The German giants have it all to do in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final at the Allianz Arena. Here’s our Bayern Munich vs Man City prediction and Opta preview.

Bayern Munich vs Man City: The Quick Hits

  • Manchester City the slight favourites to beat Bayern Munich according to the Opta supercomputer, with a 40.0% chance of winning the second leg.
  • Bayern have only lost both legs of a UCL knockout-stage tie on two occasions, so don’t rule out their 35.9% chance of success on home soil, even if they have just a 4.1% chance of advancing into the semi-final.
  • But can they become just the fifth team to progress from a two-legged UEFA Champions League knockout tie after losing by three or more goals in the first leg?
  • Bet365 have a new account offer ahead of this UCL tie. 

Match Preview

When the top two sides in the Opta Power Rankings were drawn out of the hat for a UEFA Champions League showdown, we all expected a close tussle between two of the sports’ powerhouses.

Instead, a simply stunning performance from Pep Guardiola’s side has made the Manchester City fanbase dare to dream of European success once again, taking a three-goal advantage into the second leg at the Allianz Arena.

But this is going to be far from a dead rubber of a match with Bayern Munich perfect at home in the UCL this season, winning all four contests without conceding a goal and netting 11 of their own in the process. The only issue for them is City haven’t been defeated in away matches in the competition this season (W1 D3).

And when it comes to taking on German opposition in the UEFA Champions League, City have only lost one of their last 20 such matches (W16 D3) and are unbeaten in their nine games against Bundesliga opponents in the knockout stages (W8 D1).

If there’s one glimmer of hope for Bayern, as they look to become just the fifth team to progress from a two-legged UCL knockout tie after losing by three or more goals in the first leg, it’s that they’ve only lost both legs of such a knockout stage tie on two occasions, both coming against Real Madrid (2013-14 semi-finals and 2016-17 quarter-finals) – the first of which was when Pep Guardiola was at the helm.

Previous Meeting

Manchester City 3-0 Bayern Munich: 11 April 2023 (UEFA Champions League)

Manchester 3-0 Bayern Munich - xG Shot Map

It was a horror show for Bayern at the Etihad Stadium last week, resulting in their joint-biggest margin of defeat against an English side in all European competitions, matching a 3-0 loss against Liverpool in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in March 1971.

Rodri’s first-half blast set Manchester City on their way, his first ever goal in the UEFA Champions League coming in his 44th appearance. The Spaniard has now seen 44% of his goals in all competitions for the Cityzens come from outside the box (7/16).

Bernardo Silva doubled their advantage with 20 minutes to play before, who else, but Erling Haaland completed the rout with his 45th of the season in all competitions, setting the record for the most ever by a Premier League player in a single season.

And the reality is, it could have been more with City having nine shots on target in the match, the most Bayern Munich have faced in a UEFA Champions League knockout game since the second leg of their 2016-17 quarter-final tie against Real Madrid (11). Thomas Tuchel become just the third manager to lose their first UEFA Champions League game in charge of the club, after Giovanni Trapattoni (September 1994) and Ottmar Hitzfield (September 1998).

On the opposite side of the coin, the victory was Pep Guardiola’s 99th in the UEFA Champions League. Victory on Wednesday will make him just the third manager to reach 100 wins in the competition, alongside Carlo Ancelotti (105, not including one awarded win with Milan) and Alex Ferguson (100). He will also reach the century mark in just 158 games, far quicker than both Ancelotti (180) and Ferguson (184) and a City win is 13/10 with Bet365.

Manchester City 3-0 Bayern Munich - xG Race Chart

Recent Form

If Thomas Tuchel had hoped his charges would be able to put that disappointment behind them against lowly Hoffenheim at the weekend, then he was made to think again.

Benjamin Pavard had put Bayern on their way to success with the opener, making the most of Kingsley Coman’s blocked shot, but that was cancelled out in the second half by an Andrej Kramaric free kick past Yann Sommer. The hosts did have more chances to win from the likes of Serge Gnabry, who was playing in the striker role with Sadio Mane suspended for the match following a post-match punch-up with Leroy Sane after the Manchester City defeat.

The only blessing for Tuchel was that title rivals Borussia Dortmund failed to move level on points at the top of the Bundesliga after conceding a 97th-minute equaliser against Stuttgart moments before Giovanni Reyna had scored what they had hoped would be an injury-time winner of his own as Germany looks set for one of the tightest title races in years.

Bayern Munich made it into the 2022-23 UCL quarter-finals after winning arguably the toughest group of all this season – Group C – ahead of Inter Milan, Barcelona and Viktoria Plzen. And didn’t get much easier for them in the first knockout round stage either, defeating PSG 3-0 on aggregate in the round of 16 after winning 1-0 away and 2-0 at home.

