Relegation scraps don’t get much bigger than this. We look ahead to 18th vs 19th in the Premier League with our Leicester vs Everton prediction and stats preview.
Leicester vs Everton: Quick Stats
- Leicester City the Opta favourites (51.9%) to win a huge relegation clash at the foot of the table.
- As we approach kick-off, Everton are given a (73.9%) chance of relegation, while Leicester sit at 34.3%.
- Leicester set to do the double over Everton for the first time since their title-winning 2015-16 season.
This game could well be each side’s biggest game of the season so far. Both Leicester and Everton are in huge trouble at the bottom of the Premier League table and go head-to-head on Monday at King Power Stadium.
In our overall Premier League predictions heading into the weekend, Everton (73.9%) are our second favourites to get relegated come the end of the season, while Leicester (34.3%) are fifth most likely.
The Foxes picked up a point at Leeds on Tuesday thanks to Jamie Vardy’s late equaliser, and with a 2-1 home win over Wolves on the prior matchday they’ve now picked up points in back-to-back matches, having gone without a win in their previous nine games before facing Wolves (D1 L8).
Have Leicester turned an ever-so-slight corner under Dean Smith? He’s got them four points across his three games in charge so far and Foxes’ fans will be pleased to see him in the dugout against Everton. Dean Smith has won four and lost none of his six Premier League meetings with Everton, winning three of his four at home against the Toffees. Only Antonio Conte (seven) has faced Everton more without ever losing to them as a manager in the competition.
It’s really now or never for Leicester. After this must-win game, their next three opponents (Fulham, Liverpool and Newcastle) currently sit in the top half of the standings, before they face West Ham in the last game of the season.
Everton’s time as an ever-present Premier League club is in serious jeopardy. In fact, the Toffees haven’t been relegated in 69 straight top-flight seasons and were last relegated in 1950-51. Sean Dyche’s side were outclassed against Newcastle United at Goodison Park in their last Premier League match, slumping to a 4-1 defeat. That loss extended their winless streak to six (W0 D3 L3), and they’ve just one once in their last 10 Premier League matches (W1 D4 L5). But they’ve been in this position before. As recently as last season, in fact. Everton entered May in 18th place in 2021-22, five points from safety with two points in hand. They finally moved out of the relegation zone with a 2-1 win in this fixture on May 8 last season and never dropped back into the bottom three before clinching safety. With games against Brighton and Manchester City coming up next, Everton will need to get something against Leicester here to set themselves up to beat Wolves and Bournemouth in their last two games.
Everton 0-2: 5 November 2022 (Premier League)
In the reverse fixture earlier this season, it was Leicester who prevailed 2-0. Both sides had different men in the dugout, with Frank Lampard still in charge on Merseyside and Brendan Rodgers suited up for the away team.
Youri Tielemans opened the scoring on the stroke of half-time with an absolute rocket. Positioned on the edge of Everton’s box, James Maddison laid the ball back to the Belgian who teed the ball up for himself with his thigh, before ripping a volley into the top corner past Jordan Pickford’s forlorn dive. Only Maddison (17) and Riyad Mahrez (eight) have scored more goals from outside the box than Tielemans for Leicester.
It was no more than Leicester deserved, either, having attempted 15 shots in the first half which is still the highest number they’ve taken in the first half of a Premier League game this season.
Although he’s now been replaced by Daniel Iversen, Danny Ward had a solid game in goal for Leicester, thwarting efforts from Michael Keane and Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Harvey Barnes finished off a quick Leicester counter in the last 10 minutes to seal victory.
The world looked a lot different in November 2022. With this win, The Foxes jumped to 13th in the table, and Everton were still in 15th despite defeat. This clean sheet was Leicester’s fifth in their previous seven matches, which is a far cry from their defensive vulnerabilities now.
Following that win, Leicester are looking to complete the Premier League double over Everton for just the second time, previously doing so in their 2015-16 title-winning campaign.
Look, the form book isn’t going to look pretty when you’ve got a game pitching 18th vs 19th. They’re down there for a reason.
Leicester have conceded in each of their last 18 Premier League games, their joint-longest run without a clean sheet in the competition. They last had a longer run without a league shutout between April and December 1994, a run of 21 which included their first 18 Premier League matches. Smith’s men have lost 20 games this season – the most they’ve lost in a Premier League season in over 20 years (2001-02 – also 20).
Everton are winless in their last 12 Premier League away games (D5 L7), failing to score on nine separate occasions in that run. Since beating Brighton 2-0 in August 2021, they’ve won just two of their last 33 away league games (D10 L21), with all three of their clean sheets in that run coming in 0-0 draws.
Leicester: Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy scored his first goal in 20 Premier League appearances last time out at Leeds, earning a vital point for the Foxes. With Kelechi Iheanacho limping off with a groin injury in the same game, Leicester need Vardy back to something resembling form. The club’s leading scorer last scored in back-to-back Premier League games for Leicester in May 2022 and, just like it is for the club, you feel like it’s do or die right now.
Everton: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Everton also need to start scoring goals and they need to do so quickly. They’ve bagged just 25 goals this campaign – fewer than any other Premier League side – and their leading frontman Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been sorely absent up top. Only Chelsea (one) have scored fewer goals than Everton (three) in April.
Having missed the previous 10 Premier League games with a hamstring injury, the England forward has started the last two games. He’s taken three shots in each game and has led the side for touches in the opposition box. He needs to start making those opportunities count.
Calvert-Lewin will surely lead the blue for the Toffees again when the lineups are released.
Leicester vs Everton Prediction
Leicester are the strong favourites with the Opta supercomputer for this ‘six-pointer’, with the model giving them a 51.9% chance of victory on Monday night. The draw – a result which probably helps no one – is the next most likely outcome at 26.3%, with an Everton win out at 21.8%.
Both sides will be desperate to pick points in this scrap, particularly with the bottom half of the table so tightly packed. The Opta supercomputer predicts Everton’s most likely finishing position will be 19th, while it thinks Leicester will do just enough to survive in 16th. Joining Everton will be Southampton and Leeds, with Nottingham Forest just scraping survival. Bournemouth and West Ham’s recent form has been enough to distance themselves from the pack.
At the top, Man City have the edge now over Arsenal, while the battle for the remaining Champions League spot in a toss-up between Newcastle and Manchester United, with Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Villa trailing.