Premier League Predictions
With the help of our trusty AI-powered supercomputer, we give Premier League predictions across the matches in each gameweek.
As we head into the penultimate week of fixtures, we have to admit there’s a slight problem. The supercomputer now feels that it has a good grasp on how every team is performing this season and, as a result, it hasn’t thrown up anything in terms of shocks or surprises.
For example, we can expect to see Manchester City (62.5%) secure their fifth title in six seasons with victory over Chelsea on Sunday, regardless of what Arsenal do in their game. City’s last three Premier League games against the Blues have all ended with 1-0 wins, although they have never won four in a row against them in their league history. If they are able to overcome Frank Lampard’s outfit, they’ll become the fourth side to net 60 or more home Premier League goals in a season: with Chelsea being the first to do it in 2009-10 (68) before a City double in 2013-14 (63) and 2017-18 (61).
Arsenal need a win to keep any flicker of a ‘title race’ alight, having spent 248 days top of the Premier League table this season, which could end up being the most days a side has spent at the summit without going on to win the championship in English top-flight history. Their fans look set to have at least one more reason to cheer with the supercomputer making them favourites (56.7%) against Nottingham Forest, who seem to have found form at just the right time in their fight against relegation.
Steve Cooper’s side have earned seven points from their last four Premier League games (W2 D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 13 combined (W1 D4 L8). It has left them looking down on the sides around them in the relegation scrap, with the lowest chance of being relegated amongst those sides who could mathematically go down.
Whilst Everton might not be the favourites to take the victory against Wolves (39.8%), the Toffees’ chances of getting something from the game stands at over 60%, impressive considering their hosts have won their last four Premier League home games without conceding a single goal, although they’ve needed that tight defence as the current lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (30).
Wolves have shown a penchant for scoring in the opening 15 minutes of games, netting a league-high share of 27% (8/30) this season. However, Everton have conceded fewer in this timeframe than any other side (2) so whilst this doesn’t quite have Wrestlemania III vibes of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object, if the Toffees can survive an opening onslaught, there’s a chance they could pull themselves away from the relegation scrap.
Of the sides in the drop zone, Leicester City have the best chance of getting anything from their games this weekend, with their fourth consecutive Monday night game in the Premier League, even if Newcastle (41.2%) are expected to take the three points overall. Eddie Howe has never lost a home Premier League match against the Foxes (W4 D2), who themselves haven’t won their final away league game in any of the last eight seasons (D3 L5). I’m sure those aren’t the kind of stats that Dean Smith wants to hear, especially with his side the supercomputer favourites to join Southampton in the Championship next season.
A fighting point last time out means the Big Sam bounce is beginning to take place at Leeds United. But his own record against West Ham in recent times hasn’t been pretty. The fact he is winless in his last eight Premier League games against them, including defeats in his last five, albeit with four different clubs, is probably why the Hammers are predicted to take the win (48.6%).
Maybe the die has already been cast for the Whites though. They’ve conceded 150 league goals since the start of last season, which is more than any other side in the big five European leagues. It’s also the most league goals they’ve shipped across two consecutive top-flight seasons since the rather incredible 166 they did between 1958-60, with the side relegated from the top flight in the latter. Is history going to strike twice here?
Elsewhere on Sunday, Brighton (54.3%) are expected to bring an end to one of the strangest Premier League curses against Southampton. The home side has never won in the two sides’ 11 previous meetings in the competition (D6 L5), making it the most played fixture in the competition’s history without a home win. We already know it’s going to be the last one for at least a season, so what better time to grab those ever-important south-coast bragging rights?
The 26.9% chance of there being a draw between Bournemouth and Manchester United is doing a lot of work. None of the Cherries’ last 14 league games have been drawn (W7 L7), with Gary O’Neil’s side having tasted defeat in their last two Premier League games. I’ve always wondered what defeat actually tastes like? I’m guessing it’s a mixture of sour and bitter, which considering the range usually available in many low-level craft beer places, would cater for most of their customer’s needs. Anyway, United are the favourites (51.5%) to take the win and keep their grip on the final UEFA Champions League spot for next season.
Liverpool (61.7%) will keep up the pressure on the Red Devils thanks to victory over Aston Villa, a side they have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games against, including their last four away games. However, the Reds have lost six such home games against Villa overall, only losing more often at Anfield in the competition against Manchester United (12) and Chelsea (7).
Two cross-London derbies wrap up our penultimate predictions article of the season, with both games expected to see the home side emerge victorious. Tottenham (48.7%) look set to bring Brentford’s unbeaten streak in Premier League London derbies to a close at eight, although if the Bees do buzz it’ll be the first time they’ve won four consecutive league games against fellow London sides since March 2009 in League Two (when they won five in a row). And Fulham (40.9%) will complete a first Premier League double over Crystal Palace, following their 3-0 victory at Selhurst Park on Boxing Day earlier in the season.
