Manchester City and Sevilla will tussle for the first European trophy of the season at the Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus on Wednesday. Look ahead to the contest with our UEFA Super Cup preview and prediction.

Manchester City vs Sevilla: Quick Hits

  • UEFA Champions League winners Man City are huge favourites to get their fourth piece of silverware this year, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 68.8% probability of success.
  • Erling Haaland has scored twice in each of his three previous meetings with Sevilla.
  • Sevilla, who won the UEFA Europa League in May, have lost five Super Cup games in a row ahead of Wednesday’s clash.

Match Preview

Another week, another opportunity for Manchester City to win silverware. Of course, last season’s treble winners have already missed out on the Community Shield, losing on penalties to Arsenal the weekend before last, but it’s difficult to see Sevilla posing the same kind of threat.

City swept Sevilla aside with ease en route to Champions League glory last term, winning 4-0 away from home and 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium in the group stage. Across their four previous meetings, City have won four times by an aggregate score of 12-3.

In fact, Sevilla have lost four of their last seven meetings with English clubs in European competition (W2 D1). Sure, they beat Manchester United 3-0 in their most recent such game earlier this year, but those four losses were as many as they’d suffered in their first 18 clashes with teams from England.

It bears remembering that Sevilla did qualify for this game by virtue of winning a trophy, however, as they defeated Roma in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw in May to claim a record-extending seventh UEFA Cup/Europa League crown.

But their record in the Super Cup is terrible.

They beat Barcelona in their very first appearance in the one-off game back in 2006, but they’ve since lost five on the bounce (2007, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2020) and nine of the past 10 editions of the Super Cup have been won by the winners of the previous campaign’s Champions League.

Victory on Wednesday would give Pep Guardiola his fourth success in the competition as a coach, a figure only Carlo Ancelotti (also four) has reached, and a fourth trophy of the year; they could go on to add a fifth with the FIFA Club World Cup in December.

Recent Form

City began their Premier League title defence last Friday with a comfortable 3-0 win over Burnley. Erling Haaland was unsurprisingly among the goals as he scored twice, which coincidentally is the same amount he’s netted in each of his previous three games against Sevilla for City and Borussia Dortmund.

Erling Haaland vs Sevilla xG

Even if he doesn’t continue that streak, Guardiola’s side will be confident of victory given they’ve not lost any of their past 13 matches in European competition since being beaten by Real Madrid in the semi-finals of the 2021-22 Champions League semi-finals.

But Sevilla have upset the odds already this year, with their Europa League triumph coming amid real turmoil. They saw off PSV, Fenerbahce, United and Juventus before handing José Mourinho a rare final defeat, with José Luis Mendilibar practically working miracles after his March appointment following the sacking of Jorge Sampaoli, who’d only been in charge since October.

Sevilla were genuine relegation candidates at the time of Mendilibar’s hiring, but he guided them to safety and an unlikely Europa League crown. Nevertheless, it’s hard to say the outlook at the club is particularly bright.

They’ve had to be relatively frugal in the transfer market, with only three signings made so far, and they’re struggling to offload the myriad of aging players on bloated contracts; the 2-1 opening-day defeat at home to Valencia in La Liga on Friday did little to improve the mood.

Sevilla v Valencia xG race

Manchester City vs Sevilla Prediction

Manchester City vs Sevilla Opta prediction

A City win is the most likely outcome on Wednesday, and overwhelmingly so. The Opta supercomputer believes there’s a 68.8% chance they’ll seal the trophy in 90 minutes.

Sevilla have only a 12.4% likelihood of beating City in regulation time, highlighting how daunting a task this promises to be for the Andalusian club.

The draw is rated at 18.8%, but then Sevilla would have to contend with another 30 minutes against the best team in the world – at least if it goes to penalties, they may feel a shootout levels the playing field somewhat.

Either way, anything other than a City victory will come as a massive surprise.

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