Three Serie A sides, two Premier League, the Spaniards and Germans you’d expect, and the Portuguese club that’s having their cake and eating it too after making a big profit in the January window and refusing to allow that to end their European run. That’s the make-up of your 2022-23 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals.
Here are the Champions League predictions, rankings, chances of progressing, and a few deeper numbers to consider for the first legs of each tie.
Manchester City vs Bayern Munich
Opta Power Rankings: Manchester City 1st, Bayern Munich 2nd
First-leg win probability: Manchester City 54.9%, Bayern Munich 22.6%
Chances of reaching the semi-finals: Manchester City 58.2%, Bayern Munich 41.8%
Chances of winning the Champions League: Manchester City 28.2%, Bayern Munich 18.5%
One more number: 13
There are three players in the Champions League this season to have produced at least three goal-ending carries. You may think one is Erling Haaland given his sheer volume of goals, but all three play for Bayern Munich: Leroy Sané has four while Sadio Mané and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting each have three. Only five players in the competition have managed two, and four of those players play for the club formerly managed by Julian Nagelsmann.
Bayern unsurprisingly lead the competition with 41 shot-ending carries, and their 13 goal-ending carries are more than the other remaining seven clubs combined (12).
Whether that means anything new to Man City and Pep Guardiola as to how to defend a Bundesliga club now managed by Thomas Tuchel – whom Guardiola is rather familiar with along with names like Sané and Mané – remains to be seen, but there might be something to closing down a visiting attacker this week. Then again, after their 7-0 second-leg win over RB Leipzig to get to this stage, perhaps it’s Bayern who should be worried about defending.
Man City are our top-ranked team in the world and our favourites to win Europe’s crown, but the reality of this draw along with Chelsea having to face Champions League masters Real Madrid puts it very much in question as to whether the Premier League will have much representation in the UCL semi-finals. While that would be surprising given recent history, it’s perhaps not in the context of this season with Liverpool having a down year and current Premier League leaders Arsenal not qualifying for Europe’s top prize.
Not only are Manchester City the Opta supercomputer favourites to win the 2022-23 UCL, they are also the 9/4 favourites with bet365. Expect that price to crater should they win this first leg as the supercomputer predicts.
Benfica vs Internazionale
Opta Power Rankings: Benfica 18th, Internazionale 10th
First-leg win probability: Benfica 46.7%, Internazionale 26.8%
Chances of reaching the semi-finals: Benfica 47.8%, Internazionale 52.2%
Chances of winning the Champions League: Benfica 5.1%, Internazionale 7.5%
One more number: 18
If there are going to be two Italian sides in the semi-finals for the first time since sending three to that stage in 2002-03, it’s up to Inter Milan to get it done against Benfica because Napoli or Milan are assured to go out. Inter got here in the old school Italian manner by eliminating Porto on a 1-0 aggregate, and if Inter are going to take down another Portuguese side in the quarters, beating Benfica’s press would be a decent starting point for Simone Inzaghi’s men.
Four Champions League teams have produced more high turnovers than Benfica, and three of them are left in the competition, so at first glance it may seem Roger Schmidt’s side have been a middling team in that regard. Go deeper into the details and you see it’s a matter of efficiency. Benfica lead the Champions League in shot-ending high turnovers (18) and are tied with Napoli for the lead in goal-ending high turnovers with five. They’ve done that with just the seventh-most pressed sequences (110) behind even Barcelona and Red Bull Salzburg.
By the supercomputer’s estimation, this is the closest tie of the quarter-finals with it being little more than a coin flip in Inter’s advantage (52.2%).
If Benfica advance, having already topped a group featuring PSG and Juventus before eliminating Club Brugge on a 7-1 aggregate in the round of 16, they are officially this year’s Villarreal – but certainly a more proactive and entertaining version of last season’s surprise semi-finalists.
Do you agree with the Opta supercomputer and think Benfica can defeat Inter in the first leg? According to bet365, Benfica are 11/10 to win the first leg and 4/5 to progress to the semis.
