Premier League Predictions
With the help of our trusty AI-powered supercomputer, we give Premier League predictions across the matches in each gameweek.
Premier League Predictions: MD2 Quick Hits
Home Wins: Manchester City to bamboozle Bournemouth as per tradition
Away Wins: Back West Ham to trouble yet-to-gel Forest
Machine long shot: Arsenal to struggle vs. Leicester?
In 2020, matchweek two served up a monstrous total of 44 goals so let’s hope for more of the same this weekend, especially if the scorching pitch-surface temperatures contribute to some hollow legs towards the end of games. Only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun, so it’s absolutely perfect that the early kick-off on Saturday is between Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa and Frank Lampard’s Everton. Like that bit in Heat when Pacino and De Niro finally appear together, all eyes will be trained on the technical areas to see which brooding Premier League legend will inspire his team to glory in the, er, heat.
The unusually noisy supercomputer has turned its internal fans up to 125% to cope and favours Aston Villa at 41.4% but Everton at 29.6% makes it a fairly even shout. Everton are still reeling from their terrible away record last season while Villa were maybe not as bad as some people, including most of their fans, thought in the game last weekend. Only Newcastle and Tottenham had more open play shots than Gerrard’s team, although crucially some of theirs did end up in the back of the opposition’s net.
Moving into the 3pm kick-off zone and the Emirates Stadium will see a game between two managers whose thoughtful methods have been exposed on documentaries. From drawing brains and hearts to sealing envelopes, these men will do what it takes to get their message across. Arsenal haven’t started a top-flight season with two wins and two clean sheets since 1971 when they were reigning champions, but although our friendly supercomputer rightly rates them as a 42.4% chance in this game, it gives Leicester almost 30% too, and if first half City turn up from last week then they might just pull off some sort of early shock. I can envisage it… can you?
It’s a long way from Newcastle to Brighton but the clubs are managed by Eddie Howe and Graham Potter respectively, so this is a sort of BBC4 arthouse version of the Gerrard vs. Lampard coaching battle from earlier in the day. MD1 was lovely for both sides but this will be a sterner test, although the fact that Albion and Newcastle lead the division in high turnovers that lead to shots (yes after one game, I know) suggests that this could be a ding dong summer classic on the Sussex coast.
There are no certainties in sport. Oh, actually there are: Manchester City will always beat Bournemouth. 16 games between them (10 in the Premier League) and 16 wins for the reigning champions. Scott Parker has tasted success at the Etihad before but the wise supercomputer gives Bournemouth only a 4.5% chance of leaving there on Saturday with three points. Erling Haaland’s home debut is something to look forward to but not if you play for AFC Bournemouth.
Southampton vs. Leeds is the fabled machine’s most even fixture of the weekend. Yes, Saints have lost their last two Premier League games by four goals to one and yes Leeds started the season by beating Wolves but they still gave up some red hot xG opportunities and Southampton are generally better in their Solent base. Why not settle for a draw and plenty of drinks breaks? Makes sense. Keep hydrated.
Talking of Wolves, they start their home campaign by hosting Liverpool-humbling Fulham, as Marco Silva, against one of his former clubs, prepares to start his season-long demonstration that his version of Aleksandar Mitrovic is top-flight ready and hungry for goals. The win prediction model enjoyed Fulham’s bright start but is backing Wolves as strong favourites to emerge with their first three points of the season. They’re more dangerous than you think, very much like actual wolves.
Saturday concludes with what could be the game of the weekend as troubled superclub Manchester United travel down to Brentford to face a side who will be more than happy to land some more wounds on the old giant. Go back to the 1990s and tell someone that Manchester United would only have a 40.8% chance of beating little Brentford in a league game and they’d grab you by the shoulder and march you out of the room, but that’s where we are. Erik ten Hag played Christian Eriksen as a number nine last week, something that Brentford didn’t choose to do when they had access to his services last season. He could be the difference, or he could be left fully reminded of what the Bees can do when they work up a head of steam.
The first ever Premier League Sunday in 1992 contained a Nottingham Forest home game and so does this one. Forest will play their first top-flight game at the City Ground since the 20th century but the supercomputer, while a committed fan of the excellent Forest-under-Clough film I Believe In Miracles, doesn’t believe the club’s ever-expanding squad will have a miracle up their sleeve when they face West Ham this weekend. West Ham are a massive 58.2% shot and the biggest likelihood of an away win in MD2. Yes, they were beaten by Manchester City last Sunday but in a way we all were.
Super Sunday concludes with a massive game as Tottenham travel to Chelsea in the battle of London superclubs whose prospects you’re not quite sure about yet but who are undoubtedly good. Chelsea are unbeaten in seven Premier League games against their capital rivals (W6 D1), conceding only one goal in that run, and the supercomputer makes them slight favourites, but Harry Kane is only a hat-trick away from overtaking Thierry Henry as the top-scoring London derby player in Premier League history. We know that August isn’t his favourite month of the year to unleash but even so…
The matchweek concludes on Monday night with Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace, the last fixture to ever feature a player born in the 1970s (Julian Speroni), and one that saw a 9-0 home win in the 1990s. This is the 2020s, though, and after dropping two points in their opening game, Jürgen Klopp’s team simply have to win this one or, somewhat ridiculously, the crisis talk will be all too real. The supercomputer thinks it will happen and if Darwin Núñez is in the starting XI then it very probably will.
