We look ahead to the 2023 UEFA Europa League final at Budapest’s Puskás Aréna with our Sevilla vs Roma prediction and stats preview.
Sevilla vs Roma: Quick Stats
- Sevilla are narrow favourites to defeat Roma in the 2022-23 Europa League final, with a 35.9% chance of winning inside 90 minutes.
- Sevilla have won the UEFA Cup/Europa League six times – double the tally of any other side.
- If Roma win this match, José Mourinho will become the most decorated manager in the history of major European competition with six major European titles.
The UEFA Europa League is Sevilla’s competition. The Spanish side have won the UEFA Cup/Europa League on six occasions (2006, 2007, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2020), which is double the tally of any other club. Every time they’ve reached the final of the competition, they’ve won it. The opponents standing in the way this time are Serie A giants Roma.
Roma will contest the final of the UEFA Cup/Europa League for the second time, losing in the showpiece in 1991 against Internazionale. This is their fifth major European final overall, after 1961 (Fairs Cup), 1984 (European Cup), 1991 (UEFA Cup) and 2022 (Europa Conference League).
Having won the UECL last season, Roma could win a major European title in consecutive seasons, which has been achieved by an Italian club on four previous occasions – Internazionale in 1964 and 1965, Milan in 1968 and 1969, Juventus in 1984 and 1985, and Milan again in 1989 and 1990.
Of course, Roma will be led on Wednesday night by the irrepressible José Mourinho. The Portuguese manager has won five major European titles to date: the 2003 UEFA Cup, the UEFA Champions League in 2004 and 2010, the UEFA Europa League in 2017 and last season’s UEFA Europa Conference League. Should Roma lift the trophy this season, Mourinho will be the most decorated manager in the history of major European competition, going clear of Giovanni Trapattoni (five).
But Sevilla have pedigree of their own. Should they win their seventh UEFA Cup/Europa League title here, only five sides will have more major European trophies – Real Madrid (16), Barcelona (12), Milan (nine), Liverpool (nine) and Bayern Munich (eight).
Unlike the incredible experience of Mourinho, this will be Sevilla boss José Luis Mendilibar’s first major European final. The good news for him is that the UEFA Cup/Europa League has been won by a Spanish manager on 12 previous occasions, more than the managers from any other nation, with six of the last 10 finals being won by Spanish managers.
This final will be held at Budapest’s Puskás Aréna. It’ll be just the fourth time that Hungary have hosted a major European final and the first since 1985. This game will follow Leeds United versus Ferencvárosi TC in the Fairs Cup in 1968 (second leg), Newcastle United against Újpest in the Fairs Cup in 1969 (second leg), and Real Madrid versus Fehérvár in the UEFA Cup in 1985.
History bodes well for Sevilla. This game will be the 14th instance of a Spanish side facing an Italian side in the final of a major European competition, with the Spanish side being crowned champions on nine of the previous 13 occasions, including each of the last three.
One player hoping that continues is veteran Sevilla winger Jesús Navas. He’ll be 37 years and 191 days old on the day of this match and could therefore be the oldest outfielder to start the final of the UEFA Cup/Europa League since David Weir for Rangers vs Zenit in 2008 (38 years, four days). Navas has won three UEFA Cup/Europa League titles with Sevilla coming into this final, including success in 2006 against Middlesbrough when he was 20 years and 170 days old.
Sevilla 2-0 Roma: 6 August 2020 (UEFA Europa League)
The only previous competitive meeting between Sevilla and Roma took place in the last 16 of the 2019-20 UEFA Europa League. With the season being interrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, this game was played as a one-legged game in a neutral venue (MSV-Arena in Duisburg).
Sevilla won the game thanks to first-half goals via Sergio Reguilón and Youssef En-Nesyri to set up a tie with Premier League side Wolves in the quarter-finals.
It was a dominant performance from the Spanish side, with Roma’s woes compounded late into injury time when Gianluca Mancini was shown a red card after a VAR review deemed he’d elbowed Luuk de Jong.
Sevilla eventually went on to win the UEFA Europa League that season with a 3-2 win over Inter Milan in the final.
Roma come into this final in poor form. A 2-1 defeat away at Fiorentina in Serie A on Saturday means that they are on a four-game winless streak in all competitions (D3 L1) and have won just one of their nine competitive matches (W1 D5 L3) – that win did come against Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League semis, however.
Roma’s recent poor form means that they have no chance of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League via a top-four finish in Serie A this season. Those places are already confirmed to be taken by Napoli, Lazio, Inter Milan and AC Milan. They could finish fifth but would need to win their final game against Spezia and hope Atalanta drop points against Monza. As a result, winning this UEL final is Roma’s only hope of playing UCL football in 2023-24.
It’s a similar story for Sevilla, who can only finish as high as seventh in La Liga this season following a relatively poor league campaign. If they fail to win this final, there is a strong chance that they will be without European football next season for the first time since 2012-13.
