We look ahead to the first leg of this UEFA Champions League quarter final at the Estádio da Luz, Lisbon with our Benfica vs Inter Milan prediction and preview.
Benfica vs Inter Milan: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer makes Benfica the favourites to win this UCL match against Inter Milan, at 45.9%.
- Benfica’s unbeaten 20-game home run in 2022-23 came to an end this weekend, as they lost to FC Porto.
- Inter Milan have never lost against Benfica in three previous meetings, including the 1965 European Cup final.
- Bet365 have a new account offer ahead of this UCL tie.
Match Preview
Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders Benfica will come up against Serie A giants Internazionale in this match, hoping to end a winless sequence against them. Benfica have not won any of their previous three competitive games against Inter, losing the 1965 European Cup final against them before losing over two legs (one draw, one loss) in the 2003-04 UEFA Cup round of 16 stage.
Internazionale come into this tie having knocked out another of Portugal’s ‘big three’ in the last round. Simone Inzaghi’s side won 1-0 on aggregate across both legs of their last 16 tie with FC Porto.
Benfica have already defeated a Serie A club on two occasions already in the UEFA Champions League this season, with home and away victories versus Juventus in the group stage. Prior to the 2022-23 campaign, they had only won two of 11 matches against Italian sides in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (D2 L7).
Last Meeting
Internazionale 4-3 Benfica: 25 March 2004 (UEFA Cup)
These two clubs haven’t met in a competitive fixture for 19 years now, with the last encounter coming in a seven-goal thriller back in March 2004. After drawing the first leg of their UEFA Cup last 16 tie 0-0 in Lisbon, the two sides met again just two weeks later at the San Siro for a chance to make the quarter-finals.
Benfica took the lead through Portuguese striker Nuno Gomes, before Obafemi Martins equalised on the stroke of half-time. Goals from Alvaro Recoba, Christian Vieri and another from Martins saw Inter race into a 4-1 lead before Gomes added a second and Tiago made it 4-3 to set up a nervy finish for the Italian giants. Inter hung on and reached the quarter-finals, where they eventually lost to Marseille 2-0 on aggregate.
The only previous meeting between these clubs in the UEFA Champions League/European Cup came in the 1965 final. Internazionale picked up their second European Cup crown after winning the 1963-94 competition with a 3-1 win over Real Madrid.
The 1965 final saw Inter have home advantage, with the final being played at the San Siro, Milan. They defeated Benfica – winners in both 1960-61 and 1961-62 – 1-0 thanks to a first-half goal from Brazilian Jair da Costa.
Recent Form
Benfica come into this game on the back of their first defeat of 2023 (excluding penalty shootouts). The Eagles lost 2-1 at home to rivals FC Porto on Friday night, despite leading 1-0 via a Diogo Costa own goal. Second-half strikes from Porto pair Mateus Uribe and Mehdi Taremi condemned Benfica to their first loss in league action since 30 December away at SC Braga (3-0).
This was their first competitive home defeat of the season after 20 games unbeaten there, while it was their first loss at Estádio da Luz since losing to Porto back in May 2022, also by a single goal (1-0). Benfica did score in Saturday’s defeat, however, meaning that they have now netted in 21 successive home games in all competitions.
Inter are on a very poor run of form coming into this clash, having failed to win any of their last six matches (D3 L3) and winning just one of their last eight games across all competitions (W1 D3 L4). They have scored just two goals in their last five games – one of those a penalty via Romelu Lukaku – and their last two matches have both ended 1-1. Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Salernitana in Serie A saw them concede an injury-time equaliser after they’d led for the majority of the game following Robin Gosens’ sixth-minute opener. This is Inter’s worst run of form since February 2018 in all competitions, back then going 10 games without a win.
Given Inter’s barren run in front of goal, Benfica to win to nil – currently priced at 12/5 with bet365 – might be a good way to extract a little more value from the home team.
Inter Milan made it through the UCL group stages after finishing second in Group C behind Bayern Munich but ahead of Barcelona and Viktoria Plzeň. The Serie A side then set up this quarter-final tie against Benfica by defeating FC Porto in the last 16, winning 1-0 in the first leg at home before hanging on in Portugal and seeing out a goalless draw to send them through to the last eight.
Internazionale are unbeaten in their last three games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (W2 D1), while they haven’t conceded a goal in any of those. The Nerazzurri could keep four consecutive clean sheets in the knockout stages of the competition for the first time.
Benfica stunned many by topping Group H ahead of Ligue 1 giants Paris Saint-Germain on the tiebreaker of away goals scored. They also finished ahead of Serie A side Juventus and Israeli team Maccabi Haifa in the standings. They then defeated Belgian side Club Brugge 7-1 on aggregate in the last 16 – including an emphatic 5-1 home win in the second leg – to set up this quarter-final tie.
Roger Schmidt’s side are one of only three teams to still be unbeaten in the 2022-23 UCL alongside Bayern Munich and Man City, while only Napoli (25) have scored more goals than they have (23) in the competition this season.
