We look ahead to the Monday night clash at Goodison Park in the Premier League, with our Everton vs Tottenham prediction and preview using the key Opta data insights.
Everton vs Tottenham: Quick Hits
- Tottenham the favourites for this game, with a 47.2% chance of beating Everton according to the Opta supercomputer.
- Spurs have won more Premier League games versus Everton than against any other opponent (29).
- Harry Kane has scored 14 goals in 15 Premier League games versus Everton – only versus Leicester City (18) has he scored more.
Tottenham begin life without Antonio Conte as manager with a Monday night Premier League trip to Goodison Park to face Everton. Following his departure on 26 March, his assistant manager Cristian Stellini will become acting head coach, with Ryan Mason as his ‘number two’, for the remainder of the 2022-23 season.
Stellini’s first task will be to overcome Sean Dyche’s side, who have improved since his arrival as manager in late January.
History favours Spurs in this head-to-head, with Everton only winning one of their last 20 Premier League games against the north London side (D9 L10) – that coming in a 1-0 away win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium back in September 2020. Overall, they’ve won 29 times against Everton in the competition; another club high.
Tottenham are unbeaten in their last nine league visits to Goodison Park, although six of those have ended in a draw including the last three in a row.
In order to end that run, Everton will have to do something they’ve struggled to do historically against Spurs in the Premier League: score a goal. Tottenham have kept more clean sheets against the Toffees in the competition (24), including one in each of their last three games versus them.
At the other end of the pitch, Spurs could complete a Premier League ‘first’ on Monday… should they score at least three goals. With 97 Premier League goals against Everton, they are just three away from reaching 100 goals against a single opponent in the competition for the first time.
Dyche has orchestrated two previous Premier League wins over Spurs – both at Burnley. The second of these came in his last game against them, with his Burnley side defeating Tottenham 1-0 at Turf Moor in February 2022 thanks to Ben Mee’s 71st-minute header past Hugo Lloris.
Tottenham 2-0 Everton: 15 October 2022 (Premier League)
Following Spurs’ 2-0 win over Everton in October, things were looking good for the north London club. They were third in the Premier League table, level with Man City and just a point off Arsenal at the top. Their 23-point tally from 10 games was their best start to a top-flight campaign since 1963-64.
Harry Kane opened the scoring from the penalty spot in his 400th Spurs appearance after being tripped by Jordan Pickford in the box. His 59th-minute spot-kick meant that he scored in a fifth successive Premier League appearance – still his best-ever run in the competition.
His penalty was his 30th scored in the Premier League, making him just the fourth player to score 30 or more penalties for a single club in the competition after Frank Lampard (41 for Chelsea), Alan Shearer (37 for Newcastle) and Steven Gerrard (32 for Liverpool).
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg sealed the win with just four minutes left, collecting Rodrigo Bentancur’s delivery before finding the far corner of the net via a deflection off Alex Iwobi.
This defeat left Everton – then managed by Lampard – on 10 points from 10 games.
Sean Dyche has turned Goodison Park into somewhat of a fortress for Everton since being appointed manager in January. The Toffees have won three of their four Premier League home games under Dyche, beating Arsenal, Leeds United and Brentford – all by a 1-0 scoreline. In fact, seven of Everton’s last nine home wins in the competition have seen the game finish 1-0.
Since the start of October, Spurs have only won one more Premier League game (10) that they have lost (nine), which is only one more defeat than the top three clubs – Arsenal, Man City and Man Utd, combined (10). In fact, they have lost the same number of Premier League matches over this period as relegation-threatened West Ham United (nine) and one more than another club down the bottom, Nottingham Forest (eight).
But, unlike the Boomtown Rats, Spurs do like Monday’s. They are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games on a Monday (W4 D1), with two of those wins coming against Everton, and one of those victories against Dyche’s Burnley.
Everton: Idrissa Gueye
Under Dyche, Everton won’t be renowned for being a possession-heavy team – that’s for sure. Since his first game on 4 February, they have averaged just 37.4% possession and never had more than their opponent in a single game.
That makes the ability to win the ball back from opponents crucial to Everton under their new manager. Idrissa Gueye is the best at doing that. Gueye has made the most tackles (30) and interceptions (15) under Dyche’s reign at Everton in the Premier League, while he’s also the most frequently in possession, making a team-high 228 successful passes in the competition since the former Burnley boss came in.
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane
Stellini will be relying on Spurs’ all-time top scorer Harry Kane to provide the spark on Monday. His record against Everton in the Premier League is outstanding, with 14 goals in 15 games at an average of a goal every 96 minutes against them. Only against Leicester City (18) has Kane scored more often in the competition.
Spurs have been more reliant on Kane’s goals than usual this season, with his 21 goals contributing 40.4% of their Premier League total. Their next highest Premier League scorer in 2022-23 is the out of sorts Son Heung-Min (six), while summer signing from Everton, Richarlison, is yet to score in 19 Premier League appearances for the club despite attempting 19 shots with an xG total of 2.2.
Everton vs Tottenham Prediction
Tottenham Hotspur are the favourites for this match according to the Opta supercomputer, with a 47.2% chance of picking up all three points in their first game in the post-Antonio Conte era.
Everton are desperate for all three points (perhaps even more so by the time this game is played on Monday) and the Opta supercomputer thinks they have a one-in-four chance of doing so.
Before a ball is kicked this weekend in the Premier League, Everton’s chance of relegation stands at 42.2% according to the supercomputer projections – that’s only below Southampton (77.5%), Bournemouth (56.0%) and Nottingham Forest (50.5%). This weekend see’s three games between teams in the bottom nine, so it may go a long was in shaping the relegation battle as we had towards the final hurdle.
Spurs are on the hunt for a top four place at the end of the season and therefore UEFA Champions League qualification. They are currently in fourth but having played more games than some rivals. As a result, their 23.5% chance of finishing in the top four is below that of Liverpool (29.3%) and Newcastle United (42.1%) but above Brighton & Hove Albion’s 13.7%.