Sevilla led Real Madrid after three minutes thanks to a Rafa Mir goal this weekend, but eventually lost 2-1 at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán Stadium in La Liga. This was their first competitive defeat since 1 May – they’d enjoyed two wins and four draws in their six matches before this loss.
Sevilla have lost just two of their 15 competitive matches since 1 April – a 2-0 loss at home to Girona on 1 May and that weekend defeat to Real Madrid. Their other 13 games across this period have seen them win eight times and draw the other five.
Roma have made it to the final of the 2022-23 UEL from the group stage of the competition. They finished second in Group C behind La Liga club Real Betis and ahead of Ludogorets Razgrad and HJK of Finland.
In the knockout stages, they defeated RB Salzburg in the knockout round play-off, before a last 16 win over Real Sociedad and a quarter-final victory over Eredivisie champions Feyenoord. Their 1-0 semi-final victory across two legs over Bayer Leverkusen sent them to the final in Hungary.
Sevilla came into the Europa League following a group-stage exit in the Champions League. They finished third in their UCL group behind Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund, but crucially ahead of Copenhagen to make it into the Europa League knockout play-off, where they defeated PSV Eindhoven across their two-legged tie. Wins over Fenerbahçe and Manchester United were followed by an extra-time victory over Juventus in the semis.
Sevilla: Youssef En-Nesyri
Youssef En-Nesyri is the biggest goal threat in the Sevilla squad, with his 18 goals across all competitions this season more than double any other player in their side (Rafa Mir and Erik Lamela both on eight).
The Moroccan international has ended the season well. He won the La Liga player of the month award in April and should be fresh for this final after he was rested in the weekend defeat to Real Madrid as an unused substitute.
After a disappointing 2021-22 campaign in which he scored just five goals in 29 games, En-Nesyri’s 18-goal tally this season is his second-best return in a campaign after his 24 goals in 2020-21 at the Spanish side.
He scored in the only previous meeting between Sevilla and Roma, back in August 2020. That season also saw En-Nesyri win his only major honour as a player – the 2019-20 UEFA Europa League. He’ll be hoping his goals help add another medal to his collection.
Roma: Lorenzo Pellegrini
Lorenzo Pellegrini is undoubtedly Roma’s chief creator and will be the man that could potentially cause Sevilla the most problems in this Europa League match.
He leads the Roma rankings across all competitions this season for assists (nine), chances created (105) and open-play chances created (42), while his expected assists total (9.4) is also the most of any Roma player in 2022-23.
Across all players in the top five European leagues in 2022-23, Pellegrini is one of just four men to have 100+ chances created and attempted 100+ shots in all competitions, alongside Lionel Messi, Bruno Fernandes and Vinícius Júnior – not bad company to keep.
On the way to the final, Pellegrini’s been involved in the most Europa League goals across 2022-23 (eight – four goals, four assists). Roma will be hoping for more of the same on Wednesday night.
Sevilla vs Roma Prediction
Sevilla are predicted to win the 2022-23 UEFA Europa League by the Opta supercomputer before kick-off. The La Liga side are being given a 35.9% chance of victory in the final, but this promises to be an incredibly tight final to call, with Roma’s chance of victory only 2.2% lower at 33.7%.
The chance of a draw at 90 minutes stands at 30.4%, so extra time and a penalty shootout aren’t out of the question.
Sevilla vs Roma UEL Squads
Sevilla: Marko Dmitrović,Yassine Bounou, Alberto Flores *, Matías Árbol *, Gonzalo Montiel, Alex Telles, Karim Rekik, Tanguy Nianzou, Marcos Acuña (suspended), Marcão, Pablo Pérez *, Valentino Scotta *, Diego Hormigo *, Loïc Badé, Nemanja Gudelj, Joan Jordán, Ivan Rakitić, Erik Lamela, Fernando, Óliver Torres, Carlos Álvarez *, Manuel Bueno *, Suso, Rafa Mir, Youssef En-Nesyri, Jesús Navas, Alejandro Gómez, Bryan Gil *, Lucas Ocampos.
AS Roma: Rui Patrício, Pietro Boer *, Gabriele Baldi *, Mile Svilar, Rick Karsdorp, Roger Ibañez, Chris Smalling, Diego Llorente, Zeki Çelik, Gianluca Mancini, Marash Kumbulla, Leonardo Spinazzola, Filippo Missori *, Matteo Falasca *, Francesco Chesti *, Bryan Cristante, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Nemanja Matić, Mohamed Camara, Georginio Wijnaldum, Edoardo Bove *, Ebrima Darboe *, Nicola Zalewski *, Cristian Volpato *, Benjamin Tahirovic *, Giacomo Faticanti *, Tammy Abraham, Andrea Belotti, Paulo Dybala, Claudio Cassano *, Luigi Cherubini *, Cristian Padula *, Stephan El Shaarawy.
* Player list B