Meanwhile, Manchester City’s march towards a potential fourth Premier League title continued with a comfortable 3-1 victory over Leicester City, their 10th win in a row in all competitions.

John Stones put the hosts on their way against the relegation-threatened Foxes after just five minutes before a first-half double from Haaland saw him substituted at half-time. The Norwegian had now netted 32 goals in the Premier League this season, just two off the all-time record held by Alan Shearer (34 in 1994-95) and Andrew Cole (34 in 1993-94).

The victory was all-the-more important as league leaders Arsenal dropped points in a 2-2 draw with West Ham, leaving the Gunners just four points clear at the summit. Our supercomputer now makes City the 65.6% favourites to go on and claim the title as England looks set for a thrilling end to the season, with a historic treble not off the cards for City either, with an FA Cup clash with Sheffield United awaiting at the weekend.

Manchester City are unbeaten in the UEFA Champions League so far this season, winning six and drawing three of their nine matches. They topped Group G ahead of Borussia Dortmund, Sevilla and FC Copenhagen, before defeating another Bundesliga club – RB Leipzig, 8-1 on aggregate in the round of 16.

Players to Watch

Bayern Munich: Leroy Sane

If there’s a fairy tale story to be made here, don’t be surprised if former Manchester City star Leroy Sane is at the centre of it.

Despite his side’s failure to score a goal in the first leg, Sane was directly involved in eight of Bayern’s 12 shots in the first leg at the Etihad (five shots and three chances created). But arguably his greatest involvement in the tie came in the dressing room where his and Sadio Mane’s clash on the field continued, leaving Sane sporting a swollen upper lip during their draw with Hoffenheim at the weekend.

Leroy Sane xG Shot Map - UEFA Champions League 2021-2023

Mane should be back alongside Sane in the line-ups for the second leg following his suspension, but it’s the German who’s had the greatest influence on Munich in the UCL since the start of last season – his combined goals (10) and assists (7) is more than any other Bayern player (17). Will he come back to haunt the club he left in 2020? Bet365 are offering 22/1 on Sane to score at anytime and Bayern Munich to qualify for the semi-finals.

Manchester City: Ederson and his defence

It would be easy to pick Erling Haaland here and his 11 UEFA Champions League goals in just seven appearances this season, just one shy of the record for goals scored for a Premier League team in a single season (Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2002-03 for Man Utd, 12).

And as much as his scoring is key for City, keeping them out is going to be even more important on Wednesday.

City’s backline has been in fine form in Europe. They’ve kept six clean sheets in their nine UEFA Champions League matches this season and have won their last two games in the competition by an aggregate score of 10-0. A third clean sheet in succession is available at 3/1 on Bet365.

Manchester City Goals Conceded in 2022-23 UEFA Champions League

Overall, they’ve conceded just three goals in the UCL this campaign, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 5.6. Bayern have exceeded their own xG tally this campaign (21 goals scored, 17.3 xG) so have the threat that could cause City some problems.

Bayern Munich vs Man City Prediction

Bayern Munich vs Man City Prediction

Not only are Manchester City heavily tipped to advance into the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League, but our supercomputer makes them the slightest of favourites to emerge victorious in the second leg as well. They are given a 40.0% chance of collecting the win at the Allianz Arena, with Bayern Munich’s chances of victory in the game at 35.9%.

If the Bavarians do pull off the victory, the supercomputer still doesn’t give them much chance of overturning the three-goal deficit and advancing into the next round with just a 4.08% chance of reaching the final four, the least of any side left in the competition below Chelsea (9.9%) and Benfica (7.5%).

For Manchester City, they remain our overwhelming favourites to go on and lift a maiden UEFA Champions League title, being given a 44.8% chance of doing so, well clear of nearest rivals Real Madrid (16.8%) and the Serie A trio of Inter Milan (14.5%), Napoli (12.0%) and AC Milan (9.4%). You can get Man City at 10/11 to go on and win the UCL on Bet365.

Bayern Munich vs Man City UCL Squads

Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Sven Ulreich, Yann Sommer, Johannes Schenk*, Tom Hülsmann*, Dayot Upamecano, Matthijs de Ligt, Benjamin Pavard, Bouna Sarr, Lucas Hernández, João Cancelo, Daley Blind, Yusuf Kabadayi*, Noussair Mazraoui, Josip Stanišić, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Leroy Sané, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Paul Wanner, Alphonso Davies, Ryan Gravenberch, Jamal Musiala, Arijon Ibrahimovic*, Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, Sadio Mané, Thomas Müller, Mathys Tel.

Manchester City: Stefan Ortega, Ederson, Scott Carson, Kyle Walker, Rúben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Aymeric Laporte, Sergio Gómez, Manuel Akanji, Rico Lewis*, Kalvin Phillips, İlkay Gündoğan, Jack Grealish, Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Máximo Perrone, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer*, Erling Haaland, Julián Álvarez.

*Player List B

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