We look ahead to this Sunday fixture at St James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Can Eddie Howe end his terrible record against Jürgen Klopp?
Newcastle vs Liverpool: The Quick Hits
- Liverpool are expected to continue their great record against Newcastle, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 45.5% chance of victory on Sunday.
- Jürgen Klopp could break a Premier League record with a victory, as he would secure an 11th successive win over Eddie Howe.
- Expect goals – this fixture has averaged 3.05 per game across Premier League history.
Liverpool travel to St James’ Park on Sunday afternoon in what is arguably the most anticipated fixture across Matchday 3 in the Premier League.
Newcastle United (74) have collected three more Premier League points than Liverpool (71) since the start of last season, while they did something Liverpool were unable to do last season: secure UEFA Champions League football.
Despite this, Eddie Howe could well be nervous ahead of Sunday’s clash, and based on his history against Jürgen Klopp, he’s got every right to be.
Klopp has won more league matches against teams led by the English boss across his managerial career (11) than versus any other coach, including the last 10 Premier League meetings in a row. If Liverpool win this game, Klopp will set a new Premier League record, as no manager has ever beaten another in 11 successive games within the competition.
Klopp is set to be without both Thiago Alcantara and Curtis Jones through injury on Sunday but will be hopeful that Trent Alexander-Arnold can recover from a knock that saw him substituted last weekend versus Bournemouth.
Newcastle suffered a blow in their defeat to Man City last weekend, when Brazilian midfielder Joelinton was forced off before the hour-mark with injury – he’s likely to face a late fitness test in order to be available for selection in this game. The trio of Emil Krafth, Joe Willock and Javier Manquillo are all sidelined with injury and will be missing for Eddie Howe’s side.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Historically, this fixture has been a miserable one for Newcastle United. Only against Arsenal (34) have they lost more Premier League games than they have versus Liverpool (33), while their 113 goals conceded versus the Reds is their joint most alongside their record versus Manchester United.
Newcastle are winless in their last 13 Premier League games against Liverpool (D4 L9) since a 2-0 home win in December 2015 – the last four of these games have ended in a defeat.
Liverpool have won four of their last five league trips to St James’ Park including the last two in a row. They’ve never won three consecutive away league games against Newcastle in their history.
The last meeting between these clubs was back in February, when goals from Darwin Núñez and Cody Gakpo saw Liverpool race into a 2-0 lead within 17 minutes, before Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope was sent off in the 22nd minute for handling the ball outside his box.
Earlier in 2022-23, Liverpool came from behind to defeat Newcastle 2-1 at Anfield. Alexander Isak fired past Alisson on his debut for the Magpies, before goals from Roberto Firmino and Fabio Carvalho turned the game around. Carvalho’s goal came in the 98th minute (97:10) and was both Liverpool latest goal scored, and Newcastle’s latest goal conceded in the Premier League last season.
Overall, in Premier League history the Newcastle versus Liverpool fixture has produced 171 goals across 56 meetings. This average of 3.05 goals per game is below only Newcastle vs. Tottenham (3.16) of the 41 Premier League fixtures to have been played at least 50 times.
Liverpool have started the 2023-24 Premier League campaign with a 1-1 draw away at Chelsea and a 3-1 home win versus Bournemouth – match that they had to play over half an hour with 10 men, following the red card for Alexis Mac Allister. Mohamed Salah scored in that win, netting the rebound from his saved penalty to register his 200th goal involvement in the competition (140 goals, 60 assists).
Luis Díaz has scored in both of Liverpool’s opening two Premier League games this season. The only three players to score in the Reds’ first three Premier League matches of a season are Robbie Fowler in 1994-95, Daniel Sturridge in 2013-14 and Sadio Mané in 2017-18.
Jürgen Klopp’s side are currently on the longest unbeaten run of all top-flight clubs in England, not losing any of their last 13 matches in the competition since losing 4-1 to Manchester City in April (W8 D5). Across this run, they’ve won nine points from losing positions after falling behind in five games across this period – three of those points came in last weekend’s home win over Bournemouth.
If they go behind in this game, however, it might be a tougher task to secure a comeback. Newcastle haven’t lost any of their last 22 Premier League matches that they have taken the lead in (W19 D3), although they did lose a league game in such circumstances was against Liverpool in the 2-1 loss at Anfield in August 2022.
Eddie Howe’s side enjoyed a brilliant opening matchday win over Aston Villa, with Sandro Tonali, Alexander Isak (2), Callum Wilson and Harvey Barnes netting in the 5-1 victory. None of those players were able to score on Matchday 2, however, as they suffered a 1-0 away defeat at reigning champions Man City.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction
Liverpool are expected to continue their great Premier League record versus Newcastle, with the Opta supercomputer believing the most likely result in this game is a Liverpool away win (45.5%). Newcastle won the fixture in just over a quarter of the pre-match simulations (26.7%) while a draw occurred 27.8% of the time.
Overall, in 2023-24, the Opta supercomputer is predicting that both sides have a good chance of finishing in the top four of the league standings come the end of the season. Across 10,000 simulations before this game, Liverpool ended in the top four of the league table 75.9% of the time, which was behind only Man City (99.9%) and Arsenal (85.2%). Newcastle, in comparison, secured a top-four EPL finish in 30.2% of simulations – just behind Man Utd (49.3%).