We’ve built up the tension at the bottom of the Premier League table over the past few weeks, but it’s time to burst a little bit of a bubble for you as we head into gameweek 36.
None of the bottom EIGHT teams in the Premier League are favoured to win their games, according to the supercomputer. And the nearest hope of a win sits at the bottom of the table.
It is a must win game for Southampton (33.5%) on Saturday but having earned just 10 points from their 17 home leagues games this season (W2 D4 L11), you can understand why the supercomputer is backing Fulham (37.2%) to consign them to third relegation from the top-flight. It’s already guaranteed to be the Saints’ lowest ever home points total in a Football League season (assuming three points for a win), with just six points to play for in their remaining two games there – their previous low being 19 in the 2017-18 season.
Leeds United (30.8%) might not be favoured to hold off Newcastle United (41.2%) on home soil, but if they can pick up the win in the early game on Saturday, it will kick-start another weekend of drama at the bottom. They have won all four of their Premier League matches when start the day in the relegation zone this season and Sam Allardyce has won more Premier League matches against Newcastle (13) than any other side, although the Magpies have won four of their last five away league games (L1), as many as in their first 12 on the road this season (D6 L2).
It will be a bit of a waiting game for Leicester City (24.3%) to see how the weekend will play out as, like my local Foxes rifling the bins, they aren’t in action until Monday night. They have won their last two Premier League home games against Liverpool (49.4%) and it’s worth nothing the Reds have failed to put games to bed recently, with each of their last five Premier League games seeing them win by exactly one goal as they maintain the pressure on Manchester United in fourth.
Everton’s (11.7%) big victory last time out has given them a two-point cushion over the bottom three heading into the weekend, but their chances of picking up anything against Manchester City (67.3%) are pretty slim, especially considering they have scored the fewest home goals in the Premier League this season (15) and Sean Dyche has failed to beat the Cityzens in his last 12 meetings in the competition (D1 L11).
You might have thought that Nottingham Forest (15.7%) would be seen as a potential chance to pick up something against a Chelsea (59.8%) side who are winless in their last five home league games, losing both of their last two. But Steve Cooper’s men have done most of their hard work on home soil this season, winning just 18% of their points total (6/33) on the road, losing their last seven such games in a row.
West Ham (29.6%) and Bournemouth (25.7%) will both be grateful that they have all but secured their Premier League survival next season as they are expected to endure miserable days in west and south London respectively, with Brentford (41.7%) and Crystal Palace (45.7%) expected to pick up the wins. Remember that time EVERYONE thought Palace could go down this season? They are now 10 points clear of the drop.
Really, it’s not a week of surprises with the supercomputer, but Arsenal (51.8%) may get the chance to leapfrog City in the table if they do drop points against Everton. It’s doesn’t feel like it will be an easy task for Mikael Arteta’s side, on paper at least, against Brighton (21.6%) although the Seagulls have lost nine of their 10 Premier League away games against sides starting the day in the top two (D1), conceding 23 goals and scoring just six in reply.
We almost skipped over the game at Old Trafford because if history is to be believed, nothing much is going to happen. The last nine meetings between Manchester United (50.7%) and Wolves (21.6%) in all competitions have produced just 10 goals, with just three being scored in the four games at ‘The Theatre of Dreams’. It might well be that with napping fans if history is repeated.
And having enjoyed a run of goalscoring after taking over, Unai Emery have seen his Aston Villa (31.9%) fail to score in their last two games, after finding the back of the net in each of the 20 previously. Maybe that run will continue here with Spurs (39.9%) the supercomputer favourites, despite being without a win in their last six away league games (D2 L4). And as much as I’m all for technology, let’s hope there’s a little more pizzazz in the results than what our machine has to say.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 35: The Quick Hits
TOP OF THE TABLE: Man City not dethroned at top despite Arsenal triumph against Newcastle
BOTTOM OF THE TABLE: Vital wins for Leicester and Nottingham Forest in fight against relegation
It has already been a bad weekend for the Royals.
No, not the coronation ones – the relegated ones. Not long ago, Reading were plying their trade in the Premier League. But now, League One beckons. How did it go so wrong? Maybe we can get staunch Royals (the other ones) fan John Loughrey to, once again, quit his job and investigate?
He can probably start by asking them to reclaim the ‘Biscuitmen’ nickname, which would have saved this rather tedious Royal linked intro to our Premier League predictions on Coronation weekend but watch out for our great article next season – ‘League One clubs as Biscuits’. I’ll give you the starter for ten now: Wycombe Wanderers are Nice Biscuits. Small and instantly forgettable.
