We look ahead to the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup final at the SoFi Stadium in California, with our Mexico vs Panama preview and prediction.

Mexico vs Panama Stats: Quick Hits

  • Mexico are the favourites to win the 2023 Gold Cup with a 58% chance of victory in Sunday’s final according to the Opta Supercomputer.
  • Panama are appearing in just their third Concacaf Gold Cup final, losing both of the previous two.
  • Record Gold Cup champions Mexico have the tightest defence at this tournament, with the fewest goals (two) and shots conceded (30) so far.

Match Preview

Mexico and Panama will play in the Concacaf Gold Cup final this Sunday, with neither side having faced each other in the final of this tournament before.

This is Mexico’s 15th Gold Cup final appearance – a competition record, while they already hold the accolade of having the most Gold Cup titles (11) ahead of the United States (seven). Panama have much less final experience with just two previous appearances in the final of the Gold Cup. Both ended in defeat, losing to the U.S. in 2005 and 2013.

Mexico are appearing in their third successive Gold Cup final after winning in 2019 (vs. USA) and losing in 2021 (also vs. USA) – this equals their record of appearing in three successive finals of the competition between 2007 and 2011 as well as three in a row between 1993 and 1998.

Having already qualified for the knockout stages, Mexico suffered a 1-0 defeat to Qatar in their final group-stage match in Group B. They started the tournament with impressive wins over Honduras (4-0) and Haiti (3-1).

In the quarter-finals, they knocked out Costa Rica following a 2-0 win before their excellent 3-0 victory over Jamaica in the semi-finals on Wednesday night in Paradise, Nevada.

Panama advanced through the group stages by winning Group C with seven points from nine available. They won their opening two games against Costa Rica (2-1) and Martinique (2-1) to qualify for the quarter-final before a 2-2 draw with El Salvador in the final game.

In the quarter-final, they easily progressed past Qatar following a 4-0 win in which Ismael Díaz scored a second-half hat-trick in the space of just nine minutes and three seconds – the fastest hat-trick in the history of the Gold Cup. The semi-final saw them knock out the United States with a penalty shootout victory following a 1-1 draw after extra time.

Mexico Defence at Gold Cup 2023

Even after progressing through the knockout stages, Mexico come into the final with the tournament’s best defensive record. They have conceded just two goals, allowed opponents just 30 shots and their expected goals against total of 1.5 is the lowest at the 2023 Gold Cup.

This final will see two of the most creative players at the tournament face off, with Mexico’s Luis Chávez creating a tournament-high tally of 15 chances for teammates and Panama’s Adalberto Carrasquilla having the joint most chances created from open play (10).

Mexico vs Panama Head-to-Head

This will be the sixth meeting between Mexico and Panama at the Concacaf Gold Cup, but the first time that they have played each other in the final of the competition. The last two meetings came at the semi-final stage, with Panama causing a shock in 2013 to progress to the final after a 2-1 victory, before Mexico got their revenge in 2015 following a 2-1 victory of their own after extra time. The Mexicans only managed to reach extra time in this match thanks to an Andrés Guardado penalty 10 minutes into second-half stoppage time, before the Guardado scored the winner in extra time, again from the penalty spot.

Outside of the Gold Cup, these two nations only met last month in a Concacaf Nations League match. Jess Gallardo’s fourth-minute strike was the only goal of the game in the third-place play-off match, condemning Panama to defeat in a match that saw little action in front of either goal.

Panama 0-1 Mexico Concacaf

Mexico vs Panama Prediction

Mexico vs Panama Prediction Gold Cup Final

The Opta Supercomputer is pointing towards a Mexico victory in the 2023 Gold Cup final on Sunday, with a 58.0% chance of defeating Panama inside 90 minutes and lifting their 12th competition title.

Panama have just a 14.4% chance of defeating Mexico without needing extra time or penalties, but will be buoyed by the fact that they were underdogs against the United States in the semi-final too, before knocking them out after a penalty shootout.

The chance of a draw and therefore extra time and potentially a penalty shootout in this final is being rated at 27.6%.

Mexico vs Panama Squads

Mexico: José Antonio Rodríguez, Julián Araujo, César Montes, Edson Álvarez, Johan Vásquez, Gerardo Arteaga, Luis Romo, Carlos Rodríguez, Ozziel Herrera, Roberto Alvarado, Santiago Giménez, Luis Malagón, Guillermo Ochoa, Érick Sánchez, Uriel Antuna, Diego Lainez, Orbelín Pineda, Luis Chávez, Jorge Sánchez, Henry Martín, Israel Reyes, Víctor Guzmán, Jesús Gallardo.

Panama: Luis Mejía, Harold Cummings, Fidel Escobar, Roderick Miller, Cristian Martínez, Jovani Welch, Adalberto Carrasquilla, Azarías Londoño, Yoel Bárcenas, Ismael Díaz, César Samudio, Freddy Góndola, Eduardo Anderson, Eric Davis, Andrés Andrade, José Fajardo, Cecilio Waterman, Alberto Quintero, Aníbal Godoy, César Yanis, Orlando Mosquera, Omar Valencia, Iván Anderson. César Blackman and Michael Amir Murillo withdrawn with injury.

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