Real Madrid vs Chelsea
Opta Power Rankings: Real Madrid 4th, Chelsea 22nd
First-leg win probability: Real Madrid 56.4%, Chelsea 20.1%
Chances of reaching the semi-finals: Real Madrid 67.8%, Chelsea 32.2%
Chances of winning the Champions League: Real Madrid 12.5%, Chelsea 1.9%
One more number: 16
Real Madrid are LaLiga’s lone quarter-final representation after Barcelona, Atlético Madrid and Sevilla all crashed out in the group stage with only Sevilla still alive in the Europa League. Real got past Liverpool comfortably thanks to a 5-2 win at Anfield in the first leg, while Chelsea are here after overturning a 1-0 first-leg deficit to Borussia Dortmund back in the Graham Potter era.
It’s very easy to rave about Vinícius Júnior or Karim Benzema or Luka Modrić in the knockout stages of a Champions League, particularly after the trio shredded Barcelona last week in their Copa del Rey semi-final second leg, but how about Federico Valverde? He finds himself in hot water after his weekend confrontation with Villarreal’s Álex Baena, but Valverde leads the Champions League in open-play chances created (16) this season, and that comes among a top 10 that includes Lionel Messi, Jack Grealish, Neymar, Riyad Mahrez and Bernardo Silva.
It should be said that 15 of those 16 came in the group stages, but he played 90 minutes in each match against Liverpool in the last 16 – once in the midfield and once on the wing – and seems to have Carlo Ancelotti’s trust. He’s 24, and his value has perhaps never been higher despite it feeling like he’s been at the Bernabéu for a decade and went through some post-World Cup struggles. This year is different for him with Casemiro gone from the Real Madrid midfield that for so long was the Modrić, Toni Kroos and Casemiro show.
In all competitions, Valverde has 16 goal involvements (12 goals, four assists) and his finishes have come from 6.41 expected goals. He’s played more minutes than ever this season while joining the ranks of Los Blancos’ top scorers, and he’s created twice the open-play chances in all competitions (65) in 44 matches than he did last season with 32 in 46.
This tie consists of two teams that have combined to win seven of the last 11 Champions League titles, so there’s no shortage of experience at the sharp end of Europe’s most premier club competition. History has told us never to bet against Real Madrid in a knockout competition and they’re currently priced at 13/2 with bet365 to win outright. Only Milan (20/1) are longer than Chelsea (14/1) to lift the trophy in June.
Milan vs Napoli
Opta Power rankings: Milan 15th, Napoli 3rd
First-leg win probability: Milan 33.9%, Napoli 38.1%
Chances of reaching the semi-finals: Milan 32.8%, Napoli 67.2%
Chances of winning the Champions League: Milan 5.1%, Napoli 21.1%
One more number: 74
AC Milan have cared about having the ball so little in this competition that they probably just assume the opposition also put it in the back of their own net to save them the trouble. It worked out just fine against Tottenham after scoring seven minutes into the first leg and holding on for a 1-0 aggregate with a mere 0.91 xG conceded.
Stefano Pioli’s men are now on a run of six straight UCL matches with under 50% possession. Their 74 sequences completing 10 or more open-play passes through eight matches ranks 20th in the competition despite them having played two more games than some of those teams and sits contentedly behind Celtic and Shakhtar Donetsk. The other seven remaining sides average 132.9 with Man City’s 206 leading the way. In their 4-0 win over Napoli on 2 April, Milan totaled 11 sequences on which they completed at 10 or more passes, but they’ve had five or fewer in three of their UCL matches.
Prior to Luciano Spalletti’s club’s loss to Milan, Napoli were our favourites to with the Champions League, but the supercomputer acted swiftly and decisively after the Serie A title holders dismantled their Scudetto heirs. That four-goal defeat may raise some questions about their defence heading into the quarters, and they’re certainly seen as the attacking side of the remaining three Serie A clubs, but let’s remember they’ve gotten to this stage having conceded six goals in eight games after navigating a group with proactive attacking sides Liverpool and Ajax, then recording consecutive clean sheets in their 5-0 aggregate over Eintracht Frankfurt.
Napoli may be trending down after the loss but still have the second highest likelihood of the last eight teams to reach the semi-finals at 67.2% – only slightly lower than Real Madrid’s 67.8%. Can Milan shock Napoli again, just like in the thrashing earlier this month? Napoli striker Victor Osimhen is an injury doubt for this game which could make the 19/10 on Milan to win the first leg at the San Siro an attractive price, while if you fancy another rout in their favour, they are 50/1 to win 4-0 again.
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