Following a dramatic ending to their UEFA Europa League semi-final first leg, here’s our Sevilla vs Juventus prediction and preview ahead of the return fixture.
Sevilla vs Juventus: Quick Hits
- Sevilla are the favourites to win on the night inside 90 minutes according to the Opta supercomputer (41.5% chance of a home win).
- Juventus are unbeaten in five games in all competitions.
- Sevilla have won all three of their previous semi-final legs played at home in the UEFA Europa League.
There is something about Sevilla and the UEFA Europa League. The club could be languishing in the bottom tier of Spanish football and only have six players on their books, but you’d still give them a shot of success should they also somehow be competing in the Europa League.
It has not been a great season for Sevilla, spending much of it in the bottom half of La Liga, but the appointment of José Luis Mendilibar as head coach has helped them to turn things around, now sitting in 10th spot and within a point of seventh, which would secure a place in the UEFA Europa Conference League next season. They will have their sights set higher than that though and will of course qualify for the UEFA Champions League should they go on to win their seventh Europa League.
They almost gave themselves a lead to bring back home after their semi-final first leg last week before Federico Gatti’s very late header salvaged a draw for Juventus. It bodes well for Sevilla that they have never lost a two-legged tie in the Europa League knockout stages when playing at home in the second leg, having advanced on all nine occasions, and have won 24 of their last 27 games in the competition at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán (D2 L1).
By contrast, Juventus have only won two of their last 17 away games against Spanish sides in the knockout stages of a major European competition (D3 L12), only keeping one clean sheet in that time, which was a 0-0 draw at Barcelona in the 2016-17 Champions League.
It may be the secondary competition, but Juventus will still be eager to qualify for their first European final since the 2016-17 Champions League showpiece, which was also under Massimiliano Allegri in his previous spell. Allegri could become just the fifth manager to reach the finals of both the UEFA Champions League and Europa League after Diego Simeone, Rafael Benítez, Jürgen Klopp and José Mourinho.
For Sevilla, it would simply be business as usual in this competition, aiming to reach their fifth UEFA Europa League final. Their current total of four final appearances is already the most of any side in the competition, while it bodes well that they have won all three of their semi-final legs played at home in the Europa League (2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16), scoring eight goals and conceding just once.
Juventus 1-1 Sevilla: 11 May 2023 (UEFA Europa League)
For a long time at the Allianz Stadium, it looked like Sevilla were going to do a job on their hosts, though it was also very much a game of two halves, in terms of their attacking potency at least.
In the first half of the first leg, Sevilla had 12 shots, five on target and recorded an expected goals (xG) total of 1.67, which included Youssef En-Nesyri sweeping home a Lucas Ocampos cross to give them the lead.
However, in the second half they had just one shot (off target) for an xG of 0.03 and were ultimately made to pay as a corner routine in the 97th minute led to three Juventus headers, with Paul Pogba finally nodding the ball across to Gatti to equalise from close range.
Juventus: Wojciech Szczęsny, Danilo, Leonardo Bonucci (c), Alex Sandro, Juan Cuadrado, Filip Kostic, Fabio Miretti, Adrien Rabiot, Manuel Locatelli, Ángel Di María, Dusan Vlahovic. Used subs: Samuel Iling-Junior, Federico Chiesa, Federico Gatti, Arkadiusz Milik, Paul Pogba.
Sevilla: Yassine Bounou, Jesús Navas (c), Loïc Badé, Nemanja Gudelj, Marcos Acuña, Fernando, Ivan Rakitic, Lucas Ocampos, Óliver Torres, Bryan Gil, Youssef En-Nesyri. Used subs: Gonzalo Montiel, Alejandro Gómez, Erik Lamela.
Sevilla have only won four of their last 10 games in the UEFA Europa League (D2 L4), since winning five in a row in the competition between August 2020 and February 2022. That hasn’t stopped them from reaching the semi-finals again though, and they have won their last five home games in the competition, scoring 12 times and conceding just one.
Mendilibar’s men have lost just one of their last 11 games in all competitions and sailed to a routine 3-0 win at Real Valladolid on Sunday.
After a run of losing four out of six games, Juventus are unbeaten in five (W3 D2), and defeated Cremonese 2-0 at the weekend to further cement their place in Italy’s top four, assuming there are no further developments on their successfully overturned points deduction.
The Bianconeri are unbeaten in their last eight Europa League matches (W4 D4) and have not lost any of their three away games in the competition this season (W2 D1), having lost all three of their away games in the Champions League earlier in the campaign.
Sevilla: Youssef En-Nesyri
Since returning from the World Cup, Sevilla striker Youssef En-Nesyri has scored nine times in 13 home games across all competitions, averaging a goal every 106 minutes. Three of those goals have come in three UEFA Europa League games at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, and the Moroccan will be hopeful of adding to that tally.
En-Nesyri has just eight goals in 29 appearances in LaLiga (16 starts) but has thrived in cup competitions, hitting four in four Copa del Rey games, and four in seven in the Europa League.
Our new radar graphic shows that the 25-year-old is in the 79th percentile for shots and touches in the opposition box and the 84th percentile for aerials won, so Allegri’s men will need to keep a close eye on him again, even if he isn’t particularly involved in open play.
Juventus: Ángel Di María
Ángel Di María has had a good 12 months. After joining Juventus on a free transfer last year, he has thrived in Italy as well as winning the World Cup with Argentina in December.
He leads all Juventus players in European competition this season for goals (four), assists (three), goal involvements (seven), chances created (21) and dribbles completed (23).
Di María also leads all of his team-mates for attacking sequence involvements in the Europa League (37), having totted up 16 shots, 11 chances created and 10 involvements in the build up to a shot.
Sevilla vs Juventus Prediction
It feels like anyone’s game with the tie level after the first leg, though Opta’s supercomputer understandably leans more towards Sevilla as the hosts and the UEFA Europa League experts.
Mendilibar’s men have been given a 41.5% chance of winning it in normal time, while Juventus are handed a 31.0% chance. A draw is given a 27.5% likelihood, so who know? Perhaps extra-time and penalties could be on the way.