than any other Premier League side this season, with three of their five goals so far coming via that route. Overall, five of their last nine goals in the competition have been headed, including both against Chelsea in the corresponding fixture last term.
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last nine meetings with Nottingham Forest in all competitions since a 2-0 loss in January 1997.
However, following a run of seven straight victories, Chelsea drew both Premier League meetings with Forest last season.
Forest have won just one of their last 14 away games against the Blues in all competitions (D5 L8) and are winless in nine since a 2-0 victory in January 1995.
When it comes to Premier League meetings, that win in 1995 is Forest’s only victory at Stamford Bridge in the competition. That triumph came over eight years after Forest’s previous away win against Chelsea – a 6-2 Division One success in September 1986.
Sterling netted all three of Chelsea’s goals against Forest last season, while in-form Awoniyi helped himself to a brace the last time these sides met, back in May.
That game finished 2-2 at Stamford Bridge, a key result for Forest as they aimed to drag themselves away from the bottom of the league table, while it was another hammer blow in a dismal season for Chelsea.
Chelsea went 1-0 down in the 13th minute but rallied back through Sterling’s quickfire double before Awoniyi netted an equaliser for Forest.
Chelsea had 14 shots in that game, but their accumulated xG (1.17) was less than Forest’s 1.3 from 11 attempts.
After drawing with Liverpool and losing to West Ham, Chelsea overcame Luton with ease last week, though rather made a fist of beating Wimbledon.
Against the Hatters, Chelsea had 67% possession, 19 shots and an xG of 2.09. While Sterling and Jackson got the better of Luton’s defence, Enzo Fernandez pulled the strings in midfield, playing a part in 10 open-play shot-ending sequences, a team-high ahead of Jackson (nine) and Sterling (eight).
Forest’s form at the City Ground seems set to be crucial for them once again. They won late on against Sheffield United in their only home league match this term so far, but their EFL Cup loss to Burnley did come at home.
On the road, Forest are on a torrid run. They have won just one of their 21 Premier League away games since their return to the division last season (D5 L15), and have lost both of their matches on the road this term, though they have been at Man Utd and Arsenal, while their next away trip in the league after the visit to west London comes against Manchester City.
Not that Chelsea have been spectacular at home. Prior to their win over Luton, they had not won at Stamford Bridge in the league in eight games, drawing five times and suffering three defeats from meetings with Liverpool (twice), Newcastle United, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Aston Villa, Everton and, as mentioned, Forest themselves.
Chelsea last won consecutive league matches at Stamford Bridge between August and October last season, under Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter. That record will have to improve if they are to compete for a Champions League place this season.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Even with their ropey home form, Chelsea should be a relatively safe bet, with the supercomputer rating their chances of victory at 58.2%
Forest are given a 16.9% chance of pulling off their first win at Stamford Bridge in over 28 years, while the draw is at 24.9%.