To the predictions then and it’s a big welcome back to Big Sam with four games to save Leeds United’s Premier League fate. At present, they are one of our three favourites to go down (alongside Southampton and Everton), which probably isn’t too much of a surprise when you consider they’ve got a tiny chance (3.2%) of defeating Manchester City (87.8%) at the Etihad. Leeds will be Allardyce’s ninth different Premier League club he’s managed, and he’s won the first game in charge at five of his previous eight clubs in the competition – he’ll need to sort their leaky defence that conceded 23 goals in April, the most in a month in Premier League history.
The rest of Saturday’s games are, if I’m honest, much of a muchness when it comes to final positions in the table. Wolves (34.7%) aren’t expected to bounce back following that crushing 6-0 defeat to Brighton last time out, with Aston Villa (35.4%) keeping their slim hopes of UEFA Europa League qualification alive.
Spurs (54.6%) might be the favourites to bring Crystal Palace’s (19.6%) recent good form to an end, but Eagles fans might not want to be late to their seats. Tottenham have conceded a league-high 13 goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games this season, with more than half of these (seven) coming in their most recent three games.
Tottenham’s hopes of European qualification next season have slipped from their grasp, with Liverpool (60.8%) in pole position to claim that UEFA Europa League spot, especially if they can make it six wins in their last six games, against Brentford (15.8%). If the Bees do pull off the win though, don’t expect Ivan Toney to be on the scoresheet. He’s alternated between not scoring (seven games) and scoring (seven games) in each of his last 14 Premier League games, at odds that must be almost unimaginable.
There is some better news for Chelsea (49.2%) fans, as our supercomputer sees their miserable run of form coming to an end against Bournemouth (23.3%). This is despite the fact Frank Lampard has never won against the Cherries as a Premier League manager (D1 L2). Another defeat here and it would be their seventh in a row in all competitions, matching the club record they’ve achieved twice between December-January 1960-61 and November-December 1952.
Those title hopes may be thin for Arsenal (40.1%) now, but our supercomputer still sees them heading up to Newcastle (31.4%) and picking up the win. Much like many Brits on a bank holiday weekend, going on the road has been struggle for Mikel Arteta’s side recently, winless in their last three Premier League away games (D2 L1), which is as many times as they’d failed to win in their first 14 on the road this season (D1 L2). Newcastle won this exact fixture 2-0 last season – not since their first three seasons in the Premier League have they won consecutive home games against the Gunners. Something must give here.
When we published our look at who would be relegated from the Premier League earlier this week, a lot was made of the omission of West Ham. There’s no doubt the Hammers have got one of the toughest run-ins, in particular this double dosing of Manchester sides, with Man United making the trip to the London Stadium, where they are favourites to take the win (38.5%), after defeat against Man City on Wednesday. Any points would be considered a bonus for West Ham here, with David Moyes winless in his last 10 Premier League games against Manchester United (D2 L8), with his last win coming when he was Everton manager in August 2012.
We might as well talk about the Everton now. Their draw against Leicester extended their winless streak to seven overall (D4 L3), leaving them a point from safety and one of the supercomputer favourites for the drop, especially as it is predicting that Brighton (49.4%) will come out on top in their clash on Monday. Sean Dyche’s sides really do have some away day blues, winless in their last 13 such Premier League games, even if they have finished level in four of their last five. But that malaise isn’t firmly on his shoulders. Of the 17 teams to play the past two Premier League campaigns, the Toffees have won fewer away games (three), fewer away points (21) and scored fewer away goals (28) than any other side since the start of last season.
For the two sides who have been tipped to survive by the supercomputer, this feels like an extremely pivotal weekend. Both Nottingham Forest (35.8% vs Southampton) and Leicester City (37.8% against Fulham) are favoured to emerge from their games victorious. The Foxes find themselves on the road in west London having won just once on the road since the World Cup break (D2 L6) and failing to keep a clean sheet in the process, but they have earned five points from their last three games (W1 D2).
For Forest, they’ll be hoping to keep a clean sheet for the first time in 14 Premier League games, although that didn’t affect them last time out at home as they defeated Brighton 3-1. Maybe it’s something about sides from the seaside heading up to grounds by a river that has our supercomputer backing the hosts here.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 34: The Quick Hits
TOP OF THE TABLE: Top four pick up victories to further cement UEFA Champions League football next season
BOTTOM OF THE TABLE: Leicester win pulls them out of the relegation zone, Nottingham Forest drop back in with Leeds also victorious
Who would be a supercomputer at the moment?
I’m sure the health benefits are good and maybe even the pension is more than acceptable. But April and May in a football season just leave a lot of people asking questions. Too many questions to be precise.