Premier League Predictions: MD1 Quick Hits
Home Wins: Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United
Away Wins: Liverpool and Manchester City
Best Chance of a Draw: Leeds United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
The 2022-23 Premier League will be different from previous seasons. There will be mid-season break for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, teams can now use five subs, and Mike Dean will be confined to wearing a full referee kit in a side room at Stockley Park. But fear not, the supercomputer returns for another campaign of Premier League predictions.
The 31st Premier League season kicks off on Friday night with a London derby under the lights at Selhurst Park, as Crystal Palace host Arsenal.
Palace beat Arsenal 3-0 in their last meeting but have never previously won consecutive matches against the Gunners in league competition. Our supercomputer gives them a 29.7% chance of doing that this time around – lower than the chance of an Arsenal away win (41.3%). The Gunners’ strong pre-season and summer transfer window acquisition of Gabriel Jesus should make them a dangerous side to face on the opening weekend.
The Eagles are led by former fans favourite Patrick Vieira, a man who knows a thing or two about a red card. Arsenal have had more players sent off in their opening game of a Premier League campaign than any other side (six), with Vieira on the receiving end of one of those, in 2000-01. Not content with being sent off on the opening day that season, he was then sent off in Arsenal’s second game two days later. A much calmer man in the dugout now, it must be said – just don’t invade the pitch and goad him.
Fulham may have been the entertainers on their way to the Championship title in 2021-22, scoring 106 goals, but that doesn’t curry favour with the supercomputer. Hosting Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool side isn’t the most welcome start to any side’s season, but the fixture computer doesn’t factor requests. Earlier this week we revealed that starting a Premier League campaign well gives you a strong chance of surviving relegation, but with just an 8.8% chance of a Fulham victory given by the supercomputer, they have the lowest chance of winning across the competition this matchweek.
They may have lost out to Manchester City in the Premier League title race last season, as well as a defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League final, but our supercomputer is giving Liverpool the best chance of topping the standings at the end of this campaign, pre-season.
At the other end of the table, the supercomputer has already rated the three newly promoted sides as having the highest chance of being relegated this season, and we’ll get to see Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest play in the traditional 3 p.m. Saturday slot on MD1.
Scott Parker’s Cherries side host Aston Villa in their first game back in the Premier League – a repeat of their first-ever game in the competition in August 2015, which Villa won 1-0. With a 38.1% chance of an away win, we might even see a repeat of that result.
Nottingham Forest start life back in the Premier League with an away trip to Newcastle United. This will be Forest’s first Premier League game in 23 years and 82 days – the longest-ever gap between matches in the competition. The supercomputer doesn’t expect it to end in success. Newcastle have a 51.1% chance of victory, compared to Forest’s 21.1%.
Tottenham Hotspur have a home game with Southampton to kick off the Premier League season. Antonio Conte’s Spurs side have been given the highest chance of victory across all 10 hosts of a top-flight game in England this weekend, at 62.9%. Their deadly attacking duo might be powering the supercomputer’s thoughts, as only Alan Shearer (14) and Andy Cole (11) have scored more or as many Premier League goals against Southampton than Harry Kane (11) and Son Heung-min (10).
This is the 124th English top-flight season since the EFL began in 1888, and Everton are the team to have played in the most of these – 2022-23 will be their 119th in the top division. The supercomputer doesn’t respect that history when it comes to predicting their chances of success this weekend, though.
After narrowly avoiding relegation last season, Toffees’ boss Frank Lampard will face the club that gave him his best years as a player – Chelsea. Despite winning each of their last four games against Chelsea at Goodison Park – Chelsea’s longest current active streak of defeats against a league opponent – the supercomputer doesn’t rate their chances of making it five in a row (22.8%), with Thomas Tuchel’s side having the third best chance of victory among the 10 away teams on MD1 (49.8%).
Raheem Sterling looks set to make his competitive debut for Chelsea in this match, and the England forward is one of only 10 players to score a hat-trick on the opening matchweek of a Premier League season.
Leeds United’s meeting with Wolves at Elland Road is the only other Premier League game on Saturday, and the data-crunching contraption gives this fixture the highest chance of a draw across the 10 matches on the opening matchweek (29.3%).
On paper, a trip to the London Stadium to face West Ham United is a tricky game to start a Premier League campaign with. Not for reigning champions Manchester City, according to the supercomputer.
Man City are being given a 63.3% chance of winning in London on Sunday, with the current 13-game unbeaten run for Pep Guardiola’s side against the Hammers – and City’s work in the transfer market to bring in superstar striker Erling Haaland – forcing the AI-powered machine to heavily back the away win.
Before that meeting, Leicester City host Brentford and Manchester United’s Old Trafford will entertain Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday afternoon. Both home teams are being given a shade under 50% chance of victory in these two matches.
Erik ten Hag becomes the eighth different man to take charge of Man Utd in the competition since Sir Alex Ferguson retired – six of the previous seven have won their opening match, with the only one to lose also being Dutch (Louis van Gaal).
The new season is upon us. Sit tight and see if the supercomputer’s predictions play out.
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