Two clubs at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to how they are run face off at Brentford Community Stadium – here’s our Brentford vs. Everton prediction and preview.
Brentford vs Everton: Quick Hits
- Brentford are big favourites ahead of kick-off, with Opta’s supercomputer giving them a 50.1% chance of claiming all three points.
- Everton have picked up just one point in their opening five Premier League games this season (D1 L4), their joint-worst start to a campaign, along with 1994-95, when they had one point under Mike Walker.
- The Toffees are winless in their last four away games against Brentford in all competitions (D2 L2).
Brentford went into the season knowing they would be without Ivan Toney until at least January, yet the Bees have so far coped without their suspended striker.
Thomas Frank’s side can consider themselves unfortunate to have lost to Newcastle United last time out, given the soft penalty they conceded at St. James’ Park. That was their first league defeat of the season, with Brentford having previously beaten Fulham 3-0 while drawing with Tottenham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
Brentford sit 11th in the league table, though their starting lineup will be without a regular fixture on Saturday, with Rico Henry set to be out for the remainder of the season after sustaining a serious knee injury in the defeat at Newcastle.
That injury could give Sean Dyche some hope that Everton can exploit a defence that might feature Aaron Hickey at left-back and be without one of Dyche’s former Burnley charges, Ben Mee, who also suffered an injury at St. James’ Park.
The Toffees have struggled in attack yet again. They were toothless in their 1-0 defeat to Arsenal at Goodison Park, and questions are being asked in some quarters of Dyche.
Everton are in turmoil off the pitch, with a proposed takeover by 777 Partners further muddying the waters. Farhad Moshiri has agreed to sell his 94.1% stake to the American investment firm, though doubts remain as to whether 777 – which also counts Hertha Berlin, Sevilla and Genoa in its multi-club model – will pass the Premier League’s owners’ and directors’ test.
A third straight relegation battle looks likely for Everton. They have picked up just one point from their first five games and sit 18th, above only Luton Town and Burnley. It is their joint-worst start to a Premier League season.
Dyche, meanwhile, is no stranger to poor starts. In the last five campaigns he’s started a Premier League season at a club, he’s picked up just one point in his opening five matches on four previous occasions – 2018-19, 2020-21 and 2021-22 with Burnley (D1 L4 each season).
Indeed, Dyche has not won a Premier League match in August or September since 2019 (Burnley 2-0 Norwich), drawing four and losing 10 since then.
Injuries have not helped Dyche’s cause this season, while Everton – who have netted just twice – have drastically underperformed their xG of 7.6. The return of Dominic Calvert-Lewin from his latest injury, plus the arrival of Beto from Udinese, should help that, but the Toffees have failed to keep clean sheets at the other end, already conceding nine times.
Bryan Mbeumo has stepped up for Brentford in Toney’s absence, scoring four goals – twice as many as Everton have managed in total. At the other end, Ethan Pinnock has been impressive, winning more duels (34) and more aerial duels (22), making more interceptions (eight), blocking the most shots (four) and completing the most passes (212) of any Bees player this season in the Premier League.
Jarrad Branthwaite has come into Everton’s defence and looked cool under pressure. From an attacking perspective, only Arnaut Danjuma and Abdoulaye Doucoure have scored for the Toffees in the league, with both of those goals coming in a 2-2 draw at Sheffield United.
Beto and Danjuma both scored in a 2-1 EFL Cup win over Doncaster Rovers back in August, with Neal Maupay teeing up the latter’s goal in that victory.
Maupay moved to Brentford – where he thrived earlier in his career – on loan two days after that game against Doncaster, though the striker will be ineligible against his parent club.
Brentford vs Everton Head-to-Head
Brentford and Everton have met 22 times in total, with the Bees edging the head-to-head record with 10 wins to Everton’s nine; the other three games have finished all square.
Everton are winless in their last four away games against Brentford (D2 L2) since a 4-2 win in the second tier in September 1952.
Having done the double over Everton in their first Premier League season, Brentford failed to win either of their meetings with the Toffees last term. After a 1-1 draw at the Brentford Community Stadium in August, Everton won 1-0 at Goodison Park in March, thanks to Dwight McNeil’s first-minute strike. Frank Lampard also guided Everton to a 4-1 win in the FA Cup in February 2022, meaning the record from the past two seasons in all competitions is shared at two wins apiece.
McNeil and Calvert-Lewin are the only Everton players to have netted previously for the Toffees against Brentford over the past few seasons who are still in their squad; Anthony Gordon, Richarlison, Andros Townsend and Yerry Mina were the other players to score against the Bees, and all have since departed.
Brentford went unbeaten in their first four matches of the season, while Everton’s sole point came in their last away game at Bramall Lane, though Jordan Pickford had to make a stunning save late on in that fixture.
Everton have won none of their last 13 Premier League visits to London (D5 L8), since a 1-0 win at West Ham United in May 2021. Interestingly, Dyche’s last London win was also in May 2021 – a 2-0 victory against Fulham with Burnley. Dyche is winless in his seven trips to the capital since then (D5 L2).
There is hope for Everton, though. Since the start of last term, Brentford have drawn more home Premier League games than any other side (10), including all three this season. The only team to draw their opening four home games in a Premier League season was Derby County in 2000-01.
Brentford only went ahead in 11 of their first 25 home Premier League matches – since then, they have held a lead in 15 of their 16 games on home soil, including each of their last 10. They have, however, failed to hold onto a lead in all three of their top-flight games on home turf this season.
Everton have only managed four away victories in the Premier League since the start of 2021-22 – they have come against Brighton and Hove Albion (twice), Southampton and Leicester City.
Not that their home form has been much better. Indeed, they have lost six of their last seven league matches at Goodison Park, with the only win in that run coming on the final day of last season against Bournemouth – a victory that kept Dyche’s team up. They have lost to Fulham and Wolves before going down to Arsenal at home this term, and were hammered 4-0 by Aston Villa in their first away game of the campaign.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Brentford vs Everton Prediction
Brentford are the big favourites, with a 50.1% likelihood of coming out on top. Everton’s chances are rated at just 22.5%, with a draw at 27.4%.
In terms of our season-long predictions, Everton are the supercomputer’s third-favourites to suffer relegation, behind Sheffield United and Luton Town. In 10,000 simulations of the Premier League season, Everton get relegated in 54.0% of them.
Brentford, meanwhile, are predicted to finish in 10th, sandwiched between Crystal Palace (11th) and Manchester United (9th). They have a 5.6% of qualifying for Europe this season.