Can Celtic go level with Rangers for record title wins? Who will qualify for Europe? Who will suffer relegation to the Championship? We look at all the key questions with our Scottish Premiership 2024-25 predictions via the Opta supercomputer.
Scottish Premiership Season Predictions: The Quick Hits
Title Favourites: Celtic
European Qualification Favourites: Rangers, Hearts and Kilmarnock
Relegation Favourites: St. Johnstone
The 2024-25 Scottish Premiership season gets under way on Saturday, with Rangers looking to overthrow rivals Celtic in the race for the title for the first time since 2020-21.
Brendan Rodgers’ side won the league by eight points last season, and the dominance that has seen them win 12 of the last 13 titles doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down.
Hearts and Kilmarnock will be looking to build on impressive campaigns last time out, while Aberdeen will want to avoid finishing in the bottom six again under new manager Jimmy Thelin.
Dundee United are back in the top flight and looking to re-establish themselves, while Ross County continue in the Premiership following their relegation play-off victory over Raith Rovers in June.
Here, we use the Opta supercomputer to predict the outcome of the first phase of the 2024-25 Scottish Premiership season.
But first, an essential thing to understand is that these projections are based on what the Opta supercomputer knows today. Essentially, if every game in the 2024-25 Scottish Premiership was to be played today, this is how we see the first phase finishing. Of course, these projections will change throughout the season, thousands of times, based on real-life data powering the seasonal simulations.
The Title Race
Brace yourself; the supercomputer thinks… Celtic will put themselves in pole position to win the title. I know, we were shocked too.
Sarcasm aside, it does feel like a big ask for Rangers to protect their record as having the most Scottish top-flight title wins, with their 55 overall now only one ahead of Celtic’s 54.
Due to the nature of the Scottish Premiership, with the first phase of 33 games leading into a split where the top six play each other once in their last five games, as do the bottom six, we can only predict where teams will be placed at the end of the first phase. That is usually a fair indicator of who will go on to finish where, though.
Rodgers’ men are given a 62.4% chance of being top at the split, and should they go on to retain their league crown again, they will go level with Rangers for most titles overall.
Celtic eventually eased to the title last season, crucially beating their Old Firm rivals three times in the league (D1).
The only major business done this summer by the Hoops has been to replace Joe Hart with Kasper Schmeichel in goal, but if their pre-season is anything to go by, it could be even tougher than usual to stop the defending champions.
On their tour of the United States, as well as thrashing D.C. United 4-0, Celtic beat both Manchester City (4-3) and Chelsea (4-1). It must be considered that they were two weeks ahead in their preparations for the new season compared their Premier League opponents, but they were still mightily impressive results.
Rangers have had a far less successful pre-season, losing three and drawing one of their four friendlies, but of course results in friendlies don’t necessarily mean anything.
Philippe Clement laid some good foundations in his first season at Ibrox and will be looking to take his team to the next level, and it’s a sign of the faith the club has in the Belgian that he signed a new deal until 2028 on the eve of the first game of the new season.
Clement’s side have a 37.3% chance of being top after the first phase, which would position them nicely to usurp Celtic and win only their second title since 2011.
Mohamed Diomande has joined permanently after his loan spell last season, while Connor Barron arrived from Aberdeen and Vaclav Cerny has come in on loan from Wolfsburg among various additions for Rangers this summer. In terms of outgoings though, the most notable is Connor Goldson. Captain James Tavernier was also linked with a move away but appears set to extend his nine-year stay.
Clement’s men were strong from dead-ball situations last season, with their 25 set-piece goals the most in the division, while they also only conceded three headed goals, the fewest in the division.
Whether they can push Celtic all the way this time could largely depend on improving that head-to-head record in Old Firm derbies.
No team other than Celtic or Rangers has won the title in the Scottish top flight since Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen did so in 1984-85. The supercomputer doesn’t see that run ending.
The next likeliest title winner outside of Glasgow is Hearts, who only finish first at the split in 0.3% of simulations.
Who Could Qualify for Europe?
Steven Naismith’s Hearts might not be favourites for the title, but they are favourites to finish in third spot again and qualify for the second qualifying round of the Europa League. They sit in third at the split in 57.6% of simulations, and fourth in 20.4%.
Keeping last season’s top scorer Lawrence Shankland will be key, but like Rangers, they will also look to rely on their defensive strength from set-pieces again. Hearts only conceded one goal from a corner in the league last season, with no other Premiership side conceding fewer than five.
They finished 12 points ahead of fourth-place Kilmarnock last season, but Derek McInnes’ side have a 14.2% chance of coming third after the first phase, and a 24.4% possibility of being fourth.
If Hearts are strong at defending set-pieces, Killie are hard to break down in open play. Only Celtic and Rangers recorded fewer than their 27 open-play goals conceded, while they also only conceded two goals from penalties, the fewest in the division.
St. Mirren and Dundee will both have been pleased with their top-six finishes in 2023-24, and might fancy their chances of doing even better, even if the supercomputer isn’t so sure. The Paisley side have a 13.9% chance of being in the top four after the first phase, while the Dee – who had the youngest average starting age in the division last season at 26 years and 20 days – are handed just a 5.1% likelihood.
Aberdeen will certainly be hoping to improve on last season’s seventh place, and they are given a respectable 13.4% likelihood of being third at the split under former IF Elfsborg manager Thelin, and a 22.7% probability of being fourth.
Hibernian and Motherwell are outside shouts for the top four at the split at 14.1% and 6.8% respectively.
Who Will be Bottom After the First Phase?
Ross County maintained their place in the Premiership after a convincing 6-1 aggregate win over Raith Rovers in last season’s relegation play-off.
However, the supercomputer gives them a 30.6% chance of being bottom after 33 games, which would put them up against it to again preserve their top-flight status.
Livingston were the only side to drop to the second tier last season, replaced by Dundee United. They’ll hope to emulate their city rivals Dundee, who finished sixth in their first season back in the top flight last term.
Jim Goodwin’s men have a 6.9% possibility of doing the same, but have a larger 12.5% chance of being bottom after the first phase and in danger of going straight back down.
St. Johnstone struggled for goals last season, scoring only 29, the joint-fewest with Livingston. They also had the lowest expected goals total in the Premiership (35.6 xG) though did finish ahead of Ross County on goal difference to avoid the play-off. They are the favourites to be bottom at the split this time though, having been given a 37.1% likelihood of being 12th after 33 games.
Motherwell might be reliant on their powers of recovery again, with no team winning as many as their 19 points from losing positions in the league last season. They came in useful as they finished 18 points off the bottom of the table, and the supercomputer sees them regress and end the first phase in 12th in only 5.6% of sims.
For those interested, neither Celtic nor Rangers were bottom after 33 games in any of the 10,000 current simulations.
Opta-Simulated Scottish Premiership Table
After simulating the first 33 matchdays of the Scottish Premiership 2024-25 season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and therefore rank teams positionally. Here’s the Opta supercomputer results from those simulations:
1st: Celtic
2nd: Rangers
3rd: Hearts
4th: Kilmarnock
5th: Aberdeen
6th: Hibernian
7th: St. Mirren
8th: Motherwell
9th: Dundee
10th: Dundee United
11th: Ross County
12th: St. Johnstone
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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