We have looked into our crystal ball to predict the outcome of the Top 5 European Leagues in the 2021-22 season. Are we expecting a season of celebration or worries of relegation for your club? Find out what our super computer says as we look at who will be crowned champion in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
Premier League 2021-22 Prediction
Manchester City are eyeing up a sixth English Premier League title this season and will be hoping it’s an easier pathway to success than last season, having found themselves eighth in the table on Christmas Day. However our AI model, courtesy of our friends at Stats Perform, does believe Pep Guardiola’s side are favourites to claim the trophy. Liverpool are leading the chasing pack from the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea whilst it’s also set to be an intriguing battle at the bottom too.
Bundesliga 2021-22 Prediction
Having secured a 30th Bundesliga title last season, will Bayern Munich make it a magical ten in a row this time around? Julian Nagelsmann’s maiden season in charge will see challenges come from the likes of Borussia Dortmund and his former side RB Leipzig, but our super computer, courtesy of the AI Team at Stats Perform, seem very confident that Bayern will be victorious once again.
La Liga 2021-22 Prediction
For the first time in 18 years, Lionel Messi’s talents won’t grace La Liga as he moves on to pastures new leaving the likes of Memphis Depay and Sergio Aguero will the task of firing them to success. However, it was the two sides from Madrid who took it until the final day of the 2020-21 season for a winner to be crowned with Atlético coming out on top. But will a change in management at Real, with Carlo Ancelotti coming back for a second spell in charge, be enough to wrestle the title back?
Ligue 1 2021-22 Prediction
Not only is the French top-flight packed with exciting young talent, but it looks to be an intriguing one on the field as well. Lille’s took the title last time out but it has been all change in the Nord with Jocelyn Gourvennec taking charge following Christophe Galtier’s departure to Nice. With some impressive transfer coups this summer, the expectation is that PSG will be best placed to reclaim the crown and equal Saint Etienne’s record of 10 Ligue 1 titles.
Our League Prediction Model Explained:
- The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) given each team’s attacking and defensive quality.
- The team’s attacking and defensive qualities are based on four years of historic results, with more weighting given to their most recent results.
- The model will take into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes against and reward them accordingly. For example, scoring against Manchester City is worth more than scoring vs. Newcastle.
- We can simulate the upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs.
- Finally, we simulate the outcome of the season 10,000 times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.
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