We preview Monday night’s Premier League clash between Brentford and Fulham, including the supercomputer’s pre-match prediction for this game at the Gtech Community Stadium.
Brentford vs Fulham: The Quick Hits
- Brentford likely to extend unbeaten Premier League to 12 games.
- The Bees given a 46.2% chance of winning on Monday night.
- Fulham’s quest for a record-breaking sixth away win of the season to go on.
Brentford are enjoying a remarkable season under Thomas Frank. The Bees currently sit in ninth place in the Premier League standings and that’s despite playing fewer games than many of those teams around them.
Win their two games in hand and they could jump up to seventh and could leapfrog their opponents on Monday night, Fulham, in the process.
Travelling to Brentford hasn’t been the happiest of trips for the Cottagers in recent times. Brentford have got the better of them in four of their last five home matches, with Fulham losing 1-0 the last time they played the Bees away from home in league competition in December 2019 in the Championship.
While historically speaking the Monday-night cauldron hasn’t always been a recipe for success for Fulham, they’ve recently improved their record under the lights. After winning just one of 17 Premier League away games on a Monday between 2001-02 and 2018-19 (D5 L11), Fulham have won each of their last two (2-1 at Leicester in November 2020, 3-0 at Crystal Palace this season).
One area where both these teams have excelled so far this season is from set pieces. The west London pair have scored a league-high 15 goals from such situations so far, and no side has more penalties than the Bees (five). In both teams’ cases, their success from corners in particular has come as a result of high efficiency. Although these two sides don’t get the volume of corners the more dominant sides in England do, Marco Silva’s have created a chance from 26% of their corner deliveries, a league-high, while Brentford have done so from 22% of theirs – good enough for fourth best.
Expect to see both sides threaten in such situations. Particularly, Ivan Toney, who has been the main beneficiary of Brentford’s set-piece threat. He’s statistically the most common receiver from Brentford’s set-pieces and no player has scored more than his four penalties this season.
Such is the Bees’ reliance on the English striker that since their promotion to the Premier League in 2021, Ivan Toney has scored 31% of Brentford’s goals (26/85), the highest ratio of any player for a team to have played across both campaigns.
In terms of a goal threat from open play, there’s only one player to watch from the away side. Manor Solomon has scored in each of his last three Premier League games, all as a substitute. Only one player – Jamie Vardy from November 2018 to October 2020 – has ever scored in four consecutive substitute appearances in the Premier League, while no player has ever done so in an uninterrupted run of games for a club in the competition. The Israeli also scored a delightful, curled effort against Leeds in midweek to send Fulham through to the FA Cup quarter-finals to face Manchester United.
Fulham 3-2 Brentford: 20 August 2022 (Premier League)
Fulham won the reverse fixture against Brentford 3-2 in August in an end-to-end thriller. They’ve only ever done a Premier League double over three London sides – Charlton in 2002-03, Tottenham in 2003-04 and QPR in 2011-12. Monday night is the chance to add Brentford to that list.
Bobby De Cordova-Reid set the tone after just 44 seconds, bundling in a scrappy goal to put Fulham ahead. It was the first time the Cottagers had scored in the opening minute of a Premier League game since August 2007, when David Healy did so against Arsenal.
After 20 minutes it was 2-0, João Palhinha powering in a header from an Andreas Pereira corner. By striking twice that early, it was the first time Fulham had scored twice in the opening 20 minutes of a Premier League game for the first time since March 2012, when they did so in a 2-1 home win over Norwich City.
Brentford answered back through a goal from a corner of their own. Christian Nørgaard displayed excellent technique to volley a corner from fellow Dane, Mathias Jensen.
Ivan Toney drew the sides level, before Aleksandar Mitrovic’s dramatic last-minute header took all three points for the home side. At the time it was Mitrovic’s third goal of the season, and in reaching that tally he’d already equalled his total from his previous season in the competition (three in 27 appearances in 2020-21).
The Serb is now Fulham’s top scorer with 11 goals to his name, laying to rest any claims that he’s unable to translate his Championship form to the top-flight.
Brentford are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League games (W5 D6), the longest current run in the competition, and a streak that has been highlighted by impressive wins over Liverpool (3-1) and draws to Tottenham (2-2) and league-leaders Arsenal (1-1).
They’re four points ahead of Chelsea in 10th and have scored more goals than Newcastle. How do you like that?
Silva’s side come into this game having won four of their last five in all competitions, the only blemish of that record a 1-1 home draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers last time out in the league. Overall, Fulham have won 11 Premier League games this season, last winning more in 2011-12 (14). They’ve also won five away games this term, their joint-most in a single Premier League campaign (also 2003-04).
Brentford vs Fulham Prediction
According to the supercomputer, Brentford are set to extend their unbeaten run to 12 games league matches. The Bees are favourites in this one, given a 46.2% of taking all the points on Monday night.
Fulham are the outsiders in this London derby, the supercomputer reckoning they win this fixture one out of every four occasions. That might sound fairly high, but only four other away sides (Bournemouth, Newcastle, Leeds United and Manchester United) have a lower chance of winning away from home this matchweek.
The draw (28.3%) is slightly more likely than a Fulham victory.
In terms of lineup news, Pontus Jansson, Frank Onyeka and Thomas Strakosha are still doubts for the Bees, while Fulham will definitely miss Palhinha who is suspended.
Looking ahead to the rest of the season, the supercomputer predicts both these sides will secure a top-half finish, above Chelsea in 10th and below Brighton in seventh.