Who will win the Premier League title in 2023-24? Which clubs will qualify for the Champions League and who will be scrapping for Premier League survival this season? We look at all the key questions with our Premier League 2023-24 season predictions via our trusty Opta supercomputer.
Premier League Season Predictions: The Quick Hits
Favourites for the Title: Manchester City to win a fourth successive Premier League.
Top Four Favourites: Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United.
Relegation Favourites: Luton Town, Sheffield United and Bournemouth.
We tasked the Opta supercomputer with simulating the 2023-24 Premier League season 10,000 times to see how it believed the campaign may pan out.
Across those results, 10 different teams won the Premier League title at least once – it won’t surprise anyone to hear that Manchester City won it more often than Brentford did, but yes, Thomas Frank’s side did win the title once in our simulations. Brentford fans can believe.
Here, we look at all the key findings from the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of the 2023-24 Premier League season.
Who Will Win the Premier League in 2023-24?
Across our 10,000 season simulations, no side finished as Premier League champions in 2023-24 as often as Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s side won the title in a frightening 90.2% of the simulations, which would mean that if this were to come true then they’d become the first club to win the English top-flight title in four successive seasons.
That total of 90.2% is the largest among any side in the Opta supercomputer predictions across the top five European leagues in 2023-24, well ahead of the next highest, Bayern Munich’s 69.3% chance of winning the Bundesliga title. Does this mean the Premier League is now the most uncompetitive of all the major European leagues?
Arsenal enjoyed their best Premier League season in 19 years, last time out. Their 84-point tally was five below Manchester City’s total of 89, but they did push the eventual champions to the end. Mikel Arteta would hope that with more experience of a title race under their belts, 2023-24 might prove to be a different story. Saying that, winning the FA Community Shield against City at the weekend might not have helped. Just one of the last 12 winners of the seasonal curtain raiser have gone on to seal the league title at the end of that campaign.
The north London club won the Premier League title in 4.1% of our pre-season simulations, which was just ahead of Liverpool’s 3.6%.
Jürgen Klopp’s side are the only team to win a Premier League title across the last six seasons not named Manchester City, but they performed below expectations in 2022-23. Liverpool finished the season in fifth place and missed out on UEFA Champions League football, with 2023-24 the first season they’ll be missing from the UCL since 2016-17. Their 67-point tally last season was their lowest since 2015-16 in the Premier League and was 22 points off Man City’s title-winning tally of 89.
Manchester United improved last season under the management of Erik ten Hag, securing a third-place finish in the Premier League and winning the League Cup – their first trophy in six years. Ten Hag’s United project is still very much a work in progress, however, and the Opta supercomputer sees a serious title challenge in 2023-24 as unlikely. Only 1.7% of our pre-season Premier League simulations saw Manchester United win the title, but the good news for United fans is that it’s higher than their total ahead of 2022-23, which stood at 0.2%.
Newcastle (0.22%), Chelsea (0.13%), Brighton (0.08%), Aston Villa (0.04%), Tottenham (0.01%) and Brentford (0.01%) all won the title at least once in the pre-season Opta supercomputer simulations, but it’s probably wise that fans of those clubs don’t expect a serious title challenge in 2023-24 as things stand.
Who Will Win Finish in the Premier League Top Four?
Based on the information provided above, looking at the leading contenders for the Premier League title, it’ll come as little surprise that those four clubs also dominate the Opta supercomputer simulations for a top-four finish in 2023-24.
Across the 10,000 simulations, Manchester City only finished outside the top four 0.1% of the time, while they never finished any lower than eighth (maybe that was in the season that Brentford won the Premier League?). Arsenal finished as runners-up (33.6%) more often than any other team in our simulations, and they also ended up within the top four and securing UCL qualification on 79.9% of occasions.
The Opta supercomputer saw Liverpool qualify for the UCL with a top-four finish in 76.8% our simulations, while Manchester United followed on 63.2%.
