Group E is poised finely heading into the final matchday at Euro 2024. We look ahead to Wednesday’s clash in Stuttgart with our Ukraine vs Belgium prediction and preview.
Ukraine vs Belgium Stats: The Key Insights
- Belgium are the favourites to win against Ukraine, triumphing in 56.1% of the Opta supercomputer pre-match simulations.
- Ukraine are looking to reach the knockout stage of a major tournament for a third time, also doing so at the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2020.
- Belgium haven’t lost their final group game at any of their last six appearances at a major tournament (W5 D1).
Everything is left to play for when Belgium meet Ukraine in Stuttgart on Wednesday, with both sides hoping for Euro 2024 progression from the tightest group in the tournament’s history.
For the first time in the European Championship’s 64-year history, all four teams in a specific group are level points going into Matchday 3.
The omens are positive for Domenico Tedesco’s men as Belgium haven’t lost their final group game at any of their last six appearances at a major tournament (W5 D1), since a 2-0 loss against Turkey as hosts at Euro 2000.
Yet this position for the world’s third-best side according to FIFA’s global rankings could have been avoided, if not for a shock 1-0 defeat to Slovakia on MD 1.
Belgium responded to that surprise upset with a 2-0 win over Romania on Saturday as Youri Tielemans and Kevin De Bruyne were on target. Romelu Lukaku had a goal ruled out for offside in the game, taking his disallowed tally at the tournament so far up to three.
Tedesco may not be too concerned by the Slovakia defeat, considering Belgium have won six of their last seven group stage games at the European Championship – their only failure coming in the aforementioned Group E opener.
Across the FIFA World Cup and Euros combined, the Red Devils have also won 14 of their last 18 group stage matches (D1 L3), only failing to reach the first knockout round in one of their last six major tournaments (2022 World Cup).
To further boost Tedesco’s confidence, Belgium have lost just one of their last 17 games in all competitions (W11 D5) – no prizes for guessing which one that was.
Indeed, since the start of 2023, that sole defeat is the joint-fewest by any nation at the Euros heading into MD 3, along with Switzerland, who drew 1-1 with Germany on Sunday to keep their own streak going.
Midfield maestro De Bruyne could once again be pivotal at Stuttgart Arena as the Manchester City star hopes to keep his nation’s hopes alive.
De Bruyne has been directly involved in 31 goals in his last 32 appearances for Belgium in all competitions (12 goals, 19 assists), while he has scored three goals in his last five games for his country, as many as in his previous 17.
Jérémy Doku is another to keep an eye on. Across the first two rounds of group-stage action in Germany, the Belgian winger completed more dribbles (9) than any other player, while only Joshua Kimmich created more chances from open play (8) than Doku’s six.
Yet Ukraine will by no means be pushovers. Serhiy Rebrov’s side were stunned in an opening 3-0 defeat to Romania but responded with a 2-1 victory over Slovakia last time out.
That maintained a peculiar Ukraine record at the Euros of either not scoring (8 games) or scoring exactly two goals (5 games) with their 2-1 win over Slovakia on MD2. In fact, all four of their wins at the European Championship have all been via a 2-1 scoreline.
Mykola Shaparenko levelled after Ivan Schranz’s opener for Slovakia on Saturday before Roman Yarmechuk delivered a late winner, with the Ukrainian left in tears at full-time after his heroics.
Yaremchuk has now been involved in five goals in his last seven international appearances in all competitions, scoring three and assisting two. The winger has averaged a goal or assist every 53 minutes across those outings, with four of those coming as a substitute (two goals, two assists).
Rebrov will know Yaremchuk will be pivotal once more if Ukraine are to reach the knockout stages of a major tournament for a third time, also doing so at the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2020.
Concerningly for Ukraine, however, all four of their MD3 group stage games have ended 1-0, losing three of those – against England in 2012, Poland in 2016 and Austria in 2020. They won the first in 2006 against Tunisia and Rebrov will be desperate for a repeat in Stuttgart.
Ukraine vs Belgium Head-to-Head
This will be the first-ever meeting between Ukraine and Belgium but there should still be concern from Rebrov when considering their opponents’ record in such fixtures.
Belgium are unbeaten in their last 22 matches when facing a side for the first time (W13 D9), since losing 1-0 in a friendly against Egypt in March 1999.
Yet it is not all bad news for Ukraine, who have only lost one of their last 11 matches when facing a team for the first time (W5 D5), going down 1-0 against Malta in June 2017.
Ukraine vs Belgium Prediction
Belgium are backed by the Opta supercomputer to triumph in this decisive Group E meeting, winning 56.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Ukraine secure a shock victory in just 20.5% of sims, while the draw – which could still send both sides through – was forecast more often in 23.4% of data-led sims.
Belgium are in the driving seat in this group, with a 86.7% chance of progression in Opta’s tournament predictions. Ukraine’s likelihood of doing the same is ranked at 44.8%.
Ukraine vs Belgium Squads
Ukraine
Anatolii Trubin, Andrii Lunin, Heorhii Bushchan, Bohdan Mykhailichenko, Illia Zabarnyi, Maksym Talovierov, Mykola Matviienko, Oleksandr Svatok, Oleksandr Tymchyk, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Valerii Bondar, Vitalii Mykolenko, Yukhym Konoplia, Andrii Yarmolenko, Heorhii Sudakov, Mykhailo Mudryk, Mykola Shaparenko, Oleksandr Zubkov, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Serhii Sydorchuk, Taras Stepanenko, Volodymyr Brazhko, Artem Dovbyk, Roman Yaremchuk, Viktor Tsyhankov, Vladyslav Vanat.
Head coach: Serhiy Rebrov
Belgium
Koen Casteels, Matz Sels, Thomas Kaminski, Arthur Theate, Axel Witsel, Jan Vertonghen, Maxim De Cuyper, Thomas Meunier, Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, Amadou Onana, Arthur Vermeeren, Aster Vranckx, Kevin De Bruyne, Orel Mangala, Youri Tielemans, Charles De Ketelaere, Dodi Lukébakio, Jérémy Doku, Johan Bakayoko, Leandro Trossard, Loïs Openda, Romelu Lukaku, Yannick Carrasco.
Head coach: Domenico Tedesco
Ukraine vs Belgium Predicted Lineups
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