Premier League Predictions | The Analyst
Premier League Predictions

Premier League Predictions

With the help of our trusty AI-powered supercomputer, we give Premier League predictions across the matches in each gameweek.

Matchweek 21

Premier League Predictions: MD21 Quick Hits

Home Wins: Man City and Arsenal to carry on their battle with three points apiece on Sunday.
Away Wins: Spurs to win a London derby and Aston Villa to carry on their great form under Emery.
Machine long shot: Leicester to shock Brighton and Crystal Palace to disrupt Newcastle’s flow.

Cor blimey. The Premier League is really heating up at both ends of the table now, isn’t it.

Manchester City’s comeback win over Spurs last night took them to within five points of Arsenal at the top, while Manchester United’s nine-game winning run across all competitions came to an end at Crystal Palace on Wednesday.

Matchweek 21 has some huge clashes that’ll have consequences at both the top and the bottom of the standings.

Our supercomputer is using the day of rest between those two midweek fixtures and the full MD21 action across the weekend to churn out the much-anticipated predictions for the upcoming 10 games. Fear not supercomputer, you’ll have a full week after Monday, with the FA Cup fourth round taking place across next weekend.

Matchweek 21 Premier League Predictions

Most Premier League clubs have now reached the halfway stage of their campaigns, but much later than usual in the calendar thanks to the break for the World Cup. One team who haven’t yet hit the halfway mark, but will do so this weekend, are league leaders Arsenal.

The Gunners face another big test of their title credentials with a Sunday mega-clash at home to in-form Manchester United.

Since the final matchweek before the World Cup, across 12-13 November, where Man Utd enjoyed a last-minute win over Fulham at Craven Cottage, they are the only team to have won more Premier League points (16) than Arsenal (13), albeit having played a game more.

Arsenal’s only Premier League defeat in 2022-23 came against Man Utd at Old Trafford in September (3-1). Should United win this game, it’ll be their first league double over the Gunners since 2017-18 under José Mourinho, while it would also see them beat a team that were top of the league on the day of the game on two occasions in one season since they beat Newcastle home and away in 1995-96.

So, what does the supercomputer think will happen? It’ll be more joy for Mikel Arteta, based on its prediction of this encounter, with Arsenal having a 44.1% chance of winning compared to 27.9% chance of an away win for Erik ten Hag’s Man United.

Back in August, you’d be forgiven for thinking Liverpool versus Chelsea in January would be a fixture that would go some way to determining the destination of the Premier League 2022-23 title. As it is, this is a battle between ninth and 10th place.

This will be Jürgen Klopp’s 1,000th competitive game as a manager, so he’ll be looking to mark the occasion with a win. That’s something Liverpool haven’t done so far in the Premier League in 2023, with back-to-back defeats against Brentford and Brighton. The supercomputer doesn’t think they will suffer a third defeat in a row this weekend (Chelsea’s chance of victory is just 21.6%) but if its predictions are wrong, then they’ll lose their first three league games in a calendar year for the first time since 1953.

New signing Mykhailo Mudryk could provide Chelsea manager Graham Potter with a much-needed boost, but none of the previous eight Ukrainians to play in the Premier League have scored on their debut (nine, if you were wanting to include Andrei Kanchelskis in this count). Then again, none of those players cost £62m, although Andriy Shevchenko came close.

Manchester City got over their mini-blip with a 4-2 win over Spurs on Thursday evening, although they did it the hard way after coming from two goals down at half-time. They shouldn’t have as much drama dispatching Wolves on Sunday, with the predictor giving them the highest chance of victory (70.2%) over this matchweek.

Erling Haaland’s three-game goalless run came to an end with his header past Hugo Lloris at the Etihad Stadium, and the Norwegian is now on 28 competitive goals for 2022-23. The record for a Premier League player in a single season (44) is just 16 goals away and while the supercomputer doesn’t offer calculations on the likelihood of competitive scoring records by players, when questioned on the chances, a matrix-style word waterfall suddenly formed a thumbs up on screen. Creepy.

Newcastle are having a brilliant season so far, with Eddie Howe’s side currently on a 14-game unbeaten run in the Premier League (W9 D5). They’ve never gone 15 without a defeat in their entire top-flight history, so Crystal Palace stand between them and a club record.

It’s in defence where they have been most impressive. Newcastle have conceded fewer goals (11) and kept more clean sheets (11) than any other Premier League side this season. They’ve also kept a clean sheet in their last five games – their longest ever run in top-flight history – while their 11 goals conceded is their fewest after 19 games in any top-flight campaign.

