Leeds United vs Leicester City: Prediction and Preview
We look ahead to a huge Premier League relegation six-pointer on Tuesday night at Elland Road, with our Leeds United vs Leicester City prediction and preview.
Leeds United vs Leicester City: Quick Hits
- Leicester City are tipped to pick up a vital away win against Leeds United at Elland Road by the Opta supercomputer.
- Dean Smith’s side are being given a 43.9% chance of victory, compared to Leeds’ 29.1%.
- Leicester City haven’t won both league games in a season against Leeds since 1997-98.
Both these sides will be hoping for the three points in this Premier League relegation six-pointer on Tuesday night at Elland Road. After the weekend action, Leicester pulled themselves out of the relegation zone with a win over Wolves, but just goal difference separates them and 18th-place Everton.
Leeds are only one point better off after losing 2-1 in London at Fulham in the early game on Saturday, but they are now four points off the team above them – Bournemouth – in the Premier League table.
The Whites will need to improve their recent form against Leicester if they are to pick up an extremely valuable three points in this game. They’ve won just one of their last eight league meetings with Leicester (D3 L4), with that victory coming in January 2021 away from home (2-1). They lost 2-0 at the King Power Stadium in October – they haven’t lost both league games in a single season versus Leicester since 1997-98.
Both clubs have changed their manager since their last meeting six months ago, with Brendan Rodgers being replaced by former Aston Villa and Norwich City boss Dean Smith, while former Watford boss Javi Gracia took over at Leeds in February.
Luckily for Leeds, they don’t have many injury worries ahead of this huge clash, with only Stuart Dallas and US international midfielder Tyler Adams ruled out.
Leicester are sweating on the fitness of a key duo for Tuesday’s game, with James Maddison and Harvey Barnes hoping to be back in the squad after both missing their 2-1 home win over Wolves on Saturday. Barnes could equal a Premier League record should he return, having scored in all five of his Premier League games against Leeds. Only two players have scored in each of their first six appearances against an opponent in the competition, with Raheem Sterling and Mohamed Salah both doing so against Bournemouth. Jonny Evans may return to the squad after illness, while Jannik Vestergaard, Ryan Bertrand, James Justin, Ricardo Pereira are all unlikely to feature.
Leicester 2-0 Leeds: 20 October 2022 (Premier League)
Leicester picked up just their second Premier League win of the 2022-23 season when they defeated Leeds United 2-0 at the King Power Stadium in October.
An own goal from Robin Koch followed by a strike from Harvey Barnes past Leeds goalkeeper Illan Meslier sent Leicester City into the half-time break with a two-goal lead, and despite a spirited performance in the second half, Jesse Marsch’s Leeds side couldn’t come back.
Leicester’s second win of the season was not enough to lift them out of the relegation zone, but it did see them move above Nottingham Forest and send their rivals to the bottom of the league.
With Brendan Rodgers at the helm, Leicester had just five shots in this match, their fewest in a Premier League game that they won since December 2014 against Hull City (four shots, won 1-0) – something they replicated just three days later in their win over Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Leicester won 2-1 against Wolves last time out, ending a nine-game winless run in the Premier League (D1 L8). Each of their last three Premier League victories have come despite them conceding the first goal, also coming from behind to beat Aston Villa and Spurs in February.
Despite that victory against Wolves, Leicester remain the only side in Europe’s big-five leagues without a clean sheet following the World Cup break – they have conceded in each of their 17 games in that time and the only team to have conceded more in that period are Leeds (36).
Eleven of those 36 goals have come in Leeds’ last two home games – a 5-1 defeat to Crystal Palace and a 6-1 loss to Liverpool. No team in English top-flight history has shipped five or more goals in three consecutive home games, while in English Football League history the only side to do so are Rochdale in March/April 1932 in the Third Division North.
Having won and kept a clean sheet in their first Premier League game under Javier Gracia – a 1-0 win over Southampton, Leeds have conceded 23 goals in their last eight matches under the Spaniard. The Whites’ 2.6 goals conceded per game under Gracia is their highest under a single manager in the Premier League.
Leicester have picked up just four points in their last eight away Premier League games (W1 D1 L6), with their only win in this sequence coming at Aston Villa in February.
The Foxes aren’t fond of midweek action, either. Since the World Cup break, Leicester have lost all four of their Premier League matches that haven’t been played on a weekend, losing to Newcastle and Liverpool in December, Fulham in January and Aston Villa in April.
Leicester City: Kelechi Iheanacho
Nigerian striker Kelechi Iheanacho might be the man that can help Leicester City preserve their Premier League status in 2022-23. He’s their top scorer in all competitions since the return of club football post-World Cup, with seven of his eight goals this season coming since the restart.
Across 2022-23 as a whole, Iheanacho’s averaged the highest goals per 90 (0.58), expected goals per 90 (0.64) and shots attempted per 90 (4.2) of any player in the Leicester squad. His xG per 90 is more than double the next highest in the Foxes’ squad: Patson Daka’s 0.31, followed by Jamie Vardy on 0.29.
Iheanacho reached 50 Premier League goal involvements (30 goals, 20 assists) for Leicester City with his first ever penalty goal in the competition last time out against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Having scored against Man City and Wolves, he’ll be looking to find the back of the net in three consecutive league appearances for the first time since April 2021.
Leeds United: Rodrigo
His form of late might be off colour compared to earlier this season, but Leeds will need their 2022-23 Premier League top scorer Rodrigo back to his best… and quick.
With 11 goals, he’s scored nearly three times as many as any other Leeds player in the Premier League this season (Crysencio Summerville, Luis Sinisterra and Jack Harrison all on four), but those goals have dried up in since the return of league action post-World Cup. Since December, the Spanish forward has scored just two goals from 20 shots, but his minutes have been restricted through injury, having played just 662 mins of a possible 1,620 (41%).
He’s failed to score in all five Premier League appearances in April and last scored on 18 March in Leeds’ win over Wolves – their last Premier League away victory.
Leeds United vs Leicester City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer predicts more woe for Leeds in this match, with away side Leicester City being tipped the more likely side to pick up all three points (43.9%).
Leeds have been given a 29.1% chance of victory in this match at Elland Road – a three points that they very much need in this relegation six-pointer.
Before the action this weekend, Leicester’s chances of dropping to the Championship were almost double that of Leeds (46.4% vs 23.5%) but following Leeds’ defeat to Fulham and Leicester’s win at home to Wolves those chances have swung in the Foxes’ favour.
As it stands, Leicester City have a 30.6% chance of relegation and Leeds’ chances are at 37.7% – only Everton (55.8%), Nottingham Forest (79.2%) and Southampton (91.5%) have a higher chance of the drop.
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