West Ham vs Arsenal: Prediction and Preview
We’ve got a London derby to look forward to on Sunday afternoon, with Mikel Arteta taking his table topping Gunners to the London Stadium. We look ahead to the game with our West Ham vs Arsenal prediction and Opta preview.
West Ham vs Arsenal: Quick Hits
- Arsenal the favourites to beat West Ham with the Opta supercomputer ahead of kick-off (42.8%).
- The Gunners have won all five of their Premier League London derbies away from home this season with an aggregate score of 11-0.
- West Ham have lost eight Premier League matches against Arsenal after scoring the first goal, including their 3-1 defeat on Boxing Day this season.
Arsenal will be looking to pick up their sixth London derby away win of the 2022-23 Premier League season on Sunday, as they made the short trip across the capital to face West Ham United at the London Stadium.
The Gunners have won all five of their London derbies away from home in the Premier League so far this season, with an aggregate score of 11-0 – only twice before have they won six consecutive league derbies on the road, doing so in February 1989 and March 2014.
If the Hammers are to stop Arsenal’s title charge, then they’ll have to improve their poor record against them. West Ham have won just two of their last 29 Premier League meetings with Arsenal, winning just 11 points from a possible 87 in this period (W2 D5 L22). Their last league victory against them came at home in January 2019, winning 1-0 courtesy of a Declan Rice goal.
Arsenal have often done it the hard way against West Ham in the competition. They’ve won eight Premier League games against West Ham after conceding the first goal, including a 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture at the Emirates in December. It’s both the most wins Arsenal have against an opponent when conceding first, and the most defeats West Ham have against a side when opening the scoring in the competition.
Make sure you’ve got your eyes on Sunday’s game in the 38th minute. That exact minute has produced a goal in each of the last three West Ham vs Arsenal encounters at the London Stadium.
Mikel Arteta remains unbeaten as Arsenal manager against West Ham in the Premier League (P6 W5 D1). Indeed, against no other side have the Gunners won more often under the Spaniard than against the Hammers, while only against Leeds (15) and Everton (14) have they scored more goals (13 vs West Ham).
In the other dugout, West Ham manager David Moyes has won just one of his last 24 Premier League games against Arsenal (D7 L16), with that victory coming with Manchester United in November 2013 (1-0). All eyes will be on the pre-match team news, as William Saliba faces a 50/50 battle to make this game following injury. Arsenal will definitely be without Eddie Nketiah, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Mohamed Elneny with injury, while West Ham won’t have Gianluca Scamacca to call upon. The summer signing from Serie A club Sassuolo is out with a knee injury.
Arsenal came from being 1-0 down at half-time in this match to win 3-1 come full-time, thanks to second half goals from Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Eddie Nketiah past Hammers’ goalkeeper and former Arsenal glovesman Lukasz Fabianski.
Saka’s goal meant that he’s scored for Arsenal in three successive seasons on Boxing Day (after 2020 vs. Chelsea and 2021 vs. Norwich) – the first player to do so for Arsenal since Thierry Henry between 2002 and 2004.
Martin Ødegaard assisted Saka and Nketiah’s goals for the Gunners in this match – the second successive Premier League game on Boxing Day that he’d managed to assist twice after their 2021 win over Norwich.
This is one of three Premier League matches that Arsenal have won despite losing at half-time in 2022-23 (also Aston Villa away and Bournemouth at home) and helped contribute three points towards the 15 that they have won from losing positions this season – a tally that is behind only Crystal Palace (20).
Saïd Benrahma fired past Aaron Ramsdale to give West Ham a half-time lead from the penalty spot on 27 minutes – this was just the third time in the 2022-23 Premier League that Arsenal had conceded the opening goal of a match.
Arsenal come into this game after giving up a 2-0 lead at Anfield and eventually drawing 2-2 versus Liverpool in the Premier League last weekend. Before that, they’d secured back-to-back Premier League wins over Crystal Palace and Leeds United, both by 4-1 scorelines.