‘Who’s going up? Who’s going down? Where are this team going to finish? What about the Eredivisie?’ (Feyenoord, if you must ask. But you would have known ages ago if you were following our projection on Twitter and not been sidetracked by the suggestion of Ajax from some long-deleted quarters).
After a long, tough week of predictions, another one follows. The picture might be a lot clearer at the top, but at the bottom there’s still plenty of play for. So, roll up, roll up, let’s see what Premier League gameweek 34 has in store for us all.
We won’t dive too much into the early kick-off on Saturday as we’ve got a much deeper preview to the game elsewhere, but it should be a tantalising close game at Selhurst Park even if the stakes aren’t as high as it felt they might be at one point. West Ham (35.6%) are the slightly of favourites to see off Crystal Palace (34.7%) and with it secure their Premier League status for next season.
The form book at the AMEX Community Stadium suggests we should be pencilling in a Wolves win, having won three of their last four Premier League games (L1) without conceding a goal in any of those victories, whilst Brighton have lost two of their last three, as many as they had done in their previous 13 combined (W7 D4). The supercomputer is throwing that convention aside though, backing the FA Cup semi-finalists (44.0%) to overcome their heartache and get back to winning ways.
The trio of clubs in the relegation zone will be looking longingly at Brentford on Saturday, hoping they can clip of wings of Nottingham Forest following their midweek victory over the Seagulls. The good news for those sides is that Forest are on the road, where they’ve picked up the fewest points (six) and scored the fewest goals (seven) of any side in the Premier League this season, losing their last six in a row whilst conceding at least twice in each defeat. Maybe they’ll upset the apple cart once again, but our supercomputer is backing the Bees (55.4%) to buzz.
Only one of those sides might be able to take advantage of that win on Sunday, but in reality, Southampton are staring into the abyss at the moment. What better way to cheer themselves up after being given a 97.7% chance of being relegated than with their longest away trip of the season up to Newcastle? The Saints are winless in their last 18 Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top four (D8 L10), whilst Newcastle have lost just one of their last 22 games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W12 D9). You don’t need me to tell you that the Mapgies (52.4%) are favourites to be victorious again here.
Another side who should be able to pull away from the abyss are Leeds United. Level on points with Forest going into the weekend’s games, they have been made favourite (37.1%) to defeat Bournemouth, despite the fact the Whites have won just nine points on the road this season and have kept a clean sheet in just one of their last 18 such games. The more likely reason why Leeds have been made favourites, Bournemouth have lost 22 of their 30 Premier League games played on a Sunday (W6 D2). Bob Geldof wouldn’t have been needed to tell them why, here.
You might have thought we’d forgotten about the battle at the top of the table, but it seems to be all over there following Manchester City’s big 4-1 victory over Arsenal in midweek. A 92% chance of going on to lift the title, but they still need to pick up the victories, although the supercomputer sees them having no trouble (64.8%) on the road against Fulham on Sunday.
It was the start of Aston Villa’s rise up the table when Unai Emery led them to victory in his first game in charge at Villa Park against Manchester United. Now just two positions separate them in the race for Champions League qualification, although United do have two games in hand and a six-point advantage, which will become nine if the supercomputer’s prediction of a Red Devils victory (48.9%) comes to fruition. Matt Furniss has also taken a closer look at the game at Old Trafford.
That defeat for Aston Villa will open up Liverpool’s eyes with their chances of sneaking a top five finish ever increasing with three victories on the spin despite conceding in each match. Tottenham Hotspur may have shown some fighting spirit to gain a draw against Man United, but they are winless in their last five Premier League away games, losing as many games in this run (three) has they had in the previous 16 on the road beforehand (W8 D5). It’s a run that looks set to continue here with Jurgen Klopp’s outfit the favourites (55.2%).
Back in 1992, when the Premier League launched with a whole new ballgame, one of the highlights was Monday Night Football. It’s a tradition that has remained although, at times, the pizzazz of the fixtures have slightly dwindled. That’s certainly not going to be the case this week with Leicester City and Everton both hoping to pick up a victory that will carry them out from the relegation zone at such a crucial time.
The Toffees are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games (D5 L7) and are also coming up against somewhat of a nemesis in the shape of Dean Smith who has won four and lost none of his six Premier League meetings against Everton. The supercomputer sees him adding another one to the victory column here too (51.9%) and really plunge Sean Dyche’s side into deep, deep trouble.
And the weekend’s action rounds off on Tuesday if that’s possible. A good break for Arsenal to reset following their disappointment against Man City and could bounce-back opportunities come any kinder than taking on Chelsea at the moment? The Blues have lost all five matches in all competitions since Frank Lampard’s return to the club and it doesn’t get better for them here – the Gunners are favourites (43.5%) to inflict a 20th defeat of the season on the Blues. The last time Chelsea suffered that many losses in a single campaign was way back in 1987-88.
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