The supercomputer thinks this will be an extremely tight affair, with just 0.3% separating Newcastle’s chance of victory (35.2%) and a home win for Palace (34.9%). A draw feels like the most likely outcome, but that would still be enough for the Magpies to create club history.

Not many people would have had both Everton and West Ham in the relegation zone at the midway point of this Premier League season, but that’s the reality ahead of a monumental six-pointer on Saturday afternoon at the London Stadium.

David Moyes and Frank Lampard will be nervous about another defeat, especially with a break in Premier League action coming up next weekend, and the possibility of a loss sending them to the bottom of the table.

The last time that these two teams met when both in the relegation zone of the Premier League was back in February 1995, as they played out a 2-2 draw at Upton Park. The chance of a draw in this game is rated at 29.2% by the supercomputer, which is higher than the possibility of an Everton away win (26.6%). These are nervous times for Lampard and his Toffees.

Successive victories against Southampton and Leicester City have seen Nottingham Forest climb out of the bottom three and five points above the relegation zone. They’ll have a massive chance to separate themselves and the trio at the bottom even further on Saturday, when they face one of them – Bournemouth.

The prediction doesn’t fall in their favour, however, with the supercomputer rating their chances of an away win at just 28.7%. Bournemouth will see this as a great opportunity to move up in the table, considering Everton and West Ham play one another at the same time, so the supercomputer’s faith in them will provide a timely confidence boost.

We’ll see if the supercomputer is right, won’t we.

Matchweek 20

Premier League Predictions: MD20 Quick Hits

Home Wins: Brentford to beat Bournemouth & Graham Potter to finally have some joy at Chelsea in their home meeting with Palace.
Away Wins: Manchester City to beat United and Leicester to raid the Forest.
Machine long shot: Not a long shot based on the supercomputer, but Spurs winning at home to league leaders Arsenal will surprise many.

Our supercomputer enjoyed a week away catching some winter sun last week. The third round of the FA Cup gave it the ideal chance to unwind away from the Premier League season, recalibrate and get ready for a whopper of a matchweek in the English top-flight. We’re treated to not only one, but two huge derby matches in the Premier League over the weekend: the Manchester derby on Saturday and the North London derby on Sunday.

Most Successful English League Clubs

All four clubs are placed in the top five most successful clubs in Premier League history based on win ratio, with Manchester United’s 48% the highest of any club since the English Football League began in 1888.

Unfortunately, the supercomputer doesn’t factor in Ernest Mangnall’s record versus Notts County in 1907, so that doesn’t help United’s chances of victory in its calculations for Saturday afternoon.

The Red Devils are being given just a 20.2% chance of victory in the derby, this despite hosting City at Old Trafford. In fact, only Leicester City (54.7% at Nottingham Forest) are being given a bigger chance of winning away from home in this Premier League matchweek than Pep Guardiola’s Man City side.

Premier League Predictions - Gameweek 20

True, Manchester United are on an eight-match winning streak in all competitions, but lest we forget that the quality of their opponents in those eight games are not at the level of this Man City side.

They’ve despatched Aston Villa, Fulham, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth, Everton and Charlton in this run, but now face a City side that hammered them 6-3 in the reverse fixture only three months ago AND have won more often in the Premier League at Old Trafford than any other side (eight).

Erling Haaland’s not scored in his last two appearances and hasn’t gone three competitive matches without a goal since April when at Borussia Dortmund. There’s been no such worries for Marcus Rashford in front of goal, who’s in the best scoring run of his life – six games in a row (seven goals). His performances since the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo have helped to push United up to fourth in the league standings and in a strong position to qualify for the UCL next season.

@optaanalyst Manchester Derby Prediction & Premier League Preview! #football #PremierLeague #soccer #manchester #mancity #manunited #fyp #foryou #mcfc #mufc ♬ original sound – optaanalyst

Unlike the Manchester equivalent, the supercomputer thinks that the North London derby will see joy for the home side. Of the 10,000 simulations of the NLD that the supercomputer played out, 42.5% of them were won by Tottenham.

This will come as a shock to many – including myself. Of course, Arsenal lead the Premier League and haven’t lost in the competition since 4 September; winning nine and drawing two of their 11 matches since. However, the Gunners have picked up just two points in their last eight Premier League away games at Spurs, with Mikel Arteta losing all three of his attempts to seal NLD success at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium; including a 3-0 defeat there last season.