Arsenal are unbeaten in five successive away games in all competitions since losing 1-0 to both Man City and Everton. Their five most recent away trips have seen them secure wins against Aston Villa, Leicester City and Fulham while drawing at Sporting CP in the UEFA Europa League and at Anfield vs. Liverpool.
Arsenal have won 11 Premier League away games this season, only winning more on the road in 2001-02 (14) and 2004-05 (12). The Gunners have the most wins (11), most points (35), most goals scored (30) and fewest goals conceded (11) of any team away from home in the Premier League this term.
West Ham have picked up two wins in their last three Premier League games, beating both Fulham and Southampton by 1-0 scorelines either side of a 5-1 home defeat thanks to Newcastle United.
The Hammers have lost just one of their last seven home matches in all competitions – that solitary defeat coming 5-1 at home to Newcastle on 5 April with Kurt Zouma scoring their only goal. They’d previously defeated Everton, Nottingham Forest, AEK Larnaca and Southampton at the London Stadium in this run, while drawing with Chelsea and Aston Villa (both 1-1).
They come into this game following a 1-1 draw at Gent in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday night in Belgium, with striker Danny Ings netting their only goal. David Moyes’ side have won as many games in the UEFA Europa Conference League this season (eight of nine) as they have in the Premier League (eight of 29). Overall, half of their 20 competitive wins this season have come in European competition, including qualifiers (10).
West Ham: Declan Rice
West Ham captain and England international Declan Rice will be integral to any success the Hammers may have this weekend versus Arsenal.
He is the only player to have played every single minute of West Ham’s Premier League campaign so far in 2022-23 (2,610) and only Jarrod Bowen (40) and Saïd Benrahma (38) have created more chances than he has (33 – level with Aaron Cresswell).
Everything goes through Rice. He’s averaged 51 successful passes per 90 in the Premier League this season – 12 higher than any other player in the squad, while he also averages the most ball touches (72) and is one of the Premier League leading progressive ball carriers. Of central midfielders in the competition in 2022-23, only Man City’s Rodri (11.9) and Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic (8.9) average more progressive carries per 90 than Rice (8.6).
Rice scored his first Premier League goal against Arsenal, netting the only goal in a 1-0 victory for West Ham back in January 2019 as a teenager.
Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus
Arsenal signed two reigning Premier League title winners from Man City in the summer, with the arrivals of Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko. They’ll be hoping their luck can rub off on the Gunners in the hunt for the PL title this season.
No player currently in the Arsenal squad has scored more Premier League goals versus West Ham than Jesus (three) – those coming in three different wins for former club Manchester City.
Jesus’s goal at Liverpool last weekend was the 53rd Premier League game that he’d scored in (66 goals in total) and he’s still yet to lose any of those matches. In fact, he’s now only one away from James Milner’s Premier League record of 54 games scored in and never losing.
All 66 of Jesus’ goals have come inside the penalty area – no player has scored more goals in the competition with them all coming exclusively inside the opposition box.
If Jesus fails to find the net on Sunday, then Arsenal should be able to count on his Brazilian compatriot Gabriel Martinelli. The youngster has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances against West Ham (three goals, one assist) – against no side has he been involved in more league goals than versus the Hammers (four).
West Ham vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer believes that Arsenal are the more likely side to win this London derby on Sunday, with the Gunners’ chances rated at 42.8%. The home side West Ham can’t be ruled out, at 28.8%, however.
Following their 2-2 draw at Liverpool last weekend, Arsenal found themselves six points ahead of Manchester City having played a game more and still having to travel to the Etihad Stadium to face their rivals.
As a result, the Opta supercomputer shifted its title predictions in favour of Man City, giving them a 54.4% chance of winning a third successive title ahead of this matchday, compared to Arsenal’s current chance of 45.6%.
West Ham are not out of relegation trouble yet, with three-point cushion between themselves and the relegation zone. However, with six teams below them in the table (Bournemouth, Leeds, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Leicester City and Southampton), the Opta supercomputer is giving David Moyes’ side just a 4.9% chance of dropping down to the Championship at the end of 2022-23.
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