If your favorite FCS football team loses this week, you may have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery drawing than with cozying up to an upcoming playoff game.
The number of teams in the mix for the 24-team playoff field is huge with two full weeks remaining in the regular season.
The bubble is going to burst for a bunch of them.
Below is a projection of the 2022 FCS playoff, mostly based on where teams stand two weeks out from Selection Sunday, but also with a projection of some necessary scenarios prior to Nov. 20.
Projected Bids by Conference
* – Projected automatic qualifier; other teams are projected as at-large selections
ASUN-WAC (1): *Abilene Christian
Big Sky (4): Idaho, Montana State, *Sacramento State, Weber State
Big South (1): *North Carolina A&T (in reality, the Gardner-Webb/North Carolina A&T winner)
CAA (4): Delaware, Elon, Richmond, *William & Mary
Missouri Valley (3): North Dakota, North Dakota State, *South Dakota State
Northeast (1): *Saint Francis
Ohio Valley (1): *Southeast Missouri
Patriot (2): Fordham, *Holy Cross
Pioneer (1): *Davidson (but more the Butler/Davidson/Dayton survivor)
Southern (4): Chattanooga, Furman, Mercer, *Samford
Southland (2): *Southeastern Louisiana, UIW (projecting Northwestern State to fall from the mix)
First Four Bubble Teams: Eastern Kentucky, Montana, New Hampshire, Youngstown State
Projected Seeds
Top eight seeds receive first-round byes
1. South Dakota State
2. Sacramento State
3. Montana State
4. North Dakota State
5. Holy Cross
6. Samford
7. UIW
8. William & Mary
Projected Pairings
Playoff games prior to the national championship are played at campus sites
Southeast Missouri at Chattanooga first-round winner at No. 1 seed South Dakota State
Elon at North Carolina A&T first-round winner at No. 8 seed William & Mary
Fordham at Delaware first-round winner at No. 5 seed Holy Cross
Idaho at Weber State first-round winner at No. 4 seed North Dakota State
Saint Francis at North Dakota first-round winner at No. 3 seed Montana State
Davidson at Mercer first-round winner at No. 6 seed Samford
Abilene Christian at Southeastern Louisiana first-round winner at No. 7 seed UIW
Richmond at Furman first-round winner at No. 2 seed Sacramento State
Key Dates to Know
Playoff Selection Show: Sunday, Nov. 20 (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
First Round: Nov. 26
Second Round: Dec. 2-3
Quarterfinals: Dec. 9-10
Semifinals: Dec. 16-17
Championship Game: Sunday, Jan. 8 at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas (2 p.m. ET, ABC)