Champions League Predictions: The 2022-23 Knockouts
Who will win the UCL in 2022-23? We look at the Opta supercomputer’s UEFA Champions League predictions ahead of the last 16 ties.
Bayern Munich are now the favourites for the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League title according to the Opta supercomputer, with the Bundesliga giants being given a 25.9% chance of lifting the trophy on 10 June 2023 at the Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul.
Back in September before a ball was kicked in the competition, Bayern were given just a 9.6% chance of winning the competition. However, as the only side to win all six of their group stage matches and as the team currently at the top of the Bundesliga table with just one defeat in 20 games, Bayern now look like the team to beat.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side have one of the hardest ties in the round of 16, coming up against French club Paris Saint-Germain over two legs. The Ligue 1 leaders may have the likes of Neymar, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé at their disposal, but they are used to UCL heartache, having never won the competition in 14 previous attempts. One of those attempts saw them lose in the 2019-20 final to Bayern Munich.
Largely due to having to play the Germans in the last 16, PSG’s chances of winning the 2022-23 UCL stand at just 3.6% – the eighth-highest probability of the 16 sides remaining in the competition, although this would dramatically increase should they pass the Bayern hurdle.
Manchester City are another club who are yet to win the UEFA Champions League, despite reaching the final in 2021, where they lost to fellow Premier League club Chelsea. Pep Guardiola’s side are rated at 20.6% likely to win the UCL this season but must progress past RB Leipzig in this round to stand any chance of doing so.
Reigning champions Real Madrid are rated as fourth favourites to win their 15th UEFA Champions League/European Cup crown (6.8%), while Serie A runaway leaders Napoli are above them in third at 10.9%. The Italians were the highest scoring club in the 2022-23 group stage, with 20 goals in their six matches.
Other teams who’ve got a higher chance of winning the UCL this season than PSG are Liverpool (6.1%), Internazionale (5.2%) and Borussia Dortmund (4.2%), while 2020-21 winners Chelsea have struggled under new boss Graham Potter and are given just a 3.4% chance of winning.
If you fancy a real outsider, then Eintracht Frankfurt (1.0%) and Club Brugge will be your best picks. Both clubs were given the smallest chance of progressing out of their respective group stages (Club Brugge at 14.1% and Eintracht Frankfurt at 28.8%), so they’ve already taken out more-fancied teams from the competition.
The team with the third-lowest chance of UCL glory are reigning Serie A champions Milan, whose recent poor form has seen their chances of lifting their first Champions League trophy since 2007 fall to a lowly 1.6%.
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