We look ahead to the Euro 2024 clash between two of the tournament’s heavyweights, as Spain face Italy in Group B.
Spain vs Italy Stats: The Key Insights
- Spain are the favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, given a 45.1% probability of winning the game.
- This will be the 11th encounter between these footballing superpowers at a major tournament.
- Italy have lost just one of their last 10 matches against Spain.
Spain and reigning European champions Italy both won their opening matches at Euro 2024, and will now face off in Gelsenkirchen on Thursday.
But both sides endured differing performances in their respective encounters, with La Roja cruising to a 3-0 victory over Croatia to condemn their opponents to their joint-heaviest ever defeat at a major international tournament.
However, Luciano Spalletti’s pre-match words would still have been ringing in his Italy players’ ears when Nedim Bajrami’s goal after 23 seconds gave Albania a shock lead – the fastest goal ever scored at a European Championship.
Yet two goals in five minutes from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolò Barella ensured the Italians’ quest of becoming the second team to win back-to-back Euros tournaments after Thursday’s opponents got off to a good start.
The Azzurri’s comeback success saw them win their opening encounter in four consecutive major tournaments (European Championships and World Cups) for the first time in their history, and they will look to build on that against Spain.
The Italians have so often in the past relied on the experience and know-how of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci to lay a solid foundation for success, but entered Euro 2024 with the sixth-youngest squad (26.5 years on average).
Much was said of Spalletti’s selection heading into the tournament, with many believing they would be proved right when Italy fell behind early on against Albania.
But the exuberance of youth shone through, particularly in Riccardo Calafiori, who starred in Bologna’s qualification for the Champions League in the 2023-24 season, and then shined on the international stage in only his third appearance for his nation.
Young talent also came to the fore for Spain. The emergence of Lamine Yamal, who became the youngest player to feature for any team in European Championship history when he started against Croatia, had the most touches in the opposition box (6), created the joint-most chances (3), and grabbed an assist for Dani Carvajal’s first international goal.
Álvaro Morata, who is captaining his side for the first time at a major tournament, became Spain’s outright second-highest goalscorer at major tournaments, behind only David Villa (13). Indeed, in European Championship history, only Cristiano Ronaldo and Michel Platini have netted more goals than Morata (7), but the striker could miss this game after coming off injured versus Croatia.
Spain will continue to boast the majority of possession in most of their upcoming fixtures, but under Luis de la Fuente, they have found a new way of playing. They had less possession than Croatia at the weekend, the first time in 136 competitive matches they’ve had less of the ball than their opponents (since the 2008 Euros final vs Germany).
Spain vs Italy Head-to-Head
This will be the 11th encounter between Spain and Italy at a major tournament, across the Euros (8) and World Cup (3), a record between two European nations.
It’s the fifth consecutive European Championship tournament at which they’ve met going back to 2008, which is also a record.
Italy, however, have only lost one of their 10 matches against Spain in the Euros and World Cup (W4 D5) – that sole defeat came in the final at Euro 2012.
However, Spain have had the better of their previous meetings with Italy, winning their last two encounters, both in the Nations League, but have never won three consecutive matches against the Azzurri.
La Roja have also prevailed in all three of their previous European Championship meetings with the reigning champions of the competition, reaching the final in each edition.
Spain vs Italy Prediction
Spain are made the favourites for this, with a 45.1% win probability according to the Opta supercomputer. Italy’s chances are ranked at 27.0%, with the draw a runner at 27.9%.
Spain vs Italy Squads
Spain
Álex Remiro, David Raya, Unai Simón, Álex Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Dani Carvajal, Dani Vivian, Jesús Navas, Marc Cucurella, Nacho, Robin Le Normand, Álex Baena, Fabián Ruiz, Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Álvaro Morata, Ayoze Pérez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Joselu, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.
Head coach: Luis de la Fuente
Italy
Alex Meret, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Guglielmo Vicario, Alessandro Bastoni, Alessandro Buongiorno, Andrea Cambiaso, Federico Dimarco, Federico Gatti, Gianluca Mancini, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Matteo Darmian, Raoul Bellanova, Riccardo Calafiori, Bryan Cristante, Davide Frattesi, Jorginho, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Michael Folorunsho, Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Fagioli, Federico Chiesa, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Mateo Retegui, Mattia Zaccagni, Stephan El Shaarawy.
Head coach: Luciano Spalletti
Spain vs Italy Predicted Lineups
Our football newsletter ‘Stat, Viz, Quiz’ is going all in on Euro 2024 this summer, so sign up to receive exclusive content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.