Chelsea had a disastrous 2022-23 campaign, but now have Mauricio Pochettino in charge. Of course, across four full seasons in charge of Tottenham Hotspur, he didn’t win a single trophy (insert some kind of Spurs gag about not winning anything, here) but could that change at Stamford Bridge? The Premier League title seems unlikely, given they won it on just 130 of the 10,000 pre-season Opta supercomputer simulations of the 2023-24 campaign, but regaining their status as a Champions League club will be vital. They managed this via a top four finish across 16% of simulations, which was the sixth highest behind Newcastle United’s 24.8%.
Roberto De Zerbi came in to replace Graham Potter last September and instantly put his stamp on Brighton. An excellent 2022-23 campaign saw them finish sixth and secure UEFA Europa League football for this season. Can their squad sustain midweek European football and the busy Premier League schedule? We’re about to find out. The Opta supercomputer’s simulations for 2023-24 saw them finish in the top four places on 12.3% of occasions and end in the top six again 35.3% of the time.
Ange Postecoglou will lead Tottenham into the new season after securing Scottish Premiership titles in both of his years at Celtic. There’s little chance of him winning a league title for a third successive season based on the Opta supercomputer’s number-crunching, but a top-four finish would be a great start. Spurs achieved this in 9.5% of simulations, but their most common finishing position was eighth (12.3%).
It’s worth noting that Everton secured a top-four finish in five of the 10,000 Opta supercomputer simulations. Sean Dyche in the Champions League? Inject it.
Who Will Be Relegated from the Premier League in 2023-24?
It won’t come as a shock to anyone, not least Luton Town fans, that the Bedfordshire club were relegated from the Premier League more often than anyone else in the Opta supercomputer’s 2023-24 pre-season simulations.
They both finished bottom of the league (28.1%) and in the relegation zone (62.3%) the most of all 20 clubs, but that’ll suit Luton just fine. Afterall, they thrive off being the underdog.
In what is their first top-flight season since 1991-92, some have tipped Luton to have such a disastrous season that they’ll challenge Derby County’s record-lowest Premier League points tally of 11 from 2007-08. Well, according to the Opta supercomputer, their average points tally across the 10,000 simulations were 34.2 – higher than both Southampton (25) and Leeds United (31) last season.
Sheffield United, who also won promotion from the Championship last season, were relegated in just under half of the simulations (49%), which was just higher than Bournemouth (48.9%).
Bournemouth stayed up in their first season back as a Premier League club, last season. Gary O’Neil steered them to a 15th-place finish and five points above the relegation zone, but he was dismissed this summer and replaced by Andoni Iraola. The Spaniard enjoyed three brilliant seasons at Rayo Vallecano, first winning promotion to La Liga in 2020-21 before successive top-12 finishes in the Spanish top flight and exceeding all expectations. He’ll have to work wonders again, based on the Opta supercomputer’s predictions.
This means that Burnley are tipped to avoid relegation by the Opta supercomputer. Vincent Kompany’s side face the toughest start possible with a game against his former side and reigning champions Man City in their first match back in the Premier League. However, they finished inside the bottom three places in 33.2% of simulations, which was less than Nottingham Forest (33.8%) and Everton (34.4%).
Last season saw all three newly promoted sides avoid relegation from the Premier League for just the fourth time (2001-02, 2011-12 and 2017-18). In pre-season, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Fulham were the most frequently relegated sides in the Opta supercomputer’s simulations. Miracles do happen.
Opta-Simulated Premier League Table
After simulating the Premier League 2023-24 season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and therefore rank teams positionally. Here’s the Opta supercomputer results from those simulations:
1st: Manchester City – 88.81 average points
2nd: Arsenal – 72.23
3rd: Liverpool – 71.47
4th: Manchester United – 68.49
5th: Newcastle United – 61.23
6th: Chelsea – 58.90
7th: Brighton & Hove Albion – 57.51
8th: Tottenham Hotspur – 56.20
9th: Aston Villa – 55.38
10th: Brentford – 53.20
11th: West Ham United – 51.45
12th: Crystal Palace – 47.40
13th: Fulham – 46.18
14th: Wolverhampton Wanderers – 43.45
15th: Burnley – 39.39
16th: Nottingham Forest – 39.34
17th: Everton – 39.14
18th: Bournemouth – 36.52
19th: Sheffield United – 36.26
20th: Luton Town – 34.19
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.