We look ahead to Saturday’s Group F game at Euro 2024 with our Turkey vs Portugal prediction and preview.
Turkey vs Portugal Stats: The Key Insights
- Portugal are favourites to make it two wins from two in Dortmund. The Opta supercomputer sees Roberto Martínez’s side beat Turkey in 62% of simulations.
- Turkey had the most shots and recorded the highest expected goals total of any team on Matchday 1.
- Cristiano Ronaldo is yet to score against Turkey despite playing against them three times.
Turkey and Portugal both got their Euro 2024 campaigns off to winning starts on Matchday 1, though both had to work very hard to secure the points.
Vincenzo Montella’s Turkey were involved in arguably the game of the tournament so far as they eventually fought off a valiant challenge from Euros debutants Georgia, winning 3-1 in Dortmund. They will be looking to win their first two games at a major tournament (World Cup/Euros) for the first time ever.
In fact, Turkey will equal their most victories in a single edition of the European Championship if they can beat Portugal (two in 2008), while the only time they have ever won more than two matches at a major tournament was at the 2002 World Cup (4).
Turkey were impressive against Georgia in what was a very attacking game. Mert Müldür gave them the lead before Georges Mikautadze equalised. A wonderful strike from Arda Güler put Turkey back in front, and Kerem Aktürkoglu sealed things with a breakaway goal after Georgia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili had gone up for a corner at the other end.
Turkey had the most shots (22) and the highest expected goals total (3.01) of any team on MD1 at Euro 2024. The danger came from all angles, too, with 11 different players having at least one shot for Montella’s side; a joint-high in the opening round of the group stage along with hosts Germany (11 vs Scotland).
Hakan Çalhanoglu ran the show for Turkey, completing 88 of his 95 passes (92.6%) against Georgia; the most by a Turkey player in a European Championship game. The Inter midfielder also had the joint-most shots (4) and final-third entries (12) in the match.
Portugal left it late against Czech Republic on MD1, with substitute Francisco Conceição scoring a stoppage-time winner in a 2-1 victory as Martínez’s men came back from a goal down to secure three points.
Lukás Provod gave the Czechs the lead before a Robin Hranác own goal levelled things up. Conceição then grabbed a 92nd-minute winner after good work from fellow sub Pedro Neto.
Portugal tend to do well at this stage of the Euros, having only lost one of their last nine group stage games in the competition (W4 D4). That defeat came against Germany in 2021 (4-2). Indeed, their last group-stage loss in the Euros against anyone other than Germany was back at Euro 2008 versus Switzerland (2-0).
Vitinha was particularly impressive against Czech Republic, completing more passes under high-intensity pressure (59) than any other player on MD1 of Euro 2024, while only Toni Kroos (30) made more line-breaking passes than the 24-year-old in the opening round of the group stage (21).
Pepe made history in the game, becoming the oldest player in European Championship history (41 years, 113 days). Cristiano Ronaldo went up to third in the list (39y, 134d), while his start also meant he has now competed in six editions of the competition.
Ronaldo didn’t get on the scoresheet but the former Real Madrid and Manchester United star will want to do so this time. Ronaldo has never scored against Turkey, despite playing three matches against them. Only against Albania has the 39-year-old ever played more matches (4) without finding the back of the net for Portugal.
Turkey vs Portugal Head-to-Head
This will be the fourth meeting between Turkey and Portugal at a European Championship. Portugal have won all three of their previous encounters in the tournament, without conceding a single goal: 1-0 in 1996 (group stage), 2-0 in 2000 (quarter-finals) and 2-0 in 2008 (group stage).
In all competitions, Turkey have only won two of their nine matches against Portugal (L7), both in friendlies: 3-1 in 1955 and 3-1 in 2012.
Their last meeting was in March 2022 when Portugal beat Turkey 3-1 in Porto on their way to the 2022 World Cup qualification play-off final.
Turkey vs Portugal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is backing Portugal to win this one, with Ronaldo and co. victorious in 62% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Turkey make it two wins from two themselves in 17.8% of sims, while a draw that would still likely ensure qualification for the knockout stage for both occurred in 20.2%.
Turkey vs Portugal Squads
Turkey
Altay Bayindir, Mert Günok, Ugurcan Çakir, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Ahmetcan Kaplan, Kaan Ayhan, Merih Demiral, Mert Müldür, Samet Akaydin, Zeki Çelik, Arda Güler, Ferdi Kadioglu, Hakan Çalhanoglu, Irfan Can Kahveci, Ismail Yüksek, Okay Yokuslu, Orkun Kökçü, Salih Özcan, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Bertug Yildirim, Cenk Tosun, Kenan Yildiz, Kerem Aktürkoglu, Semih Kiliçsoy, Yunus Akgün, Yusuf Yazici.
Head coach: Vincenzo Montella
Portugal
Diogo Costa, José Sá, Rui Patrício, António Silva, Danilo Pereira, Diogo Dalot, Gonçalo Inácio, João Cancelo, Nélson Semedo, Nuno Mendes, Pepe, Rúben Dias, Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, João Palhinha, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Neves, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Jota, Francisco Conceição, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leão.
Head coach: Roberto Martínez
Turkey vs Portugal Predicted Lineups
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