Sean Dyche’s men occupy the driver’s seat in the race to avoid relegation on the final day of the Premier League season, but they cannot slip up against the Cherries. It’s our Everton vs Bournemouth prediction and preview.

Everton vs Bournemouth: Quick Stats

  • An Everton win keeps them up, and the Opta supercomputer gives them a 44.8% chance of victory on Sunday.
  • The Toffees have only won one of their last 10 games (D5 L4).
  • Bournemouth have lost their last three but have beaten Everton twice already this season.

Match Preview

It all comes down to this. With just one game left, the trio of Everton, Leeds United and Leicester City know that two of them will no longer be Premier League teams by Sunday evening.

Having fought to stay up last season, Everton are favourites to do so again, arriving on the final day two points ahead of both of their rivals and with a better goal difference than Leeds. Win and they guarantee safety. Draw and they will be down if Leicester beat West Ham United or if Leeds defeat Tottenham Hotspur by at least a three-goal margin. Lose and any Leicester or Leeds win will see them down. The Toffees of course have the cushion of knowing they will be safe no matter what if both Leicester and Leeds fail to win.

The supercomputer should make Everton fans feel more at ease, giving Sean Dyche’s men a 79.6% chance of continuing their 69-year stay in England’s top flight. Leicester are given a 17.0% chance of pipping them, while Sam Allardyce’s belated presence at Elland Road doesn’t look like it will work as it did for Everton in 2017-18, with Leeds handed just a 3.3% likelihood of avoiding the drop.

Premier League survival percentages

All Everton can do is play the game in front of them, and that comes in the form of a Bournemouth side that have already beaten them well twice this season. Back-to-back games in the League Cup and Premier League in November at the Vitality Stadium saw Everton suffer a torrid few days in Dorset, losing 4-1 in the cup before a 3-0 defeat followed in the league.

They also lost their last home game against the Cherries, defeated 3-1 on the final day of the 2019-20 season. In fact, Bournemouth have won their last three Premier League games against Everton, hitting three goals on each occasion, after having only won two of their first eight against them in the competition (D2 L4).

Everton don’t tend to finish the season strongly either, having lost their final league match in five of the last six seasons (D1), and conceding at least three goals in each defeat. In the last two years, they have lost 5-0 at Manchester City and 5-1 at Arsenal.

Despite having the advantage over their rivals, it has not exactly been a great escape from them. The remarkable 5-1 win at Brighton is their only victory in their last 10 games, and they are winless in their last four at home (D1 L3), losing the last three in a row and conceding 10 goals.

It wasn’t that long ago that Bournemouth were in the relegation scrap themselves, but some impressive results under Gary O’Neil lifted them away from danger and they could finish as high as 13th with a win on Sunday.

They still leak goals, but it doesn’t seem to matter all that much. Bournemouth have conceded 70 times in the Premier League this season, but this will mark the eighth occasion that a team conceding 70 or more goals have not been relegated in the competition, becoming the first side to do so twice (also in 2018-19).

Previous Meeting

Bournemouth 3-0 Everton: 12 November 2022 (Premier League)

Bournemouth 3-0 Everton

Just four days after beating the Toffees 4-1 in the League Cup third round, Bournemouth were at it again. There was a calamitous moment in the 18th minute for Jordan Pickford as he spilled Dominic Solanke’s relatively tame shot straight to Marcus Tavernier, who prodded the hosts in front.

It was 2-0 seven minutes later after some more slack play at the back from Everton saw Philip Billing keep the ball in and Tavernier headed across goal for Kieffer Moore to force it over the line. The goal stood despite the visitors’ protests over one of their players appearing to be down with a head injury. It meant Tavernier became the first ever Bournemouth player to both score and assist in back-to-back Premier League appearances.

The game was sealed in the second half when Lewis Cook’s in-swinging free kick was headed in by Jaidon Anthony. The result meant at the time that since the start of last season, Everton had earned fewer away points than any other ever-present side in the Premier League (16), winning just three of their 27 games on the road (D7 L17).

Previous Meeting Line-ups

Bournemouth: Marcus Travers; Adam Smith, Jack Stephens, Marcos Senesi, Jordan Zemura; Jefferson Lerma, Lewis Cook, Philip Billing, Marcus Tavernier; Kieffer Moore, Dominic Solanke. Used Subs: Jaidon Anthony, Ryan Christie, Ben Pearson

Everton: Jordan Pickford; Nathan Patterson, James Tarkowski, Conor Coady, Vitalii Mykolenko; Idrissa Gueye, Amadou Onana, Alex Iwobi; Dwight McNeil, Demarai Gray, Neal Maupay. Used subs: Seamus Coleman, Tom Cannon, Abdoulaye Doucouré, Anthony Gordon

Recent Form

Despite rarely winning in recent games, Everton can point to Dyche’s appointment as a success so far, especially if they stay up. The former Burnley boss has picked up 18 points in his 17 Premier League games in charge (1.1 per game), compared to the 15 points in 20 gained under his predecessor Frank Lampard this season (0.8 per game).

The big hope for Everton will be that their opponents could very well be ‘on the beach’. With safety confirmed, it does on the face of it look like Bournemouth have lowered their guard in recent games, losing their last three outings against Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Manchester United.

However, they can still boast a sting in the tail when they are on the road. O’Neil’s men have won five Premier League away games this season – only ever winning more in their maiden campaign of 2015-16 (six).

Key Players

Everton: Dwight McNeil

After a slow start to life at Everton, it is no wonder Dwight McNeil is thriving now that he is back under the management of his former Burnley gaffer Dyche.

The 23-year-old was integral to the 5-1 thrashing of Brighton and was a menace against Wolves last time out as well as they rescued a dramatic 1-1 draw late on at Molineux. He has also created three more big chances than any of his teammates this season with 11.

McNeil is Everton’s top scorer in the league this season with seven goals, though if that remains the case after Sunday, he will be the Toffees’ lowest scoring top scorer in a single campaign since 2001-02 (Duncan Ferguson and Tomasz Radzinski both with six).

Dwight McNeil xG

Bournemouth: Dominic Solanke

He may not have exactly been an Anfield legend, but there would be something appropriate about a former Liverpool player sending Everton down.

Since signing for Bournemouth from the Reds in 2018, Solanke has slowly grown into a key figure and is starting to fulfil the promise he showed as a youngster at Chelsea.

The 25-year-old has 14 goal involvements in all competitions (7G 7A), and unsurprisingly leads his team for attacking sequence involvements with 108, recording 72 shots, 20 chances created and 16 involvements in the build-up to a shot.

Bournemouth attacking sequence involvements

Everton vs Bournemouth Prediction

As mentioned, a win will ease all fears for Everton as it guarantees safety. The supercomputer gives them a 44.8% chance of victory, while a nerve-jangling defeat to Bournemouth comes in at a 26.6% chance.

That leaves a 28.6% probability of a draw, which really would leave the blue half of Merseyside glued to their radios. The Cherries don’t tend to draw though, with none of their last 15 Premier League games ending level (W7 L8).

Everton vs Bournemouth Opta prediction

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