Benfica are looking to record five consecutive victories in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League for the first time since the 1989-90 campaign, when they won six in a row in route to reaching the final that season (lost 1-0 vs. Milan).
Key Players
Benfica: Gonçalo Ramos
Ramos looks set to be the next player to come off the long line of excellent talents produced by SL Benfica, with their top scorer on fine form in 2022-23.
The 21-year-old striker has scored 25 goals across all competitions this season so far, with 17 of those coming in league competition – none of which have come from the penalty spot. Only team-mate João Mário has as many goals in the Primeira Liga in 2022-23, while seven of his strikes have come from penalties.
One aspect of his game that makes Ramos so dangerous to opposition defences is his ability to ghost into exceptional scoring positions. Across the top 10 ranked European leagues in 2022-23, no player to have played at least 1,000 minutes has a higher non-penalty xG per 90 rate than he does in league action (0.87).
Ramos has proved he can do it on the biggest stage, too. He’s scored three times in the UCL this season, including a brace in the last round versus Club Brugge, while who can forget his 2022 FIFA World Cup hat-trick for Portugal versus Switzerland in the last 16? Ramos became the first player to score a hat-trick on his first World Cup start since Miroslav Klose in 2002, while he was the youngest player to score a treble in the competition (21y 169d) since Flórián Albert (20y 261d) for Hungary in 1962.
Gonçalo Ramos has scored 10 goals in his last 13 competitive appearances for Benfica, including two in his last UEFA Champions League appearance. Think he will score again? He’s 15/8 to do just that with bet365.
Internazionale: Lautaro Martínez
Lautaro Martínez is Inter’s top scorer across all competitions in 2022-23 with 17 goals, while he’s also a big threat to opponents as a creative spark for the Serie A club – only Nicolò Barella (54) has created more open-play chances across all competitions this season than the 2022 World Cup-winning Argentine (46).
Martínez’s recent form has been below-par, however. He’s been left on the bench in Inter’s last two league matches, while he’s only scored once and assisted no goals across his last nine competitive appearances for the club (658 minutes).
Seven of Lautaro Martínez’s eight goals for Internazionale in the UEFA Champions League have been scored away from home – if he finds the net in this match, he would equal Sandro Mazzola and fellow Argentinean Hernán Crespo (eight) as the joint-top scorers for the club away from home in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.
Benfica vs Inter Milan Prediction
Benfica are tipped to take a first-leg advantage to the San Siro in the second leg with a victory in this match. The Opta supercomputer rates their chances at 45.9%, above the Inter Milan prediction of 27.5%. A draw would be a decent result for Inter, and the supercomputer projects that there is a 27.6% chance of that occurring on Tuesday night in Lisbon.
Manchester City are the overall favourites to win the entire 2022-23 UEFA Champions League with the Opta supercomputer. Pep Guardiola’s side are being given a 28.2% chance, ahead of Serie A champions elect Napoli (21.1%) and City’s quarter-final opponents Bayern Munich (18.5%).
The outsiders are Premier League side Chelsea, who are given the lowest chance of winning the UCL at 1.9%, while their quarter-final opponents and reigning champions Real Madrid are fourth favourites at 12.5%.
Italian rivals Internazionale (7.5%) and AC Milan (5.1%) are being given an outside chance of winning the trophy, while Portuguese giants Benfica are given a 5.1% chance of lifting the trophy in the Atatürk Olympic Stadium, Istanbul on 10 June according to the Opta supercomputer projections.
Who do you think will win the UEFA Champions League in 2022-23? All the latest odds are here.
Benfica vs Inter Milan UCL Squads
Benfica: Samuel Soares, Leo Kokubo*, André Gomes*, Odysseas Vlachodimos, Gilberto, Alejandro Grimaldo, Lucas Verissimo, Alexander Bah, Mihailo Ristić, Nicolás Otamendi (suspended), Rafael Rodrigues*, António Silva*, Morato*, Fredrik Aursnes, João Mário, Chiquinho, Florentino, Cher N’Dour*, Zan Jevsenak*,
João Neves*, David Neres, Gonçalo Guedes, Casper Tengstedt, Andreas Schjelderup, Rafa Silva, Petar Musa, Gerson Sousa*, Henrique Pereira*, Pedro Santos*, Gonçalo Ramos*, Luis Semedo*, Julian Draxler, Diego Moreira*.
Internazionale: Samir Handanovič, Alex Cordaz, André Onana, Nikolaos Botis*, Denzel Dumfries, Stefan de Vrij, Raoul Bellanova, Francesco Acerbi, Federico Dimarco, Danilo D’Ambrosio, Matteo Darmian, Milan Škriniar, Mattia Zanotti*, Alessandro Fontanarosa*, Alessandro Bastoni, Roberto Gagliardini, Robin Gosens, Kristjan Asllani, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Nicolò Barella, Valentin Carboni*, Marcelo Brozović, Edin Džeko, Lautaro Martínez, Joaquín Correa, Romelu Lukaku.
*Player List B
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