Having lost their first games, these sides will be looking to pick up their first points. We look ahead to the game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Everton prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs Everton: The Quick Hits
- Aston Villa are the favourites for this match, with the Opta supercomputer giving Unai Emery’s side a 45.9% likelihood of claiming all three points.
- The hosts will be without Tyrone Mings after the defender suffered a serious knee injury in the 5-1 loss at Newcastle United.
- Everton failed to score on Matchday 1 versus Fulham despite having chances totalling 2.73 expected goals.
Aston Villa prop up the table after their hammering at the hands of Newcastle United on Matchday 1. Unai Emery’s side have been tipped by many as potential dark horses for a top-four place this season, yet they were taught a harsh lesson at St. James’ Park in a 5-1 defeat. It was Villa’s heaviest defeat in their first game since 1985-86 when they lost 4-0 to Manchester United. They last lost their opening two league games of the season in 2019-20.
The loss of Tyrone Mings to a serious knee injury compounded Villa’s misery, though with Pau Torres having arrived from Villarreal, Villa do seem relatively stocked in central defence. Emiliano Buendia’s injury has forced them into the market for an attacker, with Nicolo Zaniolo in line for a potential debut after the club finalised his loan deal from Galatasaray on Friday.
Everton, meanwhile, seem set for another season of strife and struggle, but as far as a 1-0 home defeat to Fulham can be positive (can it?), then the Toffees can come out of last Saturday’s match knowing they were by far the better side.
Everton’s total of 2.73 expected goals was their second-highest expected goals total in a Premier League game under Sean Dyche. It was the highest expected goals tally by a team who failed to score in a Premier League match since Newcastle against Crystal Palace in September 2022 (2.83).
While Abdoluaye Doucoure and Nathan Patterson also squandered excellent opportunities, striker Neal Maupay missed two big chances against Fulham, and has now failed to score in his last 26 Premier League appearances, despite attempting 29 shots. His xG of 1.35 was more than seven teams managed in their opening Premier League matches, and Everton’s failure to sign a new, starting-ready striker in time for the start of the season was only made more frustrating for their fans by Dominic Calvert-Lewin not being available, despite having made two appearances in pre-season.
Sean Dyche explained Calvert-Lewin had not completed his rehab programme, but the striker has subsequently played in a behind-closed-doors friendly and could be back in the fold on Sunday.
Everton saw off late competition from Villa for Jack Harrison, though the on-loan winger will not be fit to feature for the the club until September. They still, though, have not brought in the goalscorer they will need to stray clear of relegation.
Ashley Young is set to face his former side in this fixture. On his competitive club debut last weekend, he became Everton’s oldest outfield Premier League player (38 years, 34 days) since Richard Gough in 2001, who was 39.
Aston Villa vs Everton Head-to-Head
Everton have lost their last four Premier League games against Aston Villa – they have never lost five in a row against the Villans in their league history.
In fact, Villa are unbeaten in their eight Premier League meetings with Everton since their return to the division in 2019 (W6 D2), having lost five of their previous six against the Toffees before this.
The corresponding fixture last season was also played on matchday two, with Danny Ings and Buendia scoring for Villa in a 2-1 victory. The sides met again in February, with Buendia scoring again following a penalty from England international Ollie Watkins.
Aston Villa ended last season on a seven-game home winning run in the Premier League. They last had a longer home winning run in the league between September 1989 and February 1990 (nine).
Emery’s team faced 13 shots on target in their loss to Newcastle in their opening match – the most they have conceded in a Premier League game since December 2012 versus Chelsea (15). In his 563 matches managing across Europe’s top-five leagues, Emery has only seen one of his teams face more in a game once, with Barcelona having 15 shots on target against his Valencia team in February 2012.
Moussa Diaby scored Aston Villa’s goal in their 5-1 defeat to Newcastle in their opening Premier League game this season. Only four players have scored in their first two Premier League appearances for Villa.
Of the 17 ever-present teams in the Premier League since the start of 2022-23, Everton have picked up the fewest points in the competition (36), just below Nottingham Forest (38) and Bournemouth (40).
They have won just two of their last 21 EPL away games (D10 L9), but their form on the road has picked up in recent times, having lost just one of their seven away matches in the competition and being unbeaten in four – this includes a superb 5-1 win at Brighton in May.
Aston Villa vs Everton Opta Power Rankings
The Opta’s Power Rankings are a global team-ranking system that assigns an ability score over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of the game this weekend, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction
Given their recent form against Everton, it’s no surprise to see Aston Villa are the favourites, with a 45.9% likelihood of winning on Sunday according to the Opta supercomputer.
The supercomputer hands Everton a 25.6% chance, while the draw is ranked at 28.5%.