Aston Villa have had a goal-laden start to the season and are looking to build some momentum when they visit newly promoted Burnley on Sunday. We look ahead to the game at Turf Moor with our Burnley vs Aston Villa prediction and preview.
Burnley vs Aston Villa: The Quick Hits
- The Opta Supercomputer expects Aston Villa to build on last week’s rout of Everton, giving the visitors a 38.7% chance of victory at Turf Moor.
- Burnley have lost two of their last three home league games after going unbeaten through their previous 21. They are looking to avoid suffering back-to-back home league defeats for the first time since May 2022.
- There has been at least one draw between Burnley and Villa in each of the last six league seasons in which they have met, with seven of their last 12 meetings finishing level.
Match Preview
Goals have been rife when Aston Villa have taken to the field lately, and neutrals will be hoping for more of the same when they visit Burnley on Matchday 3 of the Premier League season.
Unai Emery’s men were thrashed 5-1 at Newcastle United on Matchday 1, but they bounced back in comprehensive fashion with a 4-0 rout of Everton last Sunday. They are just the second team in English top-flight history to lose their first game of a season by four or more goals before winning their second by such a margin.
Opponents Burnley are the only other club to do so – they beat Leicester City 4-0 in their second fixture of the 1925-26 campaign after kicking off with a 10-0 defeat against Villa. It’s fair to say the travelling fans would be happy with a repeat on Sunday.
As if their league exploits weren’t enough, Villa crushed Hibernian 5-0 in the first leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League play-off tie on Wednesday, with Ollie Watkins helping himself to a hat-trick. The England striker has scored on both of his previous Premier League trips to Burnley, including in a 3-1 victory when Villa last visited in May 2022.
A guarantee of goals has not been the only benefit of watching Aston Villa recently. The Premier League’s new anti-timewasting directive is taking some getting used to, but it has resulted in Villa fans getting more bang for their buck. The two longest matches in the Premier League this term have both featured Villa, who saw the clock strike 107:39 at Newcastle and 108:03 against Everton.
A serious knee injury to Tyrone Mings was at least partly to blame for their first game running long, and he is joined by Emiliano Buendía, Jacob Ramsey and Philippe Coutinho on a notable list of absentees.
Burnley, meanwhile, should be raring to go on Sunday after 15 days without a game. Vincent Kompany’s side were beaten 3-0 by Manchester City on 11 August and are still awaiting their first points of the season, having seen last week’s scheduled trip to Luton Town postponed.
The Clarets are looking to avoid back-to-back home losses, having lost two of their last three at Turf Moor following a 21-match unbeaten run at home (15 wins, six draws). During his illustrious playing career, Kompany only tasted defeat on consecutive home Premier League outings once, in November and December 2008.
Kompany has received plaudits for revolutionising Burnley’s style of play, and there is a fresh-faced look about their squad. Their starting lineup against City had an average age of just 23 years and 206 days, the youngest of any Premier League team this term, while they neglected to use a single player aged 30 or above for the first time in the competition.
The hosts will be without winger Anass Zaroury after he was sent off in the opening game, but new signings Hannes Delcroix and Aaron Ramsey – the latter of whom has joined from Villa for £12 million – could be involved.
Burnley vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Turf Moor was not traditionally a happy hunting ground for Aston Villa, but that is starting to change. They have managed two victories in their last three league trips to Burnley (losing once), as many as they recorded in their previous 29 (six draws, 21 defeats).
Nobody should be surprised if the spoils are shared on Sunday, however. Burnley and Aston Villa have managed at least one draw in each of the last six league seasons in which they have met, with seven of their last 12 head-to-head clashes finishing all square. Villa have managed three wins during that run, with Burnley triumphing twice.
Their last two head-to-head Premier League meetings came within the space of 12 days in May 2022. Aston Villa won 3-1 at Turf Moor on 7 May, with Watkins, Buendía and former Claret Danny Ings scoring.
Buendía was also on the scoresheet when the sides faced off at Villa Park on 19 May 2022, with Burnley being pegged back in a 1-1 draw. They were relegated to the Championship just three days later.
Recent Form
A quick start can make all the difference to those expected to struggle, but Burnley’s last two top-flight seasons, 2020-21 and 2021-22, saw them begin with two losses.
The Clarets could become just the third team to start three consecutive top-flight campaigns with successive defeats, after Queens Park Rangers (1976-77, 1977-78 and 1978-79) and Bournemouth (2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18).
Aston Villa, meanwhile, are looking to take their home form on the road. Last week’s thrashing of Everton was their eighth successive Premier League win at Villa Park, but they have only taken two points from their last five away league games, last winning on the road at Leicester in April.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction
It’s a close call, but the Opta Supercomputer is siding with the visitors ahead of Sunday’s game, giving Villa a 38.7% chance of picking up back-to-back Premier League wins.
Burnley are assigned a 31.8% chance of claiming their first victory since being promoted, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 29.5%.
Emery’s team are expected to challenge for a European spot again this term, with the supercomputer rating their two most likely finishing positions as eighth (12.6%) and ninth (12.3%).
Burnley, meanwhile, are assigned a 31.0% chance of relegation. Only Sheffield United (62.0%), Luton (60.5%), Bournemouth (45.5%) and Everton (44.1%) are rated as more likely to suffer the drop.
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