They’ve never won four successive home league games against Arsenal in their history, so they’ll be hoping that Harry Kane can work his magic yet again, with the England captain having scored more North London derby goals than any other player in the history of the fixture (14).

Away from the two derbies this weekend, potentially the most enthralling clash of the weekend is in Brighton, as they host Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool on Saturday afternoon.

Liverpool are heavy favourites in our predictor, here (53.9%), but interestingly, OptaJoe tells us that the Reds have earned just 28.6% of their Premier League points this season away from home (8/28), the lowest ratio in the division. However, Brighton have won the lowest share of their points in home games this term (41% – 11/27). Something’s got to give, and the supercomputer thinks Liverpool will break their hex.

Leicester City are another side with a great chance of picking up all three points on the road this weekend, with the supercomputer’s 54.7% likelihood of victory for the Foxes the highest of any away team on this matchweek. Their trip to Nottinghamshire sees them looking to complete their first league double over Nottingham Forest since 1971-72, a season that saw Forest relegated from the top-flight.

The supercomputer also predicts home wins for Aston Villa, Brentford and Champions League hopefuls Newcastle against Leeds United, Bournemouth and Fulham respectively, while Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. West Ham United is almost too close to call – just 0.4% separates the chances of victory for the home side (35.2%) and David Moyes’ Hammers (34.8%).

The final two games in the Premier League to discuss ahead of this weekend are monumentally important matches for current Chelsea boss Graham Potter and former Chelsea boss Frank Lampard. Both coaches are under extreme pressure following a run of poor results, but the supercomputer believes that both will experience joy this weekend for their respective clubs.

At kick-off to the new season, Chelsea would have been confident of a strong campaign under boss Thomas Tuchel, with a decent transfer window, bringing in players like Raheem Sterling, Kalidou Koulibaly, Marc Cucurella and Wesley Fofana. But Tuchel was sacked early in September and any pre-season aspirations for the league title are long gone.

Chelsea suffered a defeat at rivals Fulham on Thursday night, despite having the better chances and giving a debut to new loan signing João Félix. The Portuguese impressed, until a reckless challenge saw him dismissed on his debut after just 53 minutes. He’ll now be missing for the next three games, but luckily for Potter, they come up against a Crystal Palace side that have had little joy against them in recent years.

Chelsea have won their last 10 Premier League games against Crystal Palace. In their league history they’ve only ever won more consecutively against West Bromwich Albion (12 between 1989 and 2011), and Sunderland (11 between 2002 and 2010). The supercomputer predicts that they’ll extend this run to 11 matches on Sunday, with a 52.3% chance of victory.

Lampard’s Everton enter this gameweek in 18th position but could be level on points with bottom club Southampton if they lose this huge relegation six-pointer at Goodison Park on Saturday.

It’s very unlikely that Saints will be able to go above the Toffees, even with a win – they need an eight-goal swing, which even this Everton side surely can’t accommodate – but Lampard is under severe pressure to collect a victory.

Everton have lost their last three league games at Goodison Park – they haven’t lost four in a row there since 1958. However, Southampton’s record at the stadium is rancid, winning none of their last 17 league away trips there. Nathan Jones will be buoyed by back-to-back cup wins against Premier League opposition over the last week, including an excellent win over Man City on Tuesday in the Carabao Cup.

The supercomputer gives Everton the edge with a 42.7% chance of victory, but that won’t make Lampard and every Everton fan any less nervous.

Matchweek 19

Premier League Predictions: MD19 Quick Hits

Home Wins: Manchester United and *checks notes*… Leicester City.
Away Wins: Liverpool and Man City double, like the good old times.
Machine long shot: Nathan Jones to win his first Premier League game with Southampton.

Matchweek 19 sees the end of the festive and new year run of fixtures in the Premier League, with Thursday night’s top clash between Chelsea and Manchester City the finish to a seven-day run of English top-flight action.

– Is the supercomputer working overtime to churn out the predictions for you? Yes.
– Does it have genuine feelings that we need to consider? Who knows.
– Will Brentford shock Liverpool in the Premier League tonight? Well…

Premier League Predictions

No, says the supercomputer. Liverpool’s 56.8% chance of victory in London tonight is the highest chance of a win for any away side across this gameweek, while only Manchester United (62.4% vs. Bournemouth) have a higher chance of victory of all teams on MD19.

Brentford may be buoyed by the quickest recovery ever by a player to be stretchered off in their last game, with Ivan Toney tipped to play some part despite being lifted off the pitch against West Ham only three days ago. Toney loves playing at home in the Premier League, with 16 goal involvements (12 goals, four assists) in his last 19 appearances at the Brentford Community Stadium in the competition.

One man who certainly gets himself in positions to score but is struggling slightly with the important point of scoring those chances is Liverpool striker Darwin Núñez. The Uruguayan is averaging six shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season but has converted just 9.6% of those chances – well below Toney’s rate of 25.5%.

Arsenal face a stiff test on Tuesday evening, as Mikel Arteta’s side host third-place Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners have won their last 11 home games in all competitions against Newcastle, while they are also the only team with a 100% winning record in home Premier League games this season, winning all seven games at the Emirates. The Gunners are looking to win their opening eight home matches in a top-flight season for the first time. The chance of securing that win, according to the supercomputer? A cool 49.1%.

Leicester City are on a decent run of form, winning four and losing three of their last eight games (D1), but those three defeats all came against top six clubs: Man City, Newcastle and Liverpool. They scored all three goals at Anfield in their last match, but unfortunately, two of those were scored by Wout Faes in his own net.

The supercomputer must be looking at their recent good form against promoted sides in the Premier League (won nine of the last 10), to give them a 55.0% home win likelihood. Either that, or it’s miscomputed Faes’ own goals at Anfield.

The supercomputer fancies Manchester United (vs. Bournemouth) and Everton (vs. Brighton) to make it four home wins in the Premier League on Tuesday night, although in reality, the percentages are so close for Everton versus Brighton that a draw may be deemed more likely. Man Utd’s 62.4% win expectation is the highest in gameweek 19, with Marcus Rashford’s recent great form powering this number up – the England striker has scored in three successive appearances in all competitions for Erik ten Hag’s side, which is his best run of form since November 2019.

The supercomputer produced a jar of beetroot when questioned about Southampton versus Nottingham Forest. There were confused looks all around, until a man in the back, deep in a Rothmans yearbook, bellowed “RICKIE LAMBERT” over the crowd. Of course, this is the first time that Southampton have hosted Nottingham Forest in a competitive match since September 2011 in the Championship, when former beetroot factory worker Lambert bagged himself a hat-trick in a 3-2 win. Who says the supercomputer doesn’t do its research?

In a fixture between the 2022-23 Premier League’s worst home team (Saints: six points) and worst away team (Forest: two points), the AI-powered machine has churned out the prediction that Southampton are the more likely side to pick up three points (51.6%).

The only other home winner on Wednesday night will be Aston Villa, according to the supercomputer, as they are being given a 40.3% chance of defeating fellow Midlands side Wolves. Leeds versus West Ham looks very close to call, with the home side being given a 34.7% chance of beating the Hammers, who themselves have been given a 37.0% chance of grabbing an away win at Elland Road.

Antonio Conte’s starting to feel the pressure at Spurs, following poor form pre and post-Christmas. Spurs have won just one of their last five competitive games and have fallen way behind in the title race, while having to watch rivals Arsenal have an exceptional season.

The supercomputer is here to cheer up Tottenham fans though, as it thinks Spurs will pick up all three points at Selhurst Park on Wednesday night against Crystal Palace, led by former Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira. They’ve been given a 44.9% chance of winning.

The final game of the matchweek is arguably the most intriguing, with Chelsea hosting Manchester City at Stamford Bridge.

Both sides failed to win their last Premier League game, with the angry edition of Erling Haaland scoring once but lucky not to be sent off in their 1-1 home draw with Everton, while Chelsea played out a disappointing draw at Nottingham Forest by the same score.

After a great start as Chelsea boss, Graham Potter’s now won 15 points in 10 Premier League games as Blues’ manager since his first league match on 1 October – that’s a lower tally than Crystal Palace & Leicester (both 16 in 10).

In the other dugout, Pep Guardiola’s seen his side drop five points in the last three league games, which sees Arsenal lead the Premier League table by seven points. By the time this game is played, the Gunners could have a 10-point lead at the top. Guardiola has suffered eight competitive defeats against Chelsea as a manager – against no side has he lost more often. The pressure is on, but the supercomputer has confidence in the Spaniard and his side, giving them a 50.4% chance of finishing off gameweek 19 with a crucial victory.

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