We look ahead to the second leg of this UEFA Europa League quarter-final at Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, Seville with our Sevilla vs Manchester United prediction and preview.
Sevilla vs Manchester United: Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester United the favourites to win this match versus Sevilla (46.5%).
- If they do win, it’ll be Man Utd’s first win in five attempts versus the Spanish side.
- Manchester United look set to be without their top scorer Marcus Rashford (28 goals) and their leading assist maker Bruno Fernandes (11 assists) for this game.
Match Preview
Entering the final stages of the first leg of this tie, Manchester United would have been forgiven for thinking that they had a solid lead wrapped up ready for the second leg in Spain. Sevilla had other ideas. Two unfortunate own goals in the final six minutes of the match at Old Trafford mean that the tie is all square coming into this encounter at Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan on Thursday.
Manchester United do have an unblemished UEFA Europa League away record to keep intact in this game, too. They have not been defeated in any of their away matches in the competition this season with four wins and one draw on their travels – three of those games were played in Spain, against Real Sociedad, Barcelona and Real Betis.
Past meetings between these two clubs have seen Man United winless in four attempts against Sevilla (D2 L2) – the only other club that they have played in European competition as often without winning is Atlético Madrid.
A big blow for Man Utd is the absence of influential midfielder Bruno Fernandes through suspension following his first leg booking. The Portuguese was at his best in United’s weekend Premier League win at Nottingham Forest and will be a huge miss for the English giants.
Other absentees for United are central defensive pairing Lisandro Martínez and Raphaël Varane. Argentine Martínez was carried off the field in the first leg with a fractured metatarsal, which has prematurely ended his season, while Varane will be missing for a few more weeks, meaning Erik ten Hag will have to dig deep into the squad for solutions.
Sevilla have a clean bill of health as they welcome United to Seville for this match. They faced a relegation six-pointer on Sunday night against Valencia against a hostile crowd and a desperate opponent but came away unscathed. They are eight points above the relegation zone with a clash against Villarreal on the horizon on Sunday night. While they can’t take their LaLiga status next year for granted, they can put a considerable share of their eggs into the Europa League basket and will have nothing to lost on Thursday night.
Last Meeting
Manchester United 2-2 Sevilla: 13 April 2023 (UEFA Europa League)
Manchester United’s first leg 2-2 draw with Sevilla saw them squander a two-goal lead in a major European match for the first time since a 3-3 draw with Basel in September 2011.
Both goals were own goals from Tyrell Malacia and Harry Maguire – meaning Man Utd became only the second English side to score two own goals in a single match in a major European competition, after Chelsea against Erik ten Hag’s Ajax in November 2019.
Manchester United had a higher expected goals total, more shots on target and more possession in the first leg at Old Trafford last week but the magic, or the absurdity, of Mendilibar’s style of play is that they put the ball into the box so often that they will always give themselves a chance.
Both of United’s goals came in the first half via Marcel Sabitzer. He has scored more goals in his 13 games for Man Utd in all competitions (three) than in 54 appearances for Bayern Munich (two). The Austrian scored his first brace since March 2020 for RB Leipzig against Tottenham in the UEFA Champions League.
Recent Form
Jose Luis Mendilibar has revitalised Sevilla after coming in to save them from relegation. He is their third manager of the year after Julen Lopetegui and Jorge Sampaoli were sacked from their post by director of football, Monchi. Mendilibar has united the dressing room and has roused the crowd.
They have beaten Cadíz, drawn with Celta Vigo and Manchester United and they travelled to the Mestalla and beat Valencia at the weekend. They have scored two in all four of those games. Sevilla’s history in the competition gives their fans hope of some predestined right to progress on Thursday night and the stadium will be fizzing with energy upon the visit of one of Europe’s truly historic teams.
Manchester United have won three in a row in the Premier League without conceding a goal, beating Brentford, Everton and Nottingham Forest in that time. Prior to that, they lost to Newcastle, which plunged them back into the battle for Champions League football having looked destined for a third-place finish. They are playing for a treble with an FA Cup semi-final against Brighton and Hove Albion at the weekend.
United have scored in each of their last 10 games in the Europa League, only failing to score when Real Sociedad beat them 1-0 at Old Trafford back in September. That was the last and only time they lost in the competition this season, winning eight and drawing two of their last 10 games.
Sevilla have won 23 of their last 26 home matches in the UEFA Europa League (D2 L1). José Luis Mendilibar is the seventh manager to manage Sevilla in the competition and five of the previous six have won their first home game in the competition, with Antonio Álvarez the other, losing against PSG in September 2010.
Key Players
Manchester United: Antony
Antony’s battle with Marcus Acuña last Thursday was fascinating. Sevilla play a style that is very open and chaotic, meaning there will be spaces for Antony to drive into and chances for him to take on his man out wide in one-on-one situations. Antony led all United players with shots (four) and dribbles (six) and touches inside the box (seven) in the first leg. That should continue and could increase in the absence of Fernandes.
Antony’s 27 attempted dribbles in the Europa League is second only to Marcus Rashford (30) for United this season.
Sevilla: Lucas Ocampos
Lucas Ocampos is a crowd favourite at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and he has been reborn under Mendilibar. He spent the first half of the season on loan at Ajax but returned after a disappointing spell and has been important to Mendilibar’s revolution.
He was involved in 25 duels in the first leg at Old Trafford, which led all Sevilla players – second on the list was Acuña with 12. The Argentine’s seven tackles also led the team, more than double Acuña’s three. Behind a home crowd baying for progression into the semi-final, Ocampos will be even more energised and important to Sevilla’s effort.
Sevilla vs Manchester United Prediction
The Opta supercomputer was bullish on Manchester United ahead of the first leg but doesn’t give them as high a chance of success in the second leg. They were the better team in that game at Old Trafford but the dynamics have changed now with the score tied, travelling to Sevilla in front of a home crowd buoyed by recent results.
They have a 46.5% chance of victory, which makes them favourites in the supercomputer’s book. Sevilla have a 28.3% chance of winning on the night, meaning there’s a 25.2% chance of a draw. With away goals a thing of the past, there’s a good chance we have extra-time on Thursday night.
Sevilla vs Manchester United UEL Squads
Sevilla: Marko Dmitrović, Yassine Bounou,Alberto Flores*, Matías Árbol*, Gonzalo Montiel, Alex Telles, Karim Rekik, Tanguy Nianzou, Marcos Acuña, Marcão, Pablo Pérez*, Valentino Scotta, Diego Hormigo, Loïc Badé, Nemanja Gudelj, Joan Jordán, Ivan Rakitić, Erik Lamela, Fernando, Óliver Torres, Carlos Álvarez*, Manuel Bueno*, Suso, Rafa Mir, Youssef En-Nesyri, Jesús Navas, Alejandro Gómez, Bryan Gil*, Lucas Ocampos.
Manchester United: David de Gea, Tom Heaton, Jack Butland, Radek Vitek*, Victor Lindelöf, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Tyrell Malacia, Raphaël Varane, Diogo Dalot, Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Tyler Fredricson*, Bruno Fernandes, Christian Eriksen, Marcel Sabitzer, Fred, Casemiro, Jadon Sancho, Facundo Pellistri, Donny van de Beek, Scott McTominay, Zidane Iqbal*, Kobbie Mainoo*, Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford, Antony, Wout Weghorst, Anthony Elanga*, Alejandro Garnacho